Dolphins fall to 7th seed. Here are their chances of making playoffs in various scenarios
The Dolphins fell a spot, from the sixth to the seventh and final AFC playoff seed, on Sunday night, after the Los Angeles Chargers beat the Tennessee Titans to move to the sixth seed.
The seventh seed would open the playoffs at the No. 2 seed (currently Kansas City).
The Chargers (8-6) and Dolphins (8-6) have the same record, but the Chargers moved to the sixth seed by virtue of their head to head win against the Dolphins.
The Jets and Patriots lost Sunday, leaving them at 7-7 and outside the top seven seeds, but just a game behind Miami and the Chargers.
And at least the Dolphins control their playoff destiny: Wins against the Patriots and Jets would clinch a playoff berth.
Per fivethirtyeight.com, the Dolphins have a 72 percent chance to make the playoffs. That would increase to 81 if the Dolphins win their next game at home against Green Bay on Christmas (1 p.m., Fox) and fall to 56 percent if they lose that game.
As for Miami’s playoff chances, here are the scenarios:
▪ If the Dolphins win all three remaining games - home against the Packers, at the Patriots and home against the Jets - they will definitely be in the playoffs.
▪ If the Dolphins lose against the Packers but beat New England and the Jets, they will definitely be in the playoffs.
▪ If the Dolphins beat the Packers but then lose to the Patriots and Jets: The Dolphins have just an 18 percent chance to make the playoffs, per fivethirtyeight.com.
▪ If the Dolphins lose their final three games, they definitely will not make the playoffs.
▪ If the Dolphins beat the Packers and Jets but lose to the Patriots: The Dolphins have a 95 percent chance to make the playoffs. Miami would win a two-team tie with the Jets.
▪ If the Dolphins beat the Packers and Patriots but lose to the Jets: The Dolphins have an 88 percent chance to make the playoffs.
▪ If the Dolphins lose to the Packers, beat the Patriots but lose to the Jets: The Dolphins would have a 38 percent chance to make the playoffs.
▪ If the Dolphins lose to the Packers and Patriots but beat the Jets: The Dolphins would have a 69 percent chance to make the playoffs.
The Jets close with home games against Jacksonville, a road game at Seattle and then a game at Miami.
The Patriots play at home against Cincinnati and Miami and then finish at Buffalo.
The Chargers close with games at Indianapolis, home against the Rams and at Denver.
