Insight on the issue that’s hurting Heat and Marlins and what can be done about it
Let’s first get the obvious out of the way: The Heat and Marlins have little in common during this century. The Heat, generally, has set a standard of excellence, winning three championships and making six NBA Finals appearances during that time.
The Marlins — who won the 1997 World Series — this century won another World Series (in 2003) but have finished with a losing record in 17 of the other 22 seasons this century, losing at least 90 games nine times during that period.
But there’s one similarity between the Heat’s struggles this season and the Marlins’ dreadful play during the past 13 months:
Too much of their payroll is being allocated to players who are performing well below expectations or not playing much at all.
With the Heat, 35.6 percent of the payroll this season is going to two players who are out of the rotation (Duncan Robinson at $16.9 million, Victor Oladipo at $8.7 million), and another who has gone from a component of what coach Erik Spoelstra called a “Big 4” to a serviceable-but-diminished backup (Kyle Lowry, at $28.3 million).
With the Marlins, 35 percent of their payroll is being allocated to outfielders who have disappointed since their signings (Jorge Soler at $15 million, Avisail Garcia at $12 million) and a pitcher who was dismal the past month and is now out with a biceps injury (Johnny Cueto, at $6 million).
It’s too soon to know if third baseman Jean Segura (off to a 1 for 15 start) or shortstop Joey Wendle (0 for 8 start after a poor spring) will end up being productive starters this season as they adjust to positions they haven’t played a ton. Wendle is now out indefinitely with oblique soreness. If both have bad seasons, then you’re talking about 48 percent of your payroll not delivering what’s expected.
Some insight on the situations with both teams:
▪ The Heat did not want to attach a first-round pick as a carrot to move Lowry or Robinson at the trade deadline — an understandable position — and Lowry has been more efficient since returning from his knee injury, shooting 43.5 overall and 40 percent on threes in eight games compared to 39.6 and 33.3 in 44 games before.
But the overall production (11.4 points, 5.1 assists, 1.9 turnovers, 40 percent from field) isn’t commensurate with the salary ($28.3 million this season, $29.7 million next).
“On the open market, maybe he would get $5 million to $8 million,” a veteran NBA scout said this week. “As a backup guy, he’s fine. He can settle people down, get you into offense. Whatever athleticism he had is fading. He played better recently, but he can’t beat guys off the dribble.”
Spoelstra’s decision to remove Robinson from the rotation for much of the season triggered a rant from ESPN’s Tim Legler.
“It’s mind-boggling to me, this entire time, for the last couple of years here: What in the world happened to Duncan Robinson, in terms of the way they view him?” Legler said on JJ Redick’s podcast. “Because the guy was record-setting for the franchise, with his three-point shooting, prolific. Had big moments in the postseason.
“And they gave him $18 million a year, as like what? As like an appreciation for what you’ve done for us? And now you don’t have a seat?... And I’m going, ‘This is one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the league. You’ve got Duncan Robinson over there. You paid him all that money.’ But they have like no faith in him. And now he has no rhythm. So when he does play, it’s not happening for him…
“Ever since you paid him, you don’t have a use for him anymore. It has been very much a head-scratcher.”
Though Robinson is shooting just 33.5 percent in 39 games this season, he’s shooting 37 percent in just 99 minutes since the All-Star break.
He could be used as salary ballast in a larger trade this summer; during the next three seasons, he’s owed $18.1 million, $19.4 million and $19.9 million (about half of that final year is guaranteed).
“If you can’t move him, you have to play him next year, even more so if [Max] Strus leaves,” the scout said. “You need to try to salvage that.”
Oladipo — who’s shooting 38.7 percent from the field and 30.9 on three-pointers — had been a healthy scratch in five of the Heat’s past eight games.
If he doesn’t get back in the rotation, would that make him more motivated to opt out of $9.5 million next season?
“We’ll see when the year ends,” Oladipo said Monday. “I can’t see into the future.”
Will the decision require a lot of thought? “Yeah, I guess so. That’s the point of it. When the time comes, I’ll do my due diligence.”
The scout said: “He would be crazy to opt out. At best, maybe he would get half a midlevel [$5.6 million] on the open market.”
▪ As for the Marlins, the decision to sign Cueto, 37, seems regrettable; he allowed 11 runs and 11 hits in 3 ⅔ innings this spring, struggled in the WBC and yielded four runs in one-plus innings of his Marlins debut on Monday before leaving with right biceps tightness, an injury that appears likely to land him on the injured list.
He came back from the WBC complaining about the injury but then decided to pitch through it. He said Monday night that he had the injury all spring. According a source, insurance would cover the time he is sidelined if the Marlins can prove he sustained the injury during the WBC. But that will be difficult to prove.
He’s earning $6 million this season, and the Marlins must pay him $2.5 million this winter to buy him out; otherwise, he would make $10.5 million next season.
Former CEO Derek Jeter was responsible for the signing of Garcia, who is making $12 million each year from 2022 through 2025. The Marlins then must pay him a $5 million buyout if they don’t want to pay him $12 million in 2026. The Marlins gave him that contract even though he didn’t have another four-year offer on the table, according to a source.
That was an obvious mistake; he has gone from an above-average run-producing outfielder in Milwaukee to one of the league’s least productive starting outfielders. He’s 2 for 13 this season after hitting .224, eight homers, 35 RBI in 98 games last season.
The Marlins hope they can salvage something from Soler, who’s off to a 5 for 20 start (with three doubles and a homer) after hitting just .207, with 13 homers and 34 RBI in 72 games last season. He missed the final two months of last season with back spasms.
General manager Kim Ng pursued Soler; he had comparable offers but picked Miami partly due to the player opt-out clause in the contract. After making $12 million last season, he’s collecting $15 million this season (after bypassing his player option last winter). He’s due $9 million next season and could be dangled before the trade deadline.
At least the Red Sox are paying $5.6 million of the $10.2 million due Matt Barnes, who has gone from closer in Boston to a lower-leverage role here.
The Marlins can only hope to have the success the Heat has had. But both teams are being handicapped by paying more than 30 percent of their payroll to players who have disappointed or aren’t playing.
This story was originally published April 4, 2023 at 2:09 PM.
