An in-depth look at how Heat’s Martin compares with 76ers’ Tucker. And a Durant challenge
In a whirlwind 12 months, Caleb Martin has gone from a two-way contract player to a potential NBA starter on a team coming off a deep postseason run.
With the Heat losing P.J. Tucker to Philadelphia, Martin stands as arguably the best internal option to be the Heat’s starting power forward if the season started today.
The most plausible way that would change is if the Heat acquires a power forward via trade — Miami remains in pursuit of Brooklyn’s Kevin Durant — or if coach Erik Spoelstra decides to open games with a small lineup featuring Jimmy Butler at power forward, Bam Adebayo and three wing players.
The Heat averaged a robust 119.7 points per 100 possessions with Butler at power forward last season, per Cleaning The Glass. So Butler-at-the-4 is a realistic alternative, though one that would be physically taxing on him.
What about a two-natural-bigs combination? Spoelstra would need to be convinced to play Omer Yurtseven or Dwayne Dedmon for extended minutes alongside Adebayo, let alone start either one of them.
And power forwards Nikola Jovic and Haywood Highsmith are unlikely starting options, unless Highsmith — who has impressed in summer league — makes a meteoric leap in the next few months.
Martin has started 16 NBA games, including 12 for the Heat last season.
So if it ends up with Martin replacing Tucker as the Heat’s starting power forward, how do the two compare?
It’s a complicated analysis, because Tucker is the quintessential example of a player whose contributions transcend the boxscore; Martin is becoming that to a lesser extent.
In terms of tangible numbers, Martin, 26, measures up well against Tucker, 37. How they compared in several measurable areas last season:
1). Points per 36 minutes: Tucker averaged 9.8, Martin 14.5.
Edge: Martin, but with the caveat that he took 10.8 shot attempts per 36 minutes, compared with 7.8 for Tucker.
2). Overall shooting: Tucker closed last season at 48.4 percent from the field and 41.5 percent on threes. Martin closed at 50.7 and 41.3.
Edge: A wash.
3) Free throws: Tucker shot 73.8 percent, Martin 76.8.
Edge: Martin.
4). Rebounding per 36 minutes: Tucker averaged 7.0, Martin 6.0.
Edge: Tucker, barely.
5). Floor game: Tucker averaged 2.7 assists and 1.2 turnovers per 36 minutes; Martin averaged 1.7 assists and 1.4 turnovers per 36 minutes.
Edge: Tucker.
6). Most-often cited defensive numbers: Tucker averaged 1.1 steals and 0.3 blocks per 36 minutes; Martin averaged 1.5 and 0.8.
Tucker drew 10 charges in 1981 minutes, Martin 9 in 1372 minutes.
Edge: Martin.
7). Defensive field-goal percentage against. This statistic offers some insight, but doesn’t take into account blow-bys or help defense. With that caveat, both were very good in this area last season.
Martin allowed the player he defended to shoot 41.8 percent; those same players shot 45.8 percent overall.
Tucker allowed the player he defended to shoot 43.5 percent; those same players shot 46 percent overall.
Edge: Martin.
8). Switchability: Tucker, of course, has a unique skill - at 6-5 - to defend centers, power forwards and most wings.
Martin, at 6-5, can capably guard wings and also has the length and athleticism to defend some bigs, though not as well as Tucker.
During the regular season, Martin was matched against power rotation players during stretches. Giannis Antetokounmpo shot 1 for 4 against him; Nikola Jokic was 4 for 5.
In the 2022 playoffs, Martin wasn’t needed very much on power rotation players. He defended Joel Embiid for only 55 seconds, John Collins for 1:01, Clint Capela for six seconds and Al Horford for 3:19. Those players were a combined 0 for 3 shooting against Martin in those minutes.
Conversely, in a combined 29 minutes with Tucker defending them, Embiid shot just 1 for 5 with three turnovers, Collins 7 for 17, Horford 5 for 6 and Capela 0 for 1.
Martin struggled with 6-8 swing forward Jayson Tatum, who scored 16 points (6 for 9 shooting) in the 7:51 minutes that Martin was his primary defender.
Switchability edge: Tucker.
Overall, Tucker was clearly better than Martin in the 2022 playoffs, closing at 49.5 percent from the field and 45.1 percent on threes, with Martin at 40 percent and 30.3 on threes. Players defended by Tucker shot 45.4 percent in the playoffs, compared with 46.7 against Martin.
Essentially, the Heat has replaced one of the NBA’s better defenders and glue guys with a poor (but now well-compensated) man’s version of Tucker, an ascending player whose body has a decade less of mileage on it than Tucker’s.
And Miami has saved $13 million in doing so, with Tucker’s 76ers deal for three years and $33 million and Martin’s Heat contract at three years and $20 million.
Also, Tucker’s deal would have left the Heat hard-capped; Martin’s does not.
“Caleb is a multiposition player with tremendous energy that had a career year with us,” Heat president Pat Riley said. “He works hard and deserves this as much as any young player in the league.”
Whether he stands as the best option to start at power forward, come mid-October, must still play out. But statistically, he’s very much on par with Tucker.
DURANT PURSUIT
▪ The Heat’s Durant pursuit is ongoing. Heat general manager Andy Elisburg and Nets general manager Sean Marks were seen dining together at their Las Vegas hotel on Monday morning.
If the Heat doesn’t get Durant, deals for Phoenix’s Jae Crowder or perhaps Sacramento’s Harrison Barnes would become options.
But a Crowder deal would be challenging from a cap standpoint, because Miami doesn’t have available salaries that directly match up unless Phoenix takes Duncan Robinson and attaches another small piece.
Miami likely would be opposed to including a first-round pick in any deal for a power forward not named Durant, because the Heat needs its assets for an eventual trade for a star.
Signing a power forward remaining in free agency, such as Montrezl Harrell or Carmelo Anthony, isn’t a feasible option because it would put Miami into the luxury tax, presuming Udonis Haslem returns for a 20th season.
▪ As the Heat continues its pursuit of Durant, a couple of things have become clear:
If the Heat refuses to include Adebayo in any deal (and he could not be included unless the Nets simultaneously trade Ben Simmons), then Kyle Lowry almost assuredly would need to be included.
Even if Miami traded every other trade-eligible player (except Butler) on the roster — Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jovic (who becomes trade eligible on Aug. 2), Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Yurtseven and Highsmith — plus three first round picks, that wouldn’t be enough to satisfy cap rules in a two-team trade unless Miami re-signed Markieff Morris to a modest deal (as part of a pre-arranged Nets sign-and-trade) and included him in the deal for Durant.
Regardless, this is a package that likely wouldn’t be enough to satisfy the Nets anyway.
Victor Oladipo and Dedmon cannot be traded until Jan. 15; Martin cannot be dealt until Dec. 15.
This story was originally published July 11, 2022 at 12:51 PM.
