Examining Miami Dolphins’ playoff and division title chances in various scenarios
The Dolphins can still win the AFC East under several scenarios, including winning in Buffalo on Saturday, then beating the Packers, Patriots and Jets, and hoping the Bills lose one game among the Bears, Bengals and Patriots.
But the more likely path to the playoffs is emerging with a wild card berth.
Five teams are essentially competing for three wild card spots and the fifth through seventh seeds – the 6th seeded Dolphins (8-5), 7th seeded Patriots (7-6 after winning in Arizona on Monday), the 8th seeded Chargers (7-6), the 9th seeded Jets (7-6), plus the team that loses the AFC North (either Baltimore or Cincinnati, who are both 9-4).
The Ravens currently hold the tiebreaker with the Bengals, and so Cincinnati would be the first wild card team (and fifth seed overall) if the playoffs began today. Seven AFC teams make the playoffs.
Per fivethirtyeight.com, here would be the Dolphins’ odds of making the playoffs in various scenarios that all involve the Dolphins losing at Buffalo, (and we’ll get to Dolphins winning at Buffalo scenarios in a minute):
▪ If the Dolphins lose to Buffalo and win at home against the Packers, win at the Patriots and win at home against the Jets: Dolphins clinch a playoff berth.
▪ If the Dolphins lose to Bills and lose against the Packers but beat New England and the Jets: Dolphins clinch a playoff berth.
▪ If the Dolphins lose to Bills and beat the Packers but then lose to the Patriots and Jets: The Dolphins have just a 10 percent chance to make the playoffs. In this scenario, they would need two among the Chargers, Patriots and Jets to be very bad down the stretch.
▪ If the Dolphins lose their final four games: They would definitely not make the playoffs.
▪ If the Dolphins lose their two road games (Bills and Patriots) and win their two home games (Packers and Jets): The Dolphins have a 92 percent chance to make the playoffs in this scenario. If the Dolphins beat the Jets in the finale, Miami would win a two-team tiebreaker with New York even if the Dolphins lose to the Bills and Patriots.
▪ If the Dolphins lose to the Bills, Packers and Patriots but beat the Jets: The Dolphins would have a 48 percent chance to make the playoffs.
▪ If the Dolphins lose to the Bills, Packers and Jets but beat the Patriots: Miami would have only a 34 percent chance to make the playoffs.
Keep in mind that if the Patriots beat the Dolphins on Jan. 1 to even their season series, the next tiebreaker would be division record and the next tiebreaker would be record against common opponents.
If the Dolphins lose at Buffalo and at New England but beat the Jets and if the Patriots lose at the Bills, Miami would win a two-team tiebreaker against New England by virtue of the third tiebreaker, a better record against common opponents.
Among common opponents, Miami is 6-3 and the Patriots are 5-5, with several common opponents remaining.
Among Dolphins’ playoff scenarios that would include beating the Bills:
The Dolphins have an 89 percent chance to make the playoffs if they win Saturday in Buffalo, but that drops to 69 percent if the Dolphins beat the Packers but lose to the Patriots and Jets. The Dolphins’ playoff odds drop to 17 percent if they beat Buffalo but lose their three remaining three games.
But the Dolphins would clinch a playoff berth if they beat the Bills, Packers and Jets but lose to the Patriots. Miami would have a 29 percent chance to win the division in that scenario.
And if the Dolphins beat the Bills, Packers and Patriots and lose to the Jets, they would have a 99 percent chance to make the playoffs with a 22 percent chance to win the division.
The Jets close with home games against Detroit and Jacksonville, a road game at Seattle and then a game at Miami.
The Patriots close with a road game at Las Vegas, home games against Cincinnati and Miami and then a game at Buffalo.
The Chargers close with games at home against Tennessee, at Indianapolis, home against the Rams and at Denver.
THIS AND THAT
Five Dolphins missed practice on Wednesday: left tackle Terron Armstead (who’s dealing with a knee issue in addition to a pectoral issue that sidelined him for the 49ers game), running back Jeff Wilson Jr. (hip), safeties Eric Rowe (hamstring) and Elijah Campbell (concussion) and receiver River Cracraft (calf).
Mike McDaniel declined to clarify if Wilson will miss the Buffalo game and said of Armstead’s new knee injury: “When you’re physically unable to practice as much as you want, the callouses you can’t build and there’s a trickle-down effect that it’s not surprising.”
Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater (knee) and tight end Durham Smythe (knee/quad) were limited. Receiver Tyreek Hill (ankle) practiced fully.
▪ Dolphins-Chargers was NBC’s lowest-rated Week 14 Sunday night game since Washington-Baltimore in 2008. Among the reasons: Ratings for the home team in South Florida and Los Angeles have traditionally been among the worst in the country.
The game was viewed in 11.7 percent of Miami-Fort Lauderdale homes with TV sets, which is underwhelming for a prime-time game involving the home team. Nationally, the game was viewed in 8.7 percent of homes with television sets.
▪ CBS-4 will simulcast NFL Network’s coverage of the Dolphins-Bills game on Saturday night, with Fox’s Kevin Kugler and Mark Sanchez on the call. Free TV affiliates in West Palm Beach and Ft. Myers are not permitted to air the game, per NFL broadcast rules, but the game will be available there and nationally on NFL Network and the network’s app.
This story was originally published December 14, 2022 at 5:33 PM.
