Heat faces eighth-seed challenge first time this century; how Miami stacks up with Bucks
.JPG "Milwaukee Bucks’ Giannis Antetokounmpo reacts in front of Miami Heat’s Max Strus after making a basket and being fouled during the first half of an NBA basketball game Wednesday, March 2, 2022, in Milwaukee")
The Heat enters these NBA playoffs in a position they haven’t occupied in 20 previous postseason appearances this century: as an eighth seed.
Miami was a No. 8 the first three times it ever made the playoffs, including its fourth year of existence (1991-92). On two of those occasions, Michael Jordan ushered the Heat out of the playoffs with three-game sweeps.
This series against Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Bucks seemingly isn’t as quite the insurmountable challenge that Jordan’s juggernaut Bulls posed for those early-year Heat teams. After all, Miami made deep playoff runs two of the past three years before this maddeningly inconsistent season.
But in some ways, this series -- which begins with Game 1 on Sunday at Fiserv Forum (5:30 p.m., TNT, Bally Sports Sun) -- feels nearly as daunting. Miami enters having won 14 fewer games than the 58-win Bucks this year, as big underdogs in Game 1 (Milwaukee is a 9.5 point favorite) and at a significant size deficit.
“You’re talking about an MVP in GA, all the shooting,” Jimmy Butler, asked to look ahead to the Bucks, said after scoring 13 of his 31 in the fourth quarter against Chicago on Friday. “They’ve been together for a while. It’s going to be tough. We have to play damn near perfect basketball, which we’re capable of. I think we’re going to be OK.”
Only four times in NBA history has an eighth seed beaten a one seed, the most recent in 2011, when Memphis ousted the top-seeded Spurs.
These teams have history, and the narrative has changed, from a Heat team that could frustrate Antetokoumpo to one that has no answers for the Bucks’ MVP and overall size and skill.
A year after losing to the Heat in a five-game second round series in the Orlando bubble, the sixth-seed Bucks swept the third-seeded Heat out of the 2021 playoffs, winning by margins of 2, 34, 29 and 17, the first step in their journey to an NBA title.
Antetokounmpo dominated the Heat in that series, averaging 23.5 points, 15.0 rebounds and 7.8 assists.
The Heat won the first two games of the season series this year, on Jan. 12 and 14, behind an offensive eruption from Gabe Vincent, who scored 28 and 27. But those games weren’t a real measure of anything, because Milwaukee played with Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton.
The two meetings in Milwaukee this season were more reflective of the gap between the teams.
Milwaukee won the first, 123-115, behind 35 points, 15 rebounds and 11 assists from Antetokounmpo, who on Friday was named one of three finalists for the NBA’s MVP award.
In their subsequent meeting, the first game after the All Star break, Spoelstra inserted Heat addition Kevin Love into the starting lineup, and nothing went right.
Milwaukee led by as many as 38 and coasted, 128-99, even though Antetokounmpo was limited to just six minutes because of an injury.
Those two February games in Wisconsin spotlighted the biggest challenges that Miami must navigate in this series:
▪ Milwaukee’s size and defensive excellence. The Bucks start 6-11 Antetokounmpo with 7-1 Brook Lopez. The Heat has been starting 6-9 Bam Adebayo with 6-5 Max Strus, who comes off a magical 31-point game on Friday against the Bulls.
Expecting Strus to defend Lopez or Antetokounmpo appears unreasonable, but Spoelstra has hesitated to reinsert Caleb Martin (6-5 but a better defender than Strus) in the starting lineup after moving him to the bench during the All-Star break.
Spoelstra also seems comfortable playing the 6-8 Love off the bench, where he has been more productive.
And starting the 6-11 Cody Zeller with Adebayo isn’t a realistic option because neither can stretch the floor as a three-point shooter.
That Heat’s size disadvantage has left Miami at a deficit on the boards; Milwaukee outrebounded Miami 51-44 and 57-45 in their most recent meetings. The Bucks had 27 second-chance points in those games.
Meanwhile, the Heat - the NBA’s lowest scoring team - must somehow find a way to generate consistent offense against a team that was fourth in defensive rating, allowing just 110.9 points per 100 possessions.
“They’re a great defensive team, great team overall,” Strus said.
▪ The Heat’s difficulty controlling the Bucks’ shooters and penetration off the dribble.
The Bucks were 10th in three-point field goal percentage at 36.8, while the Heat was 27th at 34.4.
But that margin was more lopsided in the season series, with Milwaukee closing at 38.7 percent on threes and the Heat at 29.1 percent.
Jrue Holiday shot 12 for 25 on threes against the Heat this season, while averaging 18.8 points and 7.5 assists in the four games.
Grayson Allen nailed 11 of 21 three point attempts against the Heat.
On the flip side, Strus shot 5 for 22 on threes against the Bucks and Tyler Herro 5 for 15.
The Heat did a decent job against Lopez, who averaged 11.3 points and 5.0 rebounds and shot 40 percent in the four games against Miami. Lopez is a finalist for NBA Defensive Player of the Year.
Adebayo played well against the Bucks, averaging 19.5 points and 10.8 rebounds and shooting 50 percent from the field. In four games against Milwaukee, Adebayo took more shots than Butler (70 to 58) and made more (35 to 31).
The Heat enter the series with one injury concern: Kyle Lowry, who left Friday’s game with 9:51 left in the fourth quarter after re-aggravating a left knee injury. He said he will play Sunday.
Here’s one positive: Butler is 7-7 in all-time playoff appearances against Antetokounmpo.
“I think we can win,” Butler said. “We’ve got to play right. We’ve got to play good basketball and do all the little things correct and compete. That’s what we do a good job of.”
Strus said entering the postseason as an underdog - compared with being the top seed last season - “doesn’t matter. I’m happy we’re in the playoffs and we have an opportunity. We just have to take advantage. You have to go through everybody to get where you want to go. You might as well start with the one seed.”
This is the fourth time that the Heat and Bucks have met in the playoffs. One of the teams advanced to the NBA Finals after the three previous meetings.
“We have great respect for them,” Erik Spoelstra said. “But we feel like we’re Navy Seals. Just drop us off in parachutes and let’s go compete.”
This story was originally published April 15, 2023 at 10:24 AM.
