Who should be taking the clutch shots for Heat with game on line? What the data shows
It was late in the Heat’s final game before the All-Star break, and Jimmy Butler - who had missed 19 of his first 22 shots on that frustrating February night in Charlotte - got the ball with 24 seconds left, dribbled for awhile and then took and missed a 21-footer at the end of regulation.
Then, minutes later, on a possession in the final seconds of the first overtime, Butler launched a three-pointer that was blocked with the game tied, before rallying to hit two key jumpers in the second OT to propel the Heat into the All Star break with a win.
Similar snapshots of Butler dribbling down the clock and launching from the perimeter – visions ingrained in the minds of Heat fans – have raised a question that again faces Erik Spoelstra during this postseason:
Who should have the ball in their hands in the final seconds, with the outcome in the balance, and who should take the majority of those shots?
First, let’s correct a misconception:
Butler didn’t take the most shots this season with the game on the line; it was close between Butler and Tyler Herro.
When the Heat trailed by three points or fewer - or the game was tied - in the final minute this season, Herro took 11 shots (12th most in the league in that situation) and Butler took nine shots (22nd most).
In the final 10 seconds with the game tied or the Heat behind by three points or fewer, Butler took five shots, Herro four.
Herro said he relishes that role: “We have a couple of different options at the end of games, shot clock going down.”
But here’s the reality: For two seasons, the Heat has been among the worst teams in the league in those late-game situations.
Last season, with the game tied or Miami trailing by three or fewer in the final 10 seconds, the Heat shot 2 for 10 and 0 for 6 on threes.
This season, Miami shot 1 for 12 from the field in those situations, that 8.3 shooting percentage ranking 29th in the league, barely ahead of Cleveland (1 for 13). The Heat was 0 for 7 in threes in that situation.
Making late game shots is never easy, but the Suns were 5 for 8 on those types of shots this season, Brooklyn 4 for 8.
On those final 10-second shots this season, Butler was 0 for 5, including 0 for 3 on threes. Herro was 0 for 4, including 0 for 3 on threes. (Their accuracy was similarly poor in the final minute of such games.)
Bam Adebayo and Max Strus were both 0 for 1 in those final 10-second close-game situations. The Heat’s only basket all season in that precise situation was from Kyle Lowry, who made his only attempt.
And that raises two questions: Should Butler be taking threes in that spot, considering he shot 23.3 percent this season on three-pointers (27 for 116)?
And should Lowry take more of those late-game shots?
Lowry has been very good in the clutch this season, defined by the NBA as the final five minutes with a margin of five points or fewer. He’s shooting 50 percent (19 for 38) in clutch minutes, compared with 36.0 percent (18 for 50) for Herro and 31.4 percent (16 for 51) for Butler, who has missed 11 of his 12 clutch three-pointers.
On the flip side, Lowry had gone 1 for 12 over the previous five seasons with Toronto when he shoots in the final 10 seconds with his team either tied or down by three points or fewer.
So there’s no perfect panacea.
Here’s the case to go with Herro with the game on the line: He was magical in those moments during the Heat’s Finals run in the Orlando bubble, shooting 5 for 9 from the field and 4 for 7 on threes in the clutch. And he’s the team’s most gifted offensive player.
The case to put the ball in Butler’s hands in the final seconds of close games? He has the ability to drive and create contact or pass to an open shooter if a defender comes to help. And remember, Butler was great in the clutch during that Orlando bubble Finals run, shooting 8 for 12 from the field in the final five minutes of close games that postseason.
So Butler and Lowry (who aren’t available to reporters until later in the week) and Herro remain the most obvious options to take shots in the final minute, with the game on the line.
But there are others. Adebayo shot 9 for 17 (a team-best 52.9 percent) in the clutch this season (final five minutes with a margin of five points or fewer). PJ Tucker was 4 for 9.
Strus for 5 for 12 and 5 for 10 on threes, and Miami outscored teams by 30 during Strus’ 53 clutch minutes, by far the best clutch plus/minus on the team.
“Whether it’s me, Jimmy, Bam, Kyle, we all can close games out together,” Herro said Wednesday. “Whoever has the hot hand, we can ride the hot hand and try to get the win.”
Overall, the Heat - for a second consecutive season - was among the NBA’s worst shooting teams in the clutch, and unless the Heat can avoid close games (unlikely), that must be corrected to sustain a long playoff run.
The Heat shot 37.5 percent in the clutch last season (29th in the league) and 40.6 this season (23rd), while the Suns shot 57.8 and the Bucks 47.1.
On the plus side: Miami’s clutch three-point shooting jumped from a league worst 22.9 last season (19 for 83) to 36.2 this season (fifth), despite Butler’s 1 for 12.
On clutch free throws, Miami was 14th at 78 percent, with Adebayo (20 for 25) and Butler (15 for 18) both delivering from the line in the clutch.
This shouldn’t be overlooked: The Heat has won more close games than it has lost, going 23-15 in games involving clutch minutes. That 60.5 winning percent is fifth in the league. But that record falls to 1-7 (among the league’s worst) when Miami is down one or tied in the final 10 seconds.
Bottom line: The Heat needs to shoot better late in close games. And it begins with figuring out who to take those shots, with matchups a factor worth considering but hardly the only one.
This story was originally published April 13, 2022 at 4:20 PM.
