Exploring surprising issue with Dolphins’ Tagovailoa and where improvement is most needed
As we enter Week 1 of this season of judgment of Tua Tagovailoa, everybody knows the areas he must improve: pushing the ball down the field consistently, and making better decisions when facing a heavy pass rush.
But here’s another less-discussed area where he must show significant growth: intermediate throws.
The good news: In 2021, Tagovailoa had the league’s second-highest completion percentage on passes thrown at least 20 air yards (48 percent; 14 for 29). He didn’t throw many deep balls, but was often accurate — contrary to perception — when he did.
But on all passes thrown 11 yards or more, Tagovailoa completed just 44 percent of his passes, which was 26th in the league, according to ESPN.
The reason: He was poor on throws between 11 and 19 yards.
Consider these numbers, courtesy of Pro Football Focus:
▪ When Tagovailoa threw between the numbers on passes that traveled 11 to 19 yards, he had a 71.1 NFL passer rating (32 for 57 for 524 yards, one touchdown, three interceptions).
▪ When he threw to the outside right on passes that traveled 11 to 19 yards, he had a brutal 12.5 NFL passer rating (5 for 15, 80 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions).
▪ When he threw to the outside left on passes that traveled 11 to 20 yards, he was good: a 93.1 passer rating (13 for 26, 161 yards, four touchdowns, one interception). Because Tagovailoa is a left-hander, it makes sense that he’s better throwing to his left than his right.
So on all passes thrown 11 to 19 yards, Tagovailoa had an unacceptable 68.6 passer rating: 50 completions in 98 attempts for 765 yards, with five touchdowns and six interceptions.
Conversely, he was excellent on short throws. On passes that traveled between one and 10 air yards, he completed 77 percent of them, according to ESPN. That was second best in the league.
Perhaps that 11-to-19-yard performance will improve, with Tyreek Hill on the receiving end of those intermediate routes — and with potentially more time to throw behind a better offensive line.
And the performance in the face of a pass rush simply must improve.
Per PFF, Tua went 54 fo -106 from a pressured pocket, with a 34.2 passer grade (not passer rating, but PFF grade) when defenders were in his face, with three TDs and seven interceptions.
He often avoided sacks in those situations (taking just 19), but only Jimmy Garoppolo had a wider disparity between his PFF grade in a clean pocket and when he faced pressure. Tagovailoa had an 83.6 PFF passing grade from a clean pocket, a difference of 49.4.
So the two areas for growth are clear: intermediate throws and making better decisions when pass rushers cave in on him.
What’s going to be expected of Tagovailoa this season?
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky explained it well:
“I think people need to understand that Tua is not going to be asked to be a Patrick Mahomes or a Josh Allen. He’s going to be asked to be precise in all of the little details when it comes to operating this offense.
“I think the most important stuff for Tua and it’s not easy for everybody at home; when Mike McDaniel calls these plays, you’ve got to be precise with your snap point motion. So if the motion and the ball has to get snapped behind the tackle, it can’t be behind the guard or behind the tight end. It has to go to the right guy at the right time.
“So a four-yard catch becomes an eight-yard catch. It’s going to be a new age West Coast offense that is all about the speed and how well they can do all the little things.”
Here’s what ESPN’s Tim Hasselbeck said would be viewed as a successful season for Tagovailoa:
“He’s got to start every game, throw for over 3,600 yards and throw for 25 touchdowns. If you do that, it would give Miami the feeling that we can keep building around him.”
As perspective, 17 quarterbacks topped 3,600 yards passing last season; Tagovailoa had 2,653 in 13 games (though he played less than a half in two of those games). Eleven QBs threw at least 25 touchdown passes; Tagovailoa threw 16.
Hasselbeck has been generally bullish about Tagovailoa, noting “he’s been somewhat unfairly criticized.”
A couple of more Tagovailoa nuggets, courtesy of Pro Football Focus:
▪ He led the league in red-zone completion percentage last season at 66.1. Mahomes was second at 64.9 and Dak Prescott third at 63.8.
▪ Per PFF’s Ryan Smith, Tagovailoa had a 106.5 passer rating on play action, just a 77.4 rating when he didn’t do play action. Per Smith, 42.4 percent of his dropbacks were play action. So Mike McDaniel should use that a lot.
▪ The Dolphins have added multiple players who are above average in producing yards after catch — Hill, Chase Edmonds and Cedrick Wilson Jr. That will naturally add to Tagovailoa’s passing yardage numbers.
Wilson averaged 5.6 yards after the catch in 2021, which was 14th among receivers. Hill’s 444 YAC yards were 17th in the league.
Consider that the Dolphins averaged just 4.3 yards after the catch last season, third worst in the league — ahead of only Baltimore and Buffalo.
One other Tagovailoa note:
Former coach Brian Flores wanted Tagovailoa to spend more time working on his one off day each week. So it was interesting that general manager Chris Grier said this on Tuesday when asked a general question about his quarterback:
“The other day he was in visiting with Mike for a couple hours on an off day just coming in, spending time. He was downstairs in the training room for like an hour just hanging out with the trainers just talking. Seeing his personality come in, and it’s just how he is. I think his teammates all see it and feel it.”
SCARLETT SETTLEMENT
The Dolphins and defensive end/linebacker Brennan Scarlett, who had been on injured reserve with a foot injury, have reached an injury settlement and he is being released, per a source. That allows him to play this season, possibly for the Dolphins, who will consider bringing him back when he’s healthy.
He is expected to be healthy by Week 7 or 8. Had he stayed on IR, he would have been required to miss this season because he was placed on IR before the team set its 53-man roster.
Scarlett appeared in 13 games and started four for the Dolphins last season and had 19 tackles. He played 19 percent of Miami’s defensive snaps and 77 percent of the Dolphins’ special teams snaps.
▪ Former Dolphins receiver Preston Williams joined the Carolina Panthers’ practice squad.
This story was originally published September 6, 2022 at 3:05 PM.
