The agonizing element in potential Bam/Durant Heat trade decision: Scouts weigh in
For the Heat, there’s no decision seemingly more difficult this summer than this one: Should Bam Adebayo be offered — along with multiple other appealing assets — in a trade for 33-year-old future Hall of Famer Kevin Durant?
At least some of the Heat’s initial efforts to acquire Durant from the Nets are not believed to have included Adebayo in a trade package — a deal that, by league rule, would require Brooklyn to trade Ben Simmons if it acquires Adebayo.
Though there is some internal Heat sentiment toward not including Adebayo in a Durant deal, it’s unclear whether the Heat ultimately would do so.
If Durant were three years younger, the decision would be easier.
But with Durant missing 23 games with a hamstring injury last season — and 27 overall — and three years removed from a significant Achilles tendon injury, the issue becomes whether the Heat should go to the trouble of figuring out a way to navigate the arcane NBA rule that prevents two traded players with max rookie extensions from being on the same team.
That rule would require the Nets to trade Simmons to the Heat or elsewhere in order to acquire Adebayo in a Durant trade. Any trade for Durant also likely would require Miami to trade Tyler Herro and multiple first-round picks to the Nets.
Durant, of course, is the better player (heck, he’s better than most every NBA player), and a strong case could be made for offering Adebayo. The team that obtains the best player in a trade usually wins the trade.
But a strong case could be made against this. ESPN’s Zach Lowe offered that case:
“If Durant and the Heat are trying to win a championship, Bam has got to be on this team. Durant would need to play with Bam in Miami for them to have a realistic shot to win the title. [But] the Nets would not do a one for one trade without Adebayo in the deal.”
Lowe’s conclusion? “If the Heat can pull this off, I would be surprised [though] I don’t doubt them. Tyler Herro and three first-round picks and some swaps and some salary, that’s not enough.”
Here’s the case against offering Adebayo, who turned 25 on Monday and is eight years younger than Durant: He’s one of the reasons that Durant is believed to have included the Heat on his short list of preferences. He appreciates Adebayo’s game and work ethic.
The Heat’s defense would be dramatically diminished without Adebayo, perhaps the league’s most skilled big at guarding any position. And despite the offensive inconsistency in his game in the playoffs, he did average 19.1 points, with 10.1 rebounds and 3.4 assists last season.
If the Nets could somehow send Simmons to a third team and took Adebayo, plus Herro, and two or three first-round picks, here’s the question:
Are you better with a starting group of Durant, Butler, Dwayne Dedmon, Kyle Lowry and Max Strus (and no Herro or future first-rounders) or Butler, Caleb Martin, Adebayo, Lowry and Herro, with Strus off the bench and keeping your first-rounders? Victor Oladipo would be on either roster; he cannot be traded until Jan. 15.
The first group — with Durant — is better now. But if Durant’s body breaks down again, this could be a lottery or play-in team without Adebayo and Herro. And the Durant/Adebayo age difference, and the cost of losing Herro, plus the elimination of all future draft picks, cannot simply be glossed over.
One source close to Adebayo said he doubts Miami will trade him, but added that the Heat has not told Adebayo if he’s off limits in a Durant deal. And Adebayo hasn’t sought such assurances.
Here’s how two longtime NBA scouts responded when asked by the Miami Herald whether the Heat should be willing to trade Adebayo in a deal for Durant, while acknowledging the challenges created by the Nets needing to deal Simmons in such a scenario:
▪ First scout: “If I were the Heat, I would do it. You’re getting the better player. Durant is arguably the second- or third-best player in the league. To win it all, you need two major players. Jimmy Butler, as great as he was, wasn’t enough. Herro gets hurt in the playoffs. And even if Herro were healthy, it’s not clear to me that Butler and Herro were enough as your best scorers.
“Adebayo had to be a lot better in the playoffs than he was. Is Bam going to get that much better? I’m not sure he can raise his offensive game to another level. You would still keep Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson in that proposal [if the Nets are able to trade Simmons to a third team]. Dedmon and [Omer] Yurtseven are serviceable as your [centers] in this day and age.
“To me, it’s not a no-brainer, because you’re weighing whether you want to win now against what’s better long-term. But they’re in a win-now mode. I would do it. And I would do it even if you need to take Simmons [which likely would require the inclusion of Lowry and additional salary]. Simmons is salvageable in that system, and with Butler, Simmons and Durant, you would have trouble scoring against them. But Simmons’ back is a concern. He’s had a lot of back issues.”
Second scout: “If you’re the Heat, you make that trade, even if you need to include Simmons. If you have an opportunity to get a player like Kevin Durant, you do it. From my relationship with Pat Riley, I believe the Heat would make that trade [including Adebayo] if given the option. I’m not sure that would be enough for Brooklyn.
“As good as Bam is, I don’t think he will be a league MVP and multiple-time All-Star like Durant. Bam needs to become a better scorer. Durant’s age is a hindrance to some but not to Miami. They’ve gotten the most out of guys up in age. Durant and Jimmy put you in the immediate conversation with championship level teams.
“Dedmon and Yurtseven I don’t think is enough at [center], but that doesn’t keep me from making the deal. They could add a center in the buyout market or with a trade. I would be all in even if you need to take Simmons. Another ball-handling playmaker who can defend. You have two high-level attackers [Durant, Butler] and another guy who can defend [Simmons]. Shooting would be a concern, but they would be strong on the wings. To me, it’s an easy sell.”
NEWS NOTE
The Brooklyn Nets’ preseason schedule, announced Monday, includes an Oct. 6 home game against the Heat. Miami previously announced only its home preseason games: Oct. 4 against Minnesota, Oct. 10 vs. Houston and Oct. 12 vs. New Orleans.
This story was originally published July 18, 2022 at 12:46 PM.
