What to know about the Dolphins’ defensive line entering free agency and what’s ahead
Thoughts, metrics, financial details and the outlook for every Miami Dolphins defensive lineman as we head into free agency and the NFL Draft:
CHRISTIAN WILKINS
▪ The contract: At the moment, he is set to play next year on his a fifth-year option that will pay him $10.8 million. He then would be eligible for free agency in March 2024.
But the Dolphins are expected to explore striking a long-term deal with him this offseason, one that could lower his 2023 cap hit. The Dolphins want to keep him around for a long time.
▪ The metrics: His 98 tackles were the most by an NFL defensive lineman since 1994, but the impact went beyond that.
He logged an inordinate amount of snaps for a defensive lineman — 955, or 84 percent of Miami’s defensive snaps, up from 637 and 734 the previous two seasons. He and the Raiders’ Maxx Crosby led defensive linemen in snaps.
Pro Football Focus rated him ninth among 125 interior defenders, including third against the run.
PFF has a category called “run stops.” A stop constitutes a “win” for the defense or conversely a “loss” for the offense. PFF describes a “stop” further as an offensive gain on first down that is kept to less than 40 percent of the line to gain, less than 50 percent of the line to gain on second down and any third- or fourth-down play kept without a first down or touchdown.
Wilkins had 46 of them — easily the highest in the league; Dolphins teammate Zach Sieler was second with 36.
As a pass rusher, Wilkins had 3.5 sacks (down from 4.5 in 2021) and produced 33 pressures on 633 pass rushing snaps, and PFF rated him 33rd among interior defenders as a pass rusher.
He also had a career high 16 tackles for loss. Those 16 tackles for loss were just one fewer than his combined total for his first three NFL seasons.
▪ The future: The Dolphins and Wilkins will work on a long-term contract, but determining a guaranteed dollar figure could take time as part of the normal negotiating process. The sense is that something will get done at some point this year.
After Aaron Donald (who’s on a tier all his own) and his $46 million guaranteed, the NFL defensive tackles with the five next-highest full guarantees, per spotrac.com, are the Colts’ DeForest Buckner ($39.4 million), the Chiefs’ Chris Jones ($37.6 million), Washington’s Jonathan Allen ($31 million) and Tampa Bay’s Vita Vea ($14.7 million).
ZACH SIELER
▪ The contract: Signed through 2023, and a bargain next season at $2.5 million.
▪ The metrics: Like Wilkins, Sieler was durable and productive.
He ranked fourth among snaps by defensive linemen, behind Crosby, Wilkins and Aidan Hutchinson, according to Pro Football Focus.
PFF rated him 22nd among 125 interior defenders, including eighth against the run.
Per Profootball Reference, he played 77 percent of the Dolphins’ defensive snaps, up from 52 and 46 the previous two seasons.
He set a career high with 70 tackles (including seven for loss) and tied a career high with 3.5 sacks.
Sieler had 36 pressures (in 575 pass rushing snaps), which ranks 23rd among all interior defensive linemen.
Neither Wilkins nor Sieler will put up huge sack numbers, but that’s not expected of them in a defense where pressure primarily will come from the edge rushers and blitzers.
▪ The future: The Dolphins could try to sign him to an extension in the next 10 months or wait until he becomes a free agent in March 2024. Agent Drew Rosenhaus and the Dolphins are expected to have more discussions on a potential extension.
Expect extension talks in the months ahead. He’s a key part of a run defense that tied for sixth best in average yards per carry against (4.2).
RAEKWON DAVIS
▪ The contract: Signed through 2023. Will earn $1.4 million next season.
▪ The metrics: Pro Football Focus rates him 112th of 125 defensive tackles. The Dolphins don’t believe that does him justice; defensive line coach Austin Clark has explained that the fact he takes on a lot of double-teams must be taken into account.
“I think his footwork, his hand placement” have improved, Clark said in late December. “He was a little dinged up early on in the year.”
Davis had 12 of PFF’s aforementioned run stops, which tied for 76th among interior defenders. He played 268 snaps against the run, compared with 381 and 359 for Wilkins and Sieler.
He had 33 tackles but only one for loss, which is disappointing.
▪ The future: At the very least, he’s solid, good enough to be part of a productive run defense. It’s unfortunate that he has never been able to sustain the pass rush promise that he showed in his second year at Alabama, when he had 8.5 sacks.
He had 1.5 and 0.5 sacks in his final two years of college and has just 1.5 sacks in 46 games as a pro.
Last season, he had 14 pressures and one sack in 343 pass rushing snaps.
But he will need another productive season to warrant significant money in free agency in a year and to eliminate any discussion of the Dolphins needing a better option.
EMMANUEL OGBAH
▪ The contract: Signed through 2025. Will earn $15 million next season (all guaranteed). None of the money after that is guaranteed: $14.9 million in 2024 and $15 million in 2025.
▪ The metrics: The drop in production from 2020 and 2021 when he had 18 sacks and 119 combined pressures (sixth most in the NFL) — to one sack and 15 pressures in nine games (and 224 pass rush snaps) in 2022 — was mystifying.
Then he sustained the season-ending triceps injury Nov. 13 against Cleveland.
Pro Football Focus rated him 108th of 120 defensive linemen.
Notably, he started only three of nine games last season and he had been playing less than in 2021 — 36 defensive snaps per game last season compared with 44 in 2021.
▪ The future: With Sieler’s development into a starter and the acquisition of Bradley Chubb, Ogbah might play about half the snaps or a bit less — perhaps 25 to 35 snaps a game. But he will have every chance to play more if he can return to his form of 2020 (when he played 77 percent of Miami’s defensive snaps) and 2021 (when he played 67 percent).
JOHN JENKINS
▪ The contract: Will be an unrestricted free agent.
▪ The metrics: Pro Football Focus rated him 71st of 125 interior defenders, including 81st as a run defender.
He played between 10 and 23 snaps — either on goal line or in relief of Raekwon Davis — in Miami’s last 10 games, including 12 in the Bills playoff game.
Overall, he played 24 percent of the Dolphins’ defensive snaps, down from 36 percent the previous season.
He had 10 pressures and no sacks in 143 pass rushing chances.
▪ The future: Jenkins — reliable and trusted by coaches — always remains an option to return at the league minimum. He has nine lives as a veteran defensive tackle, and he has earned all of them.
WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE
Very little, beyond striking long-term deals with Wilkins and Sieler, and determining whether to bring back Jenkins or sign a different backup nose tackle on a low-money deal.
