What the Dolphins are getting in Chase Edmonds and why he’s the darling of metrics sites
Chatter on new Dolphins running back Chase Edmonds, in Part 2 of our series with notes, nuggets and reaction on the team’s prominent free agent additions:
▪ Edmonds instantly becomes the best running back on the roster, a player with the speed and burst to make an impact as a runner and receiver and a player ideally suited to Mike McDaniel’s wide-zone-running scheme.
As a bonus, he’s highly regarded by websites that use advanced metrics.
Last season, he was eighth in the NFL in rushing yards “over expected per attempt” and fifth in the league in efficiency (which measures a player running north and south without unnecessary added motion), per the NFL’s Next Gen statistics.
So that metrics site regards him as well above average in maximizing his rushing attempts.
▪ What’s more, 23 percent of Edmonds’ carries in 2021 reached 15 plus mph, which was first among NFL running backs with 100 carries.
The Dolphins had the fewest 15 mph carries in the NFL last season with 52. So Edmonds adds a speed element that this offense badly needed, beyond receiver Jaylen Waddle.
▪ After averaging just 3.5 yards per rush as a rookie, he has averaged 5.1, 4.6 and 5.1 the past three seasons. His 5.1 last season was sixth among all backs with a minimum of 100 carries.
That’s a big improvement over the Dolphins’ 3.5 rushing average as a team, which was 31st in the league, ahead of only Houston. With Edmonds and Raheem Mostert (5.7 per carry), the Dolphins have backs in the upper tier of yards per carry.
▪ Edmonds led all NFL running backs with 3.6 rushing yards before contact per attempt. So that’s excellent but also a byproduct of playing behind a pretty good offensive line.
▪ But his average yards after contact has dropped from 2.1 in 2019 to 1.9 in 2020 to 1.5 last season, per Pro Football Reference. That 1.5 ranked near the bottom of the league. So the Dolphins better improve at run blocking.
▪ Edmonds is dangerous as a receiver; he averaged 7.2 yards on his 43 receptions last season.
By contrast, the Dolphins’ Myles Gaskin averaged 4.8 yards on 49 receptions.
What’s more, Edmonds was 17th among all NFL backs and receivers in average receiving yards after contact, which is interesting considering he wasn’t very good after contact on rushing attempts. He was much better shaking defenders who got their arms on him on receptions than runs last season.
▪ Edmonds’ snap counts have risen every year. He played 21 percent of the Cardinals’ snaps as a rookie, then 24, 46 and 58 percent last season, when he split time with James Connor.
▪ Edmonds is an option on kickoff returns if the Dolphins want to use him there. He averaged 23.2 on 18 kickoff returns in 2020, tied for 10th in league for players with at least that many returns.
▪ He has only four fumbles on 333 career carries, which isn’t bad.
▪ Injuries have been an issue. He missed five games with a sprained ankle last season and also dealt with a shoulder injury. He missed three games in 2019 due to a hamstring issue but played in every game in 2020.
“As far as Chase goes, you’ve seen when he’s had his opportunity, he’s played at a starting running back level,” Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury said before last season.
“We all understand that he’s unfortunately been nicked up a couple times; we want to keep him on the field. But we have all the confidence in the world in Chase and him being able to be the bell cow.”
Kingsbury, in January, praised Edmonds for having a “fantastic” season and raved about his intelligence.
▪ PFF rated him the 70th-best free agent in this class, listing his positives as “agility and receiving out of the backfield” and his weaknesses as “never led a team in snaps and doesn’t force missed tackles at a high rate.”
PFF said: “Edmonds is a little bit undersized for a bell-cow workload as a lead back, but he does offer value as a receiving back who can add some explosive plays on the ground. Whether he starts the game or not, Edmonds is at his best in a complementary role to someone who can split work with him on early-down runs.”
An Edmonds/Mostert tandem should be a vast improvement over what the Dolphins have — provided Mostert regains his form after a knee injury and the Dolphins augment their offensive line beyond Connor Williams.
▪ Edmonds is a very good fit for the Dolphins’ new zone blocking running scheme. PFF noted that Arizona “is one of the biggest inside-zone rushing offenses in the NFL, and Edmonds has graded out higher in zone than gap schemes throughout his career.”
▪ Though Edmonds’ deal is for two years and $12.1 million, only $6.1 million is guaranteed (the $4.1 million signing bonus and this season’s $2 million salary). Nothing in 2023 is guaranteed.
Edmonds has a $4 million cap hit in 2022 and an $8 million hit in 2023. He will need to play well this season for Miami to keep him around in 2023.
The Dolphins now have four veteran backs (Edmonds, Mostert, Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed), plus 2021 seventh-rounder Gerrid Doaks. Duke Johnson, Phillip Lindsay and Malcolm Brown remain free agents.
Here’s part 1 of my series with tidbits on the Dolphins newcomers -- on receiver Cedrick Wilson Jr.
Here’s Day 4 of our Dolphins-flavored NFL free agency live blog.
This story was originally published March 17, 2022 at 1:56 PM.
