Marlins outfield - now and in the future - remains a big concern. Where things stand
The Marlins keep throwing resources into their outfield, spending tens of millions in free agency (Jorge Soler, Avisail Garcia, Adam Duvall and Corey Dickerson), making trades (Jesus Sanchez, Griffin Conine), allocating top five-round draft picks (JJ Bleday, Connor Scott, Peyton Burdick, Tanner Allen, Brady Allen, Kameron Misner) and spending in international free agency (Victor Victor Mesa, Victor Mesa Jr., Jerar Encarnacion).
And yet the Marlins don’t have a single outfielder - not at the big league level or in the minors - who they can confidently project as a starter in two years.
All three big-league starters this seasons - Sanchez and proven starters Garcia and Soler - have been big disappointments, a major reason why the Marlins entered the All Star break at 43-48.
As a rookie last season, Sanchez looked like a longterm everyday player. But his second-year struggles (his batting average has dropped from .251 to .201) raise serious concerns.
For all of Sanchez’s physical gifts - including his power (11 homers, 30 RBI in 80 games) - he doesn’t get on base nearly enough. He has taken only 20 walks in 298 plate appearances this season. His .261 on-base percentage ranks fourth worst in MLB, among 157 qualifiers.
“You would like to see him get on base more with the walks,” manager Don Mattingly said. “It’s understanding what he wants to hit off that [pitcher]: What that pitcher does, how do I want to attack him and how do I leave their stuff alone... It’s being selective.”
Soler (.209) and Garcia (.225) have performed well below expectations and must play a lot better to justify the contracts.
Garcia’s production has dropped from .262, .330 on-base percentage, 29 homers, 86 RBI in 135 games with the Brewers in 2021 to .225, .262, 6 homers, 28 RBI in 77 games in his first year with the Marlins.
That .262 on-base percentage is fifth worst among 157 big-league players with enough at bats to qualify.
“We don’t feel there’s anything really wrong with his swing,” Mattingly said. “There’s been a lot of chase [after pitches out of the zone]. We’re always working, not saying OK, he’ll be fine. We’re trying to get him to understand your swing looks the same as it did in Milwaukee. It’s just a matter of getting his contact points back.
“He’s out there a little on the slider, and to me, it’s causing more chase and [less] contact. If that ball is close to him, he’s way better, and not out reaching. That’s what we’ve been talking about” with him.
Soler has 13 homers and 34 RBI in 70 games, but that .299 on-base average ranks 127th of 157 qualifiers.
So the Marlins top four outfielders - including Bryan De La Cruz (.209) - are all hitting between .201 and .225. Though Mattingly said the Marlins’ don’t use batting average as a evaluation tool, is that a concern?
“I think it’s a little bit of a concern,” Mattingly said. “Avi is better [than that]. Soly is [typically] not in that range. I don’t think Sanchy is really in that range. I think he’s better. Guys who hit .300 are hitting the ball hard a lot. They’re not just getting all lucky hits.
“To hit .300, they’re hitting the ball hard a lot. That to me is where average matters. If you’re hitting .200, I don’t know how much you are hitting the ball hard. I’d rather a guy would be hitting harder with some damage too.
“Those [outfield] positions profile as home run and RBI spots. If it’s a high average with 10 RBI, that doesn’t do you any good in those spots. You want guy who do a little bit of everything.”
As for the Marlins’ minor-league outfield prospects, there’s some reason for hope -- but also not enough contact hitting from some of the more highly-touted players.
Scott - Derek Jeter’s first first-round pick and a disappointment despite being billed as a five-tool prospect - was dealt to Pittsburgh in the Jacob Stallings deal and Misner was dealt to Tampa for Joey Wendle. Scott, incidentally, continues his modest production at Double A for the Pirates (.251, 2, 25), while Misner is at .228, 12, 41 in Double A for the Rays.
This is notable: Not a single of the Marlins’ top 10 outfield prospects is hitting even .270. (And, yes, we know batting average is an antiquated stat to some in the modern day game.)
Encarnacion, Bleday and Conine arguably have had the best year of the Marlins’ remaining outfield prospects.
Encarnacion, who hit a grand slam in his Marlins debut during a two-game big league cameo this year, is hitting .246, 8, 19 in 46 games at Triple A Jacksonville.
Bleday has 20 homers and 50 RBI in 84 games, with a solid .365 on-base percentage. But he’s hitting .226 at Jacksonville after hitting .212 at Double A Pensacola last season.
Burdick is at .229, though at least he takes a lot of walks and has a decent .353 on base average, with 11 homers and 41 RBI in 77 games at Jacksonville.
“JJ, what we’re seeing with a lot of these guys is you look at the 2020 season and guys not getting 400-500 plate appearances so you’re not seeing the progression as quickly as you would want to see it,” Marlins general manager Kim Ng told me. “JJ, Peyton Burdick are [still] good prospects. Performance is going to start ramping up here.”
At Double A, Conine - Jeff’s son - has put up solid numbers (.251, .375 on base, 13 HR, 48 RBI in 76 games) but is still striking out too much (114 in 323 plate appearances).
Victor Victor Mesa (.220 in 204 plate appearances in Pensacola) is fizzling as a prospect at 25, despite all the hype.
Center fielder Thomas Jones, a third-rounder in 2016, is hitting .147 in 138 plate appearances at Pensacola.
Speedy JD Orr is hitting .228 in 158 plate appearances at Pensacola; but at least he has a .399 on-base percentage and is 29 for 30 on steals. So he has played well after his promotion from High A Beloit.
At Beloit, Victor Mesa Jr. shows signs of life (.263, 4 homers, 40 RBI), but not enough to convince anybody that he’s going to be a big league starter.
Tanner Allen, the 2021 fourth-rounder out of Mississippi State, is hitting .209 at Beloit. Davis Bradshaw, a 2018 11th rounder out of Meridian Community College, has had some very good at-bats at Beloit (.312).
At Low A Jupiter, the Marlins’ top outfield prospects are producing modest results so far.
Brady Allen, the 2021 fifth-rounder out of South Carolina, is at .243, .328 on-base, 8 homers, 42 RBI in 77 games at Jupiter.
Osiris Johnson - a second-rounder in 2018 out of an Alameda, Cal, high school - was at .247, .303, 5 homers, 28 RBI at Jupiter before his promotion to Beloit.
At one point, the Marlins seemed like they had a wealth of outfield riches. Now they have a big league outfield without a single starter with an on-base average of .300 and a minor league outfield with talent (Encarnacion, Bleday, Burdick, Conine), but not a single one looking like a can’t-miss prospect.
That’s one element that has kept the Marlins from taking the jump they expected in year five of the new ownership’s rebuild. And an element that should concern all Marlins fans.
This story was originally published July 19, 2022 at 1:38 PM.
