Why Heat needs to take its patient approach to an extreme. And the consequences otherwise
While watching their Eastern Conference rivals strengthen themselves this summer, the Heat has displayed admirable patience, clinging to their key assets in hopes of snagging a star and declining to relinquish any of those treasured assets for a player who might make them slightly, but not appreciably, better.
But now, amid murmurs from some impatient fans – and amid the Celtics adding a Malcolm Brogdon and Danilo Gallinari over here and the 76ers acquiring a P.J. Tucker and a De’Anthony Melton over there — the Heat must demonstrate not just admirable patience, but extreme patience, a willingness to resist all urges to make a move it might regret.
And with Tyler Herro, that might get uncomfortable.
Our unsolicited advice: If there’s a power forward - heck, any player - available who would make you somewhat better, but not potentially the best team in the East, don’t do it if it means dealing away first-round draft picks that should be treasured like gold.
Don’t do it if it means giving up Herro in a trade.
Here’s why: How would the Heat feel if it trades a first-rounder for Myles Turner and then a disgruntled star becomes available in February, and the Heat lacks the draft picks to make a competitive bid?
How would it feel if Miami trades a first-rounder for a pretty good power forward and then Kevin Durant eventually tells the Nets that he won’t go to Boston - whose reported offer of Jaylen Brown, Derrick White and a first-round pick - tops a Heat package of Herro, contracts and three first-round picks? (And who knows what Durant is thinking?)
If there’s a player who clearly raises your team from very good to championship level - such as Durant or Donovan Mitchell - jump on it. Dangle all your available first-round picks.
But don’t do it, certainly not before the season, for a Jae Crowder or a Turner or a player who doesn’t make you think “now that’s a championship team.”
No championship is won in December or January. If the Heat cannot get Durant or Mitchell - and the odds are against both - then there’s no need to trade valuable assets for a player who might be only a modest improvement over Caleb Martin at power forward in Erik Spoelstra’s position-less lineups.
See what’s available before the trade deadline in February. New opportunities invariably surface during a long winter, the type of trade deadline temptations that the Heat has seized on in past years with Tim Hardaway, Goran Dragic, Crowder and Victor Oladipo.
But if the Heat takes this supremely patient approach, there’s one uncomfortable decision looming: Because extending a player on his rookie contract makes that player virtually untradeable until the following offseason, keep in mind that giving Herro a lucrative extension before the mid-October deadline would eliminate the Heat’s most appealing realistic trade asset until next July.
What if the Heat extends Herro by the deadline and a star player asks for a trade in February, and the Heat lacks the assets to acquire him because it extended Herro?
Now let’s be clear: Herro deserves the extension. His work ethic, exceptional offensive skills and team-first approach should be rewarded, and an extension at four years and $100 million or so is justified.
But extending him also removes Miami’s best trade chip from play in a league where we’ve come to expect the unexpected.
What if a very good player suddenly asks for a trade in January? Such as Damian Lillard in Portland or Bradley Beal in Washington or Zion Williamson in New Orleans or De’Aaron Fox and Damontas Sabonis in Sacramento? (Let’s be clear that all of these players appear happy to be where they are.)
Does the Heat want to put itself in a position where Herro would be off the table for a full season, or a future first-round pick would have been dealt for a modest upgrade in the power rotation?
It’s important to note that the Heat is at no risk of losing Herro if it bypasses an extension. Because Herro could be “only” a restricted free agent in 11 months, Miami can match any offer for him next summer, as Phoenix did with DeAndre Ayton.
So if the Heat wants to maintain ultimate flexibility, tell Herro you love him. Tell him you value him. Tell him that next summer, you’re going to give him more money than he can spend in three lifetimes. But also tell him that extending him will limit the Heat’s flexibility in a way that takes the team realistically out of play for the next star that becomes available.
And hope he understands.
If he doesn’t, watch an angry, driven Herro try to prove to you every game why he deserves even more than $100 million.
Even though this organization has made uncomfortable choices over the years - such as deciding to allow Dwyane Wade to walk in a contract dispute - I’m not sure the Heat will have the appetite to make Herro wait.
After all, the Heat has extended rookie contract players without Herro’s resume, specifically Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson. The Heat extended Bam Adebayo even though it eliminated the potential of clearing enough cap space to sign Giannis Antetokounmpo, who ended up doing an extension with Milwaukee before hitting free agency.
So I would be surprised if the Heat tells Herro to stand by for another 11 months.
Do we recommend that Heat be patient forever, waiting for a star that might never arrive? Of course not.
But if the Heat cannot land a star, waiting until just before the trade deadline to upgrade your team seems reasonable and prudent. Give yourself more time to see what All Stars become unhappy in October, November, December, January and early February.
And remember this: The regret of relinquishing commodities that could have been parlayed into an elite player would dwarf any fleeting contentment of using your best currency to acquire something that improves your team only incrementally.
This story was originally published July 28, 2022 at 4:34 PM.
