How the Dolphins can still make the playoffs: All the scenarios and seeding possibilities
It’s highly unusual for a team to lose every game in December — and experience separate three-game and four-game losing streaks — and still control its playoff destiny.
But the Dolphins (8-7) find themselves in that predicament, able to clinch a playoff berth with wins Sunday at New England and Jan. 8 at home against the Jets. Conversely, if the Dolphins lose both games, they will definitely miss the playoffs.
Examining the other potential scenarios, with Miami currently holding the seventh and final playoff seed, one game ahead of the Patriots (7-8), Jets (7-8) and Steelers (7-8):
▪ If the Dolphins win at New England and the Jets lose at Seattle: Miami would clinch a playoff berth in that scenario.
That could happen at around 7 p.m. on Sunday, with the Dolphins playing at 1 p.m. Eastern on CBS and the Jets playing at 4 p.m. on Fox. Both games are regional telecasts.
▪ If the Dolphins win at New England, but lose to the Jets, and the Jets beat Seattle:
Miami is in serious trouble. In that scenario, the Jets would clinch a playoff berth and the Dolphins would need to overtake the Chargers, who could make that an impossibility for the Dolphins in this one-loss Miami scenario if the Chargers win at Indianapolis on Monday night.
The Chargers would clinch a playoff berth by beating the Colts in Monday’s late game.
▪ If the Dolphins lose at New England but beat the Jets, and New England loses at Buffalo on the final day of the season:
The Dolphins will clinch a playoff spot. That’s regardless of whether the Jets lose at Seattle next Sunday.
The Patriots will be clear underdogs at Buffalo, so Miami would have a decent chance to reach postseason if they enter Week 17 needing a win plus a Patriots loss.
▪ If the Dolphins lose at New England but beat the Jets, and the Patriots win at Buffalo:
The Dolphins are in serious trouble.
In that scenario, New England would clinch a playoff berth and the Dolphins would need to somehow overtake the Chargers, which wouldn’t be possible for Miami in this one-loss Dolphins scenario if Los Angeles wins at Indianapolis on Monday night.
While the Dolphins can clinch a playoff spot next Sunday (with a win and Jets loss in Seattle), Miami cannot be eliminated from playoff contention Sunday.
“I feel like we all know we’re a better team than what we’ve been showing,” receiver Jaylen Waddle said.
So it’s basically three flawed AFC East teams — and the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-8) -- competing for a final playoff berth barring a Chargers collapse.
And the three AFC East teams can convince themselves they’re in pretty good position, even though they have lost a combined 10 in a row. (The Dolphins and Jets are riding four-game losing streaks, while the Patriots have dropped two in a row.)
After all, the Dolphins and Patriots control their destinies.
But the Jets can accurately say that all they need to do is win at a reeling 7-8 Seattle team, beat a Dolphins team they have already beaten once and hope the Patriots lose as underdogs at Buffalo.
Pittsburgh needs the most things to happen to claim the final playoff spot: winning at Baltimore and home against Cleveland; the Dolphins losing twice; the Jets losing at Seattle and New England losing at Buffalo.
If the Dolphins make the playoffs, they’re likely going to be the No. 7 seed and face a first-round playoff game on the road against the No. 2 seed, likely Buffalo or Kansas City.
The Bills and Chiefs are 12-3, but Buffalo owns the tiebreaker. But the Bills have a difficult game next Monday night at Cincinnati, followed by the home game against the Patriots.
The Chiefs close with Denver at home and then at the Raiders. There’s a slim possibility that Cincinnati (11-4) could jump them both for the top seed.
But moving up to the fifth or sixth seeds is at least possible for the Dolphins if they win out and get help.
The Dolphins could jump the Chargers for a playoff seed only if the Dolphins win out and the Chargers lose twice (among Colts, Rams, at Denver). Los Angeles owns the tiebreaker with Miami.
In order for the Dolphins to jump the fifth-seed Ravens (10-5) and be the sixth seed, Miami would need to win out and Baltimore would need to lose its two final games: home to Pittsburgh and at the Bengals. The Dolphins own the tiebreaker with Baltimore.
Because division winners are assured the top four seeds, the three wild card teams in the AFC are slotted fifth through seventh and begin the playoffs on the road.
So what explains the streaky nature of this Dolphins season - with a three-game winning streak, a three-game losing streak, a five-game winning streak and now a four-game losing streak?
“I can’t put my finger on it,” linebacker Jerome Baker said. “If I did, I would have figured it out and stopped it.”
Scheduling has a lot to do with it. The Dolphins feasted on losing teams in that winning streak (Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland, Houston) and have lost to formidable teams in an 0-4 December (San Francisco, Chargers, Buffalo, Green Bay).
Per Fox, no team that lost every December game has made the playoffs. Miami is trying to become the first.
“What does dwelling on the last four [games] do for you moving forward?” left tackle Terron Armstead said. “Anything past doesn’t help your present or future. So learn from mistakes.”
Tagovailoa suggests there won’t be a hangover effect in New England after an 0-4 December.
“I would say it’s easy to keep the confidence up with this group,” he said. “I think we all believe in each other.”
This story was originally published December 26, 2022 at 9:35 AM.
