Sizing up some of Marlins’ top pitching prospects and how they performed this season

Part 7 of a 7-part series on the state of the Marlins’ rebuild and the franchise’s future.

The Marlins’ rebuild has been derailed by an inability to eyeball and develop good young hitters. But at least the franchise has quality young pitching depth.

In part 5, we examined three of the Marlins’ most talented young pitchers (Eury Perez, Max Meyer and Sixto Sanchez) and two who impressed this season: Edward Cabrera and Braxton Garrett.

Here, in part 7, we examine the other pitchers rated among MLB.com’s list of top 30 Marlins prospects:

▪ Jake Eder (Marlins’ No. 4 prospect, per mlb.com):

He missed the season after Tommy John surgery, and the Marlins hope he returns next season as dominant as he was last season (1.77 ERA in 15 starts, with 99 strikeouts and 43 hits allowed in 71 ⅓ innings).

MLB.com raves about him: “A pro scout with another organization called Eder the best pitching prospect in baseball after seeing him, and the lefty maintained a plus fastball and slider all summer until he got hurt. He parked at 93-96 mph and touched 98 with his four-seam heater, creating riding action up in the zone and commanding it better than ever. He tightened his low-80s slider, generating more horizontal break and locating it with more precision than he had in the past.

“Eder also made strides with his low-80s changeup, which features some fade and tumble, and his ability to throw all three pitches for strikes. His strong 6-foot-4 frame should give him the durability needed for starting and his size also creates a difficult angle for hitters. Assuming he returns to full health after elbow reconstruction, he could become a No. 3 starter and possibly more.”

▪ Dax Fulton (No. 8):

The left-hander, selected in the second round in 2020 out of an Oklahoma high school, had a 4.07 ERA in 20 starts at High A Beloit this season and a 3.94 ERA in three starts in Double A Pensacola.

He struck out 120 in 97 innings at Beloit and 21 in 16 innings in Pensacola.

MLB.com noted that “the Marlins paid him $2.4 million, a record for a high school pitcher who missed his entire senior season. His stuff got stronger over the course of his pro debut in 2021, when he earned a promotion to High-A as a 19-year-old in August.

“His best pitch is a low-80s curveball with power and depth that absolutely destroys left-handers…. He has good body control for a tall youngster and repeats his athletic delivery well, so he should have at least average control and command once he’s full developed. If he has more velocity in his tank and can improve his changeup, he could develop into a No. 2 starter.”

▪ Jacob Miller (No. 10):

The right-hander, selected in the second round this past June out of an Ohio high school, had a 12.27 ERA in three starts in rookie league and allowed one run in two innings at Jupiter.

MLB.com assessed him this way: “Miller hit 97 mph with his fastball in his first start this spring and continued to show quality stuff throughout his high school senior season. Gatorade’s Ohio player of the year, he had a combination of velocity, secondary offerings and pitchability that ranked among the best in the 2022 prep class. The Marlins drafted him in the second round and signed him away from a Louisville commitment for $1,697,900…

“Although Miller isn’t very physical and doesn’t have a textbook delivery, he’s loose and athletic and his arm works well. He’s a tough competitor who attacks hitters, provides consistent strikes and shows the aptitude to locate his curveball wherever he wants. His high three-quarters arm slot creates angle and helps him stay on top of his breaking pitches.”

▪ Karson Milbrandt (No. 17):

The right-handers, Miami’s third-round pick out of a Missouri high school in June, pitched only two innings for the organization this season, allowing two runs.

MLB.com says: “Milbrandt had some of the best fastball spin rates in the 2022 prep class, generating 2,800 rpm on a four-seamer that sits in the low 90s and peaks at 96 mph…. More athletic than most pitchers, Milbrandt provides consistent strikes. While he will need time to refine his secondary pitches and command, he could develop rapidly as he adds strength and focuses on baseball. He has the upside of a No. 3 starter.”

▪ Zach McCambley (No. 23):

The right-hander, picked in the third round out of Coastal Carolina in 2020, went 6-8 with a 5.65 ERA in 19 starts at Double A Pensacola this season, allowing too many base-runners (135 in 94 innings), with 101 strikeouts.

MLB.com says McCambley “had arguably the best curveball in the 2020 Draft… Though the Marlins will continue to develop McCambley as a starter for now, he likely will wind up as a reliever. His mid-80s changeup is too firm and lacks consistent life, and the effort in his delivery detracts from his ability to locate his fastball and curveball with much precision. He has the stuff to play a high-leverage role coming out of the bullpen, especially if he adds more velocity working in shorter stints.”

▪ M.D. Johnson (No. 27):

The right-hander, picked in the sixth round in 2019 out of Dallas Baptist University, went 9-9 with a 3.46 ERA in 20 starts at High A Beloit. He struck out 125 and allowed 89 hits in 112 innings.

Batters hit just .170 against him in 2021, third-lowest in the minors.

MLB.com calls Johnson a “lanky 6-foot-5 frame that creates extension and angle that make it difficult for hitters to pick up his pitches. He does a good job of keeping his herky-jerky delivery in sync, and the Marlins believe his control issues were more the result of not trusting his stuff rather than mechanical issues. He has enough weapons and the durability to remain in the rotation, along with the ceiling of a No. 4 or 5 starter.”

▪ Marcus Johnson (No. 28):

The right-hander, selected in the fourth round from Duke University this past June, allowed seven runs in 12 ⅓ innings in Jupiter, but with 24 strikeouts.

His numbers weren’t great at Duke: 6-11, 4.45 ERA, seven saves, including went 1-8 with a 5.61 ERA as a starter this past season for the Blue Devils.

But the Marlins like his potential as a starter.

MLB.com said “Johnson’s best pitch is a high-spin slider that sits at 82-85 and has two-plane depth when it’s on. Moving to the rotation increased Johnson’s need for a changeup, and he’s making strides with a fading mid-80s cambio. He has room to add plenty of strength to his lanky 6-foot-6 frame and the athleticism to keep his long limbs in sync. He has a clean delivery and throws enough strikes to remain a starter, but he’ll need to miss more bats with his fastball in pro ball.”

▪ Andrew Nardi (No. 29):

The Marlins promoted him this month after solid work out of the bullpen in Jacksonville and Pensacola, but he was hit hard, allowing 18 hits and 13 runs in 10 innings for the Marlins, albeit with 16 strikeouts.

Departing manager Don Mattingly said “his stuff plays. He’s got a good fastball, can play at the top of the zone, has a good breaking ball.”

The left-hander and former 16th-round pick uses “his 6-foot-3 frame [to create an] angle that is especially difficult on lefties and holds his own against righties,” per MLB.com. “His deception doesn’t prevent him from throwing strikes, and he has proven capable of succeeding in multiple-inning outings. He doesn’t have a huge ceiling but is a versatile reliever who earned his first big league callup in mid-August.”

▪ Josh Simpson (No. 30):

The lefty, picked in the 32nd round out of Columbia University in 2019, had a 3.88 ERA in 40 relief appearances in Pensacola and 4.50 ERA in seven relief appearances in Jacksonville.

But the overall numbers are awfully impressive: He allowed just 38 hits (with 33 walks) in 63 ⅔ innings innings between the two stops, while striking out 103.

MLB.com says “Simpson has the stuff to fill a bullpen role in the Majors but will need to throw more strikes to get there. He has battled the strike zone while missing a ton of bats this season. Besides his stuff, he also earns praise for his intelligence and competitiveness.”

Here’s part 1 of the series on whatever happened to the Marlins’ top 35 position players during this regime, and how few so far have worked out.

Here’s part 2 of the series on the team’s top 10 position prospects and the team’s growing payroll disparity within their division.

Here’s part 3 of the series on some of the other position prospects.

Here’s part 4 on how the Marlins plan to fundamentally change the way they construct their team offensively.

Here’s part 5 of the series with Marlins’ comments and news on five of their key pitchers.

Here’s part 6 on whether the Marlins can win with a low payrolls, what history shows regarding this, and comments from Don Mattingly and a Marlins veteran player.

This story was originally published October 6, 2022 at 2:59 PM.

Barry Jackson

Miami Herald

305-376-3491

Barry Jackson has written for the Miami Herald since 1986 and has written the Florida Sports Buzz column since 2002.