Heat has power forward trade options: What makes sense and the compensation conundrum
With the Heat playing a lot better — 13 wins in its past 19 games — any thought of Miami “breaking up its roster” has gone from not totally inconceivable to unlikely.
It also lessens the chance of the Heat moving Kyle Lowry, something that would be difficult to achieve anyway because of his age (36) and contract ($28.3 million this season, $29.7 million next season). While a Lowry deal cannot be ruled out, one league source said Miami is not trying to deal him.
So essentially, the Heat has two players that it likely would not hesitate to trade — Duncan Robinson (because of his contract) and Dewayne Dedmon — and at least two others who could be offered in the right trade, Caleb Martin and Nikola Jovic. Miami also could offer one or two protected first-round picks.
With Max Strus playing better recently, that could incline the Heat to keep him and sign him this summer, though Strus could be put in play for a high-quality starter. Impending free agent Omer Yurtseven could be a chip, but he’s still weeks from returning from ankle surgery.
So what power rotation player could be attainable for Robinson, Dedmon and perhaps an asset or two among Martin, Jovic and a first-rounder?
Among the options as the Feb. 9 trade deadline approaches:
▪ Atlanta’s John Collins. Heavy.com’s Sean Devaney, a longtime NBA writer, reported this week that the Heat would be receptive to dealing Robinson (who has 3 ½ years on his five-year, $90 million deal), Martin (in the first year of a three-year, $20.5 million deal) and a protected first for the Atlanta power forward.
But ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowksi said: “Starting next year, he’s still owed another $25 million a year, essentially $75 million over the next three years. I think that’s been a hindrance in the trade market. There are some teams, such as Utah, that would like a draft pick with Collins to offset that money. Landry Fields, the new general manager in Atlanta, he does not see John Collins as a money dump.”
Because Collins’ production hasn’t matched the contract, the question becomes whether Atlanta should include a carrot to deal him (which Fields seems opposed to doing) or whether the Hawks should ask for a draft carrot to trade him.
Here’s the big red flag with the 6-9 Collins, and why this might not be worth pursuing for Miami: The Heat likes playing a stretch four alongside Bam Adebayo, and Collins’ three-point shooting has badly regressed to 24.4 percent this season (29 for 199), down from 40.1, 39.9 and 36.4 the previous three seasons.
That’s a big reason his scoring average has dropped to 13.3 per game, from 16.2 last season. That would be a lot of money to take on with the hope that this season’s three-point shooting numbers are an anomaly.
▪ Indiana’s Myles Turner. The Pacers and Turner opened contract extension talks last month, and there’s no indication Indiana will try to deal him.
Always a shot blocker and deterrent at the rim, Turner has become a more appealing potential target, theoretically for Miami, because he’s shooting a career high 39.4 percent on threes, up from his 35.5 career average.
He’s averaging a career high 17.1 points and 7.8 rebounds.
The issue is whether Miami has enough appealing assets for Indiana and whether it would have interest in giving him a big contract, exceeding the $18 million that he’s making this season.
Robinson likely would be of little appeal to the Pacers; any deal would need to be sweetened with Martin and a first-rounder and perhaps Yurtseven, at the very least.
▪ Washington’s Kyle Kuzma, earning $13 million last season and likely to decline his $13 million player option next year, is a logical and appealing target, but the Wizards are instead looking to move Rui Hachimura with an eye toward keeping Kuzma, according to The Athletic.
From a Heat standpoint, Hachimura — an impending restricted free agent — would be far less appealing. He has been a poor three-point shooter in three of his four seasons, including 32.1 percent this year.
▪ Minnesota’s Taurean Prince and Kyle Anderson, who could be put in play if the underachieving Wolves decide to make changes. Both have affordable contracts, can shoot threes and would be helpful rotation additions. In the final year of their contracts next season, Prince is owed $7.6 million, Anderson $9.3 million.
Whether the Heat would consider pairing Jovic with Dedmon — or whether Minnesota would consider that — is questionable.
▪ San Antonio’s Doug McDermott and Zach Collins, two skilled three-point shooters. McDermott is owed $13.7 million next season in the final year of his deal; Collins has a $7.7 million team option.
Among others, the Heat remains interested in Phoenix’s Jae Crowder (but it’s unlikely they would give up Martin or a first-rounder in a deal); Chicago has given no indication it’s looking to move the expiring contract of sweet-shooting center Nic Vucevic (though it cannot be ruled out); and the Heat hasn’t been among the teams linked nationally to Detroit’s Bojan Bogdanovic.
Orlando’s Mo Bamba (7.4 points, 4.8 rebounds, 37.6 percent on threes) has been floated in league circles but is due $10.3 million next season. Utah could be receptive on Kelly Olynyk; he’s due $12.8 million this year and $12.2 million next season, and the Heat has embraced second tours of players before.
Charlotte reportedly is considering options on small forward Jalen McDaniels, who’s on a cheap expiring contract ($1.9 million), can shoot threes and has the size (6-9) to play power forward.
So there are options for Miami to add another power forward. But the notion of getting anything good for the Dedmon and Robinson contracts seems inconceivable, unless there’s a sweetener or two (Martin, a first-rounder, Yurtseven or perhaps Jovic).
Here’s an important rule to keep in mind: A team that would be above the luxury tax threshold after completing a trade (and Miami is barely under) can take back only 125 percent of salary sent out, plus $100,000. For teams not over the tax or close to the line, the outgoing salary plus $5 million is acceptable for players earning between $6.5 million and $19.6 million.
This story was originally published January 19, 2023 at 5:03 PM.
