Key contract issues to keep in mind as Dolphins season unfolds. Who’s safe, who’s not
How will contracts impact who’s on the Dolphins and who’s not next season?
Some details on six players and one position group overall:
▪ The Dolphins must hope that Emmanuel Ogbah resumes being as impactful as he had been the past two seasons because they’re essentially married to him next season.
Ogbah was off to a slow start after signing a four-year, $65 million deal. He has one sack and 10 tackles in six games and missed last week’s game with a back injury. He’s optimistic about playing Sunday at Detroit.
Keep in mind that Ogbah’s $15 million salary for 2023 is entirely guaranteed, and his $17.3 million 2023 cap number would mushroom to $21 million if he’s cut before June 1 and would stay $17 million if he’s cut after June 1, per overthecap.com.
So the Dolphins need Ogbah to regain his 2020 and 2021 magic, when he had 18 sacks and led the league in batted passes; realistically, they cannot move on from his deal before 2024.
We’re still hopeful Ogbah returns to form, because his good work over two seasons should be more of a harbinger than his slow start to this one.
▪ Christian Wilkins is positioned to get a big contract for 2024 and beyond. Wilkins’ $10.8 million salary for 2023 is fully guaranteed, and his ‘23 cap hit would be $10.8 million unless he’s traded.
He leads all NFL defensive linemen with 39 tackles after leading defensive linemen with 89 last season. Pro Football Focus rates him the 10th-best interior defender this season. The pass rush numbers are modest (.05 sacks this season, 4.5 in his three plus years), but Wilkins has become a very good player.
▪ There is some flexibility with the linebacker group after this season.
At linebacker, it’s doubtful that Miami would move on from Jerome Baker, but keep in mind that none of his $8.4 million salary next season is guaranteed.
His $11.9 million cap number in 2023 shrinks to $6.25 million if he’s cut or traded before June 1, and drops to $3.1 million if he’s cut after June 1.
Considering Elandon Roberts and Duke Riley and Melvin Ingram signed one-year deals and Andrew Van Ginkel will be a free agent next March, the Dolphins have the flexibility to reshape much of their linebacker room (excluding Jaelan Phillips and Channing Tindall) if they choose to.
So this linebacker group, which has done a nice job in the wins, must continue to play well.
▪ As far as Miami’s high-priced cornerbacks are concerned, Xavien Howard is too good and young (29) to believe his early struggles are the byproduct of much of anything beyond the multiple groin injuries.
Under his restructured contract, he has a small base salary in 2023 ($1.2 million) that’s fully guaranteed, plus a prorated bonus of $8.8 million. His reasonable $10.1 million cap number in 2023 swells to $33.1 million if he’s cut before June 1 and $31.9 million if he’s traded before June 1.
If he’s cut after June 1, his cap hit would be $9.9 million.
Bottom line: Howard isn’t going anywhere; he remains a player to build around. But everyone must hope that he returns to elite form.
▪ As for Byron Jones, there’s uncertainty when he will be ready to play after March surgery in his Achilles/ankle injury that was expected to be healed by early July.
Instead, he had a setback and hasn’t yet triggered the 21-day period when a player can practice but stay on the physically unable to perform list before his team must activate him or cut him or put him on season-ending injured reserve.
If he doesn’t play this season — or returns and plays poorly — keep in mind that his $13.5 million salary is nonguaranteed in 2023.
He has a big 2023 cap hit ($18.9 million), and that cap hit drops only to $14.8 million if he’s cut before June 1 but $4.8 million if he’s cut after June 1. So if the Dolphins want to release him after this season, waiting until after June 1 makes the most sense.
The Dolphins also could try to restructure with him for the purpose of keeping him.
The Dolphins have already revised Jones’ contract to have $5.3 million dead money hit in 2025, and a $2.7 million hit in 2026, per two cap websites, even though he can become a free agent after 2024.
▪ Chase Edmonds needs to play much better during the second half of the season to give the Dolphins a reason to pay him $5.7 million in 2023; none of that money is guaranteed. His 2023 cap hit drops from $6.6 million to $600,000 if he’s cut.
Edmonds is averaging just 2.8 yards on 106 carries, despite a career 4.5 rushing average. He has dropped four passes and caught 10 for 96 yards.
▪ The Dolphins need to make it work with Cedrick Wilson Jr., who has just four receptions and played 90 snaps, because $5 million of his $7 million salary next season is guaranteed.
His $8 million cap hit in 2023 would drop to $1 million if he’s cut after June 1.
Keeping him and making it work — or trading him before next Tuesday’s deadline or in February or March — would be sensible options because of the guaranteed money.
This story was originally published October 28, 2022 at 1:11 PM.
