Exploring 10 reasons why Dolphins’ defense has badly regressed. Some surprising numbers
So how does a Dolphins defense that returned most everybody - and added a Pro Bowl pass rusher at midseason - regress from pretty good (and very good for most of the second half of last season) to one of the league’s bottom-fifth units in many key statistical categories?
The Dolphins have gone from sixth in average points permitted per game in 2020 (21.1) to 15th last season (21.9) to 27th this season at 24.6. Among AFC teams, only the Houston Texans relinquish as many points per game as the Dolphins (24.6). The Dolphins are are slightly better, 23rd, in yards allowed per game (357.6).
The Dolphins retained most of this defense based on the assumption that their strong work over the final nine games last season (during which they permitted a league-best 15.5 points per game) was a reflection of how good they were, not the mediocrity of seven of the nine quarterbacks they faced during those games (Tyrod Taylor, Joe Flacco, Cam Newton, Mike Glennon, Zach Wilson, Ian Book and Mac Jones).
But injuries and other factors have led to a significant regression, despite strong play from several, including Christian Wilkins, Jaelan Phillips, Zach Sieler and undrafted rookie Kader Kohou.
Exploring 10 reasons for the defensive unraveling:
▪ They’re the league’s worst defense on the road.
Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer has been unable to explain this when asked, but the road numbers are grotesque: The Dolphins are permitting 31.5 points per game on the road; Seattle is next worst at 28.4.
As perspective, the AFC East rivals Bills and Jets yield 18 points per game on the road, New England 21.1.
On the road, the Dolphins are permitting a stunning 109.9 passer rating (better than any individual quarterback in the league and far higher than the 84.6 they allow at home), 6.0 yards per play (compared to 4.8 at home) and 16 touchdown passes and one interception on the road (compared with 8 and 6 at home).
And here’s one more tidbit: On the road, the Dolphins sack the quarterback only 5.4 percent of his drop backs, compared with 7.3 percent at home.
The Dolphins have played more top quarterbacks on the road (Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen) than they have at home (only Allen and to a lesser extent, Kirk Cousins). But there’s more to it than that.
▪ Losing four key players to injuries: Byron Jones, Brandon Jones, Emmanuel Ogbah and Nik Needham.
Though undrafted rookie starting cornerback Kohou has exceeded anybody’s reasonable expectations, don’t underestimate the loss of Byron Jones after March surgery and a subsequent setback that has sidelined him all season. Mike McDaniel said he’s not counting on a return this season.
The defensive philosophy was built around the notion of having two shut-down corners: Jones and Xavien Howard.
And even though Ogbah was having a quiet year (one sack), he led the league in passes batted down the past two years, to go along with 18 sacks.
Needham’s injury has left the Dolphins scrambling to find a third corner.
And Dolphins’ blitzes have been less effective since losing Brandon Jones, whose seven sacks led all NFL safety from the start of 2021 through mid October 2022.
▪ They can’t “get off the field” on third downs.
The Dolphins are allowing opponents to convert 43.7 percent of their third downs into first downs, which is sixth worst in the league. That’s up from 41.1 last year.
The Chargers were 9 for 18 against the Dolphins on third down, and the Bills converted 8 of 14 this past weekend.
▪ The pass defense has unraveled.
Part of that is the byproduct of the loss of two defensive starters (Byron Jones and Brandon Jones, who had been much-improved in coverage, improving his passer rating against by 28 points this year). Also hurtful was the October loss of Needham, who played more than 50 percent of the snaps even when Byron Jones and Xavien Howard were healthy last year.
And Howard’s difficult season - partly a result of groin injuries - cannot be glossed over. Last season, Howard permitted an 88.2 passer rating against him with five interceptions.
This season, it’s 125.5 and one interception. That passer rating is fourth highest in the league against cornerbacks targeted at least 40 times. He’s also allowed 15.8 yards per reception, second highest among corners who have permitted at least 30 receptions.
And though Kohou has been very solid (87.8 passer rating against), here’s the corrosive effect of losing Byron Jones and Needham:
Keion Crossen, who played just two percent of the Giants’ defensive snaps last season, has had to play 32 percent this season as Miami’s No. 3 corner (that 32 percent is the highest of his five-year career) and he’s allowing a 133.6 passer rating against him and 15.4 yards per reception on 16 catches.
Overall, Miami’s pass defense is permitting a 98.2 passer rating, compared with 85.4 last season. Only Arizona, Kansas City and Las Vegas have yielded a higher rating this season.
The linebackers, except for Duke Riley, also have poor passer ratings in coverage, including 107.6 against Jerome Baker and 117.5 against Elandon Roberts. The linebackers continue to struggle to defend tight ends and running backs.
▪ Lack of takeaways.
Only the Saints, Raiders and Giants have fewer interceptions than the Dolphins’ seven. Only 8.5 percent of Dolphins’ opponent drives end in a turnover, seventh worst in the league. Their 0.9 takeaways per game are third-fewest in the league.
▪ The pass rush isn’t as good as it was expected to be.
Though the Dolphins are slightly above average in sacks (tied for 13th with 35), their 20.2 pressure rate is 21st and they’re 18th in quarterback knockdowns per pass attempt.
Bradley Chubb, who had 26 sacks in 49 games for Denver, has 2.5 in six games in Miami and comes off a quiet two-tackle, no sack game in Buffalo.
Every defensive lineman on the Dolphins has combined for just seven sacks, two fewer than defensive end Ogbah had on his own last season.
The Dolphins don’t get to the quarterback nearly enough with four-man rushes, and their blitzes this year (particularly without Brandon Jones) are less effective than a year ago.
▪ The red zone defense isn’t good enough.
Of the 50 times that teams have penetrated Miami’s 20-yard line, they’ve scored touchdowns on 31 of them.
That 62 percent is seventh-worst in the league. Last year, the Dolphins permitted TDs on only 52 percent of opponents’ forays into the red zone.
▪ They allow far too many yards after the catch - 1,695.
Only Arizona, Minnesota and Seattle have permitted more. Part of that is the byproduct of missed tackles; Miami has 61 of those, 15th in the league.
Conversely, the Dolphins are 13th best in the league in air yards yielded at 1,665.
▪ Lack of dominant play at linebacker.
Jerome Baker hasn’t been bad; he’s 16th among 83 linebackers ranked by PFF and he’s 43rd in the NFL with 89 tackles. Elandon Roberts, rated 69th of 83 by PFF, has had several stops on short yardage situations.
But Miami could badly use a Pro Bowl-caliber linebacker who consistently impacts games. Finding help at the position must be an offseason priority; it’s unclear what the Dolphins have in third-round rookie Channing Tindall, who has played nine defensive snaps all season.
Consider this: The Dolphins’ inside linebackers don’t have a single takeaway this season.
Boyer has blitzed Baker far less than he did two years ago, and his sacks have dropped from seven to four.
With the Dolphins having limited cap space (less than $5 million) next offseason, the question is whether they try to clear out space to add a difference-making inside linebacker.
▪ Their best players need to play better, and too many coaching decisions haven’t worked out.
Every coach is accountable when his unit underperforms, and coordinator Josh Boyer is no exception.
But it would be presumptuous to say Brian Flores’ absence explains the defensive decline. The Dolphins and Boyer say Boyer called plays for every game last season, and he has again this season.
One difference, noted by a Dolphins player: Flores sometimes popped his head in defensive meetings with input/suggestions, while McDaniel doesn’t. Flores might change a call during a game; McDaniel gives Boyer total authority.
A few calls have been glaringly poor - including dropping several players into the end zone on a 3rd and goal from the 17 against the Chargers; Los Angeles gained 16 yards and scored on the ensuing play.
Too many blitzes haven’t yielded the desired results.
And the mediocre linebacker play and Boyer’s aggressive scheme -- with the edge players coming hard around the edges - often leaves them vulnerable in the middle of the field against mobile quarterbacks, as Josh Allen has repeatedly exposed.
“People have been more in-tuned to some of our blitzes,” Boyer said.
And Boyer probably should have played Andrew Van Ginkel more; his snaps have dropped significantly this season.
But the Dolphins’ Pro Bowl players also need to play better, starting with Howard and Chubb.
Second-year starter Jevon Holland, while still good, hasn’t yet become a Pro Bowl safety; PFF has dropped him from fourth last season to 36th this season among all safeties.
He’s allowing a 111.9 passer rating in his coverage area, with 18 completions for 23 for 231 yards and three touchdowns.
What’s clear is this: This defense simply must play better to close the season against teams that are in the bottom half of the league in scoring: Green Bay (22nd), New England (17th) and the Jets (23rd).
This story was originally published December 19, 2022 at 12:49 PM.
