Veteran NBA scout sizes up key Heat players before free agency and how they’re viewed now
A six-week, 18-game stretch of high-pressure playoff games can shape how NBA players are viewed around the league.
Here’s how one longtime Eastern Conference NBA scout sized up the Heat’s primary players after Miami’s playoff run ended, with free agency beginning at 6 p.m. on Thursday (all of the below players are under contract for next season except P.J. Tucker and Victor Oladipo):
▪ Jimmy Butler: “He improved his stature in the league, unquestionably. Not many people can do what he did at that level [for six weeks]. He was a go-to guy. Plus, he’s being targeted, playing against one of the top two defensive teams in the league in the conference finals and he did all of that with very little help. And he’s defending. He went up a notch. Definitely a top 15 player at least.”
▪ Bam Adebayo: The scout said that even while acknowledging all of Adebayo’s outstanding defense and screen-setting, “he’s got to be more productive offensively. He’s just not a reliable enough scorer for me. He’s not a No. 2 [scorer].
“I do quibble with him being a max player, because at times against Boston, you didn’t know he was out there. I know he can pass. But he needs to add something - a more consistent 15 foot shot, a better mid-range game, something in the post. He’s not a three-point shooter, and I don’t see that changing. He needed to do more offensively; I’m not sure he’s going to get there.”
▪ Tyler Herro: “His playoffs pre-injury were very disappointing. He showed such a big jump this year; besides being Sixth Man of the Year, he could have been Most Improved Player, too. But it’s about May and June. The thing is, he has a game that should translate to the postseason. His ability to get his shot off the dribble was his most improved skill, to me.
“He has to continue to get stronger. His defense is a major issue. He gets targeted defensively, and there’s more growth he needs to make there.
“I wouldn’t give him Jaylen Brown extension money [four years, $115 million], but you do need to extend him [when he becomes eligible next month]. Four years, at least $90 million is fair.”
▪ Kyle Lowry: “I say, ‘You better get in shape.’ You combine being out of shape, heavy and the injury was clearly hampering him, and you see what happened.
“I’m not saying he’s got a lot of speed and quickness, but he was half a step slower than he should have been because of the hamstring. At his age [36], he’s going to have to be in much better shape. He was pretty good during the season [10th in NBA in assist average]. He has to be at least the regular season level to justify the contract [due $28.3 million and $29.7 million the next two seasons].
“If this [playoff version] is what he is, he’s a backup. But I don’t think this is who is. The hamstring clearly affected him. But I would feel a tad worried. I think he needs a good talking to with Pat Riley.” (After I spoke with the scout, Riley said publicly last week that Lowry must get in better shape.)
▪ Max Strus: “He’s an NBA starter on a good team, which is more than anybody expected, but he’s probably your fourth or fifth guy. They had to rely on him too much. He will get more attention now too. He’s got to expand his game. He can shoot a little bit off the dribble. He’s not strictly a catch and shoot guy.”
▪ Gabe Vincent: “He made a significant jump. He is a solid backup now, top half of the league among backup point guards. He has what you want your backup point guard to be - can make shots, defend, play-make. A lot of teams would like to have him, I’m sure. The question is has he topped out?”
▪ Oladipo, an impending unrestricted free agent: “Obviously, he’s not the guy he was. I still think he can probably be a good reserve. Is he a good starter on a good team any more? No. I don’t think so. But I think he can be an effective seventh, eighth man. I’m not sure he’s a sixth man on a serious contender because his offensive efficiency concerns me.
“The defense at times was very good. The shooting always has been suspect. He’s going to have to accept a lesser role. He’s not the guy he was at one point. Will he ever get that back? I don’t know.
“He’s not a reliable enough scorer/shooter at this point for me to project him as a starter. He’s worth half of a [$10.3 million] mid-level exception. There’s the injury history that factors into that. The inconsistency offensively doesn’t merit a full mid-level in my view.”
▪ Robinson: “I’m sure they’ll try to trade him. They found a cheaper guy who’s better [in Strus]. He’s a luxury. What you see is what you get and it said something that they didn’t play him much even in the absence of Herro. So what’s the point of moving ahead with him?
“The league knows he’s overpaid and one-dimensional and isn’t going to get much better. You’ll probably need to include a No. 1 pick [from Miami] to move” the final four years of his five-year, $90 million contract.
▪ Tucker, who is reportedly likely to sign with Philadelphia: “He’s fine. You need those kinds of guys for a championship run. He’s a cog in the machine. Defends well, shot threes well.
“Bottom line is they just couldn’t score enough without Herro [healthy or at his best] and with Lowry playing like that. It was too much Butler all the time.”
