One area where Heat is a lot better. The Robinson/Dedmon decision and personnel notes
A six-pack of Miami Heat notes on a Wednesday, after the Heat moved two games above .500 for the first time this season with Monday’s win at the Clippers:
▪ The Heat has declined offensively from last season in several key areas, dropping from first to 24th in three-point shooting and 12th to 23rd in offensive rating (points per 100 possessions).
But here’s one area where the Heat has been much better offensively than recent years:
Shooting late in close games. That has been an issue that has dogged Miami for several seasons, but not this one.
After ranking 29th in clutch shooting in 2020-21 (37.5 percent from the field) and 23rd last season (40.6), the Heat stands 10th in clutch shooting at 43.9 percent this season. That’s one reason Miami has outscored teams by 33 points (third best in the league), in moments defined by the NBA as clutch (a margin of five points or fewer in the final five minutes of games).
Jimmy Butler’s 55.3 percent shooting in the clutch (21 for 38) this season is second best in the NBA (minimum 35 shots), behind only Sacramento’s De’Aaron Fox. And Butler, of course, has shown a knack in his career to draw fouls on drives to the basket; he has made 13 of 17 clutch free throws.
Bam Adebayo is shooting 52.2 percent (12 for 23) in the clutch.
Tyler Herro’s clutch shooting numbers (by the NBA’s definition) don’t fully do justice to a player who has won three games with late shots.
He’s shooting 42.9 percent (18 of 42) in the clutch, and 10 for 27 on clutch threes. But he’s 12 for 12 on clutch free throws.
And consider this: In the final two minutes of the fourth quarter or OT, with the Heat down or up by three points or fewer or the game tied, Herro has four threes (in 10 attempts); only Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson and Killian Hayes have as many threes in that situation.
And Butler is 5 for 7 from the field in that precise two-minute situation.
So the Heat now has two clearly above-average clutch shooting options (with Butler and Herro), and another, Adebayo, who shouldn’t be underestimated in that role.
▪ The impression that two-way center Orlando Robinson has outplayed Dewayne Dedmon, while totally reasonable, appears mostly the byproduct not only of Robinson exceeding all expectations as an undrafted rookie but also the fact that the Heat has played much better with Robinson on the floor than Dedmon.
The Heat has outscored teams by two points in Robinson’s 168 minutes over 11 games. Conversely, Miami has been outscored by 78 points in Dedmon’s 316 minutes in 26 games.
But if you compare them purely on numbers per 36 minutes, Dedmon holds the edge in points (18.8 to 13.5), rebounds (11.1 to 9.6) and blocks (1.4 to 1.1). Robinson has the edge in assists (2.6 to 1.7), turnovers (1.3 to 1.9), steals (1.3 to 0.7) and most glaringly, offensive rebounds (4.1 per 36 minutes, compared to Dedmon’s 3.0).
Dedmon remains out with plantar fasciitis.
Robinson, under NBA two-way contract rules, is eligible to play 23 more games for the Heat unless his deal is converted to a standard contract. The Heat, which has an open roster spot, can convert Robinson to a standard deal at any time, but Miami has been disinclined to do that with anyone because it would put them in luxury tax territory unless the player is signed with 10 days remaining in the season.
Miami has five games during the final 10 days. So Miami could stay under the tax and have Robinson available for 28 of Miami’s final 44 games.
Omer Yurtseven also is expected back from ankle surgery at some point.
▪ Not only is Victor Oladipo coming off two best offensive games of the season (23 and 15 points on 13-of-26 shooting), but to appreciate everything he’s doing defensively, consider this:
During his past four games, the player defended by Oladipo is shooting just 30.2 percent (13 for 43), compared to the 48.5 percent those players shoot overall.
He has 20 steals in his past eight games, and if he had enough minutes to qualify, his 1.8 steals per game would be third in the league behind OG Anunoby and De’Anthony Melton.
“He just has electrifying quickness laterally,” Spoelstra said Monday night after the win at the Clippers. “And you can see, he’s getting his confidence and his health and his burst back.”
▪ Kyle Lowry continues to have more quiet nights than he did in his prime, but the Heat will ride through this because of his track record and the steadying effect the point guard has on the group.
Gabe Vincent has played better than Lowry in the past week, with Lowry scoring a combined 14 points on 5-of-17 (29.4 percent) and 4-of-14 on threes (28.6 percent) during the first three games of this Western swing. But he has 31 assists and six turnovers during his past six games.
To this point, Spoelstra hasn’t shown much inclination to play many lineups without Lowry or Vincent unless by necessity. He used a group without either for more than a minute in the fourth quarter on Monday.
A group of Butler, Adebayo, Herro, Max Strus and Oladipo has played just one minute together.
A lineup of Butler, Adebayo, Caleb Martin, Strus and Herro has played 20 minutes together and is a plus-five.
▪ According to someone who has spoken to the Heat’s front office, the Heat remains interested in Jae Crowder, but only in a buyout situation, barring Phoenix shockingly taking a bad contract off Miami’s hands.
The Heat continues to monitor Martin’s quad injury, which has sidelined him two of the past three games and seemingly affected him in 14 minutes on Monday.
The urgency at power forward would be heightened if Martin’s injury doesn’t heal in the next couple of weeks. The NBA trade deadline is Feb 9.
▪ ABC lead analysts Jeff Van Gundy and Mark Jackson work both of ESPN’s Heat cablecasts this week — on Wednesday alongside Mike Breen at the Lakers and on Friday alongside Mark Jones at Phoenix. Bally Sports Sun also will air both.
TNT replaced Detroit-Philadelphia with Heat-Oklahoma City next Tuesday, a game exclusive to Turner. That Heat-OKC game — to be called by Brian Anderson, Stan Van Gundy and Grant Hill — will be Miami’s first game on TNT since Charles Barkley implored the Heat to make major roster changes.
“It might be time to break the team up and start over,” Barkley said Dec. 26, with the Heat standing at 11-14 at the time, after a home loss to Detroit. “They got some contracts that’s like . . . they’re no good. So, they need to start over. That’s my personal opinion.”
Miami (20-18) has won nine of 13 since to move two games above .500 for the first time this season.
This story was originally published January 4, 2023 at 9:17 AM.
