Some advice to the Miami Dolphins about what not do in this month’s draft and why
If the Dolphins are tempted to take an offensive tackle at pick 51 when they’re on the clock on the second night of this month’s NFL draft, here’s some advice:
Please don’t.
And I’m not sure that taking an offensive lineman is a good idea at 84, either.
Yes, the Dolphins need a right tackle to seriously challenge, or beat out, Austin Jackson.
But the history - overall, and particularly in this organization - is simply too much to ignore:
Drafting a guard or tackle in the second, third or fourth rounds rarely ever works out for the Dolphins.
Since Don Shula wisely picked future three-time Pro Bowl guard Keith Sims with the 39th overall pick in the 1990 draft, the Dolphins have selected 17 guards or tackles in the second, third or fourth rounds.
Do you know how many of those 17 turned out to be very good players?
One: Current Dolphins right guard Robert Hunt, a second-round pick in 2020, and the book on his career is far from complete. And even in his case, Hunt has done his best work at guard and didn’t become the solution at tackle that some envisioned (for reasons for which he shouldn’t be blamed).
Three others, among the 17, turned out to be serviceable NFL starters: Todd Wade (started four years here), John Jerry and Billy Turner.
A few others either failed to come close to reaching expectations (Dallas Thomas, Michael Dieter) or have yet to do so (Liam Eichenberg).
The rest of the list is filled with busts – Eddie Blake, Andrew Greene and Brent Smith in the 1990s; Wade Smith, Taylor Whitley, Joe Toledo and Shawn Murphy in the first decade of this century; and Jonathan Martin, Jamil Douglas, Solomon Kindley this past decade.
For three decades, the Dolphins have had less success drafting offensive linemen, after the first round, than any other position except quarterback.
So with the Dolphins not ready to give up on the idea of Jackson as a starter, why take a chance at 51 on a position where the Dolphins have such a poor record of draft success?
Why not instead sign a veteran or two to compete with Jackson – either by waiting to see who’s released in the months ahead (perhaps Cincinnati’s La’El Collins) or signing an available free agent (Brandon Shell, Cam Fleming, George Fant) or doing both?
Shell remains unsigned after allowing just two sacks in 11 starts for the Dolphins last season.
And keep in mind that all the offensive linemen projected for the range of 45 to 60 have questions.
Ohio State right tackle Dawand Jones - linked to Miami at 51 - has “athletic deficiencies [and is…] unable to find his feet when attempting to match inside counters or stall out gaming fronts,” according to NFL.com Lance Zierlein.
Oklahoma offensive tackle Anton Harrison - mocked by McShay to Tampa Bay at 50 - “lacks the pop and drive of a plus run blocker and is better at neutralizing opponents with proper positioning,” Zierlein said. “There are some limitations athletically. NFL speed could have him scrambling without help.”
TCU guard/center/right tackle Steve Avila, going 52nd in McShay’s latest mock, is best suited for guard or center, according to Zierlein. So expecting him to become a good starter at right tackle might be wishful thinking.
Syracuse tackle Matthew Bergeron, mocked 60th by McShay, is better suited to guard, Zierlien said, adding that he’s “athletic enough to play tackle, but inconsistent anchor and hand placement could cause concern for evaluators.”
Bottom line: When you have such little draft capital, why risk using your best capital on a position where the organization’s success rate has been 1 or 17 (in the second, third and fourth rounds) over more than three decades?
Why keep doing something that historical data suggests doesn’t work for this franchise?
At least with a veteran right tackle, for all of his blemishes, you generally know what you’re getting.
THIS AND THAT
Agent Drew Rosenhaus, in his weekly WSVN-Fox 7 segment on Sunday, suggested the Dolphins are more likely to trade to acquire more picks than to move up in the draft. He said the Dolphins would like to acquire more picks beyond what they have (a second-rounder, a third-rounder, a sixth and a seventh).
Besides offensive line and tight end, Rosenhaus identified cornerback as another area the Dolphins would like to address in the draft.
▪ New Dolphins edge player Malik Reed hopes reuniting with Bradley Chubb could provide a boost; they played well together in Denver.
“It’s amazing,” Reed said. “My time with Chubb on the field, off the field, something just always clicked and it felt so natural. It’s a testament to the type of guy Chubb is and I feel like we’re similar in how we think sometimes. I feel like that flowed into us as teammates to where we could have a lot of success with each other.
“I called him once it was in the workings of me coming there. He called me back once he heard the news. ‘I didn’t know. I had to call you back, congratulations.’ He was so excited and I was excited too. I’m definitely excited to be back playing together again.”
This story was originally published April 10, 2023 at 2:56 PM.
