Chatter on what the Marlins are getting in Avisail Garcia: Part 4 of series on newcomers
Chatter on what the Marlins are getting with new outfielder Avisail Garcia:
▪ The question with Garcia is whether the power surge (a career-high 29 homers in 135 games in 2021) was a bit of an anomaly.
He has traditionally been a 15-to-20 home run hitter.
In the four previous seasons that he played in at least 120 games (for three different teams), he socked 13, 12, 18 and 20 homers. So can last season be reproduced or should the Marlins expect home run totals in the teens?
He hit just two homers in the COVID-shortened 2020, when he played in 53 games for the Brewers.
He’s moving to a ballpark that isn’t particularly friendly to power hitters, though friendlier than it once was. The good news: He’s 6 for 13 with two homers in his career at loanDepot park.
There has also been variation in his batting average in recent years, which raises some eyebrows. The last five years in order: .330 (second in the American League in that 2017 season), .236, .282, .238 and .262.
The RBI production, in recent years, has been pretty consistent: 80 in 136 games for the White Sox in 2017 (his only All Star season), 72 RBI in 125 games for Tampa in 2019. And he had 86 for the Brewers in those 135 games last season.
He’s clearly a big upgrade over what the Marlins had.
▪ Garcia, a right-handed batter, is a career .294 hitter against left-handers (.279 last year) and .261 against right-handers (.258 last year)....
Throughout his career, the production has been consistent regardless of whether he bats fourth, fifth or sixth in the lineup. He has hit between .269 and .275 in those three spots in the batting order.
▪ He’s a .286 career hitter with runners in scoring position and .280 with two outs and runners in scoring position.
And he was great in those spots in 2021, hitting .294 with runners in scoring position and .413 (19 for 46) with two outs and runners in scoring position. That .413 ranked third in baseball, behind only Fernando Tatis and Freddie Freeman.
Last season, the Marlins batted .239 with runners in scoring position (24th in baseball) and .224 with runners in scoring position and two out (15th in baseball). So Garcia should help in both regards, if he can sustain what he achieved last season.
▪ The Marlins believe Garcia can play center field at times; he has played 90 games in his career there, including 44 in the COVID-shortened 2020 but just one last season. He committed only two errors in those 90 games in center.
He has played the vast majority of his career in right field (718), with 16 games in left field.
But Jesus Sanchez will get most of the work in center - unless the Marlins trade for a natural center fielder.
▪ One thing that helped Garcia last season: He lost 36 pounds and played at 235 pounds, 22 pounds less than he played in 2020.
▪ Brewers manager Craig Counsell said last summer that Garcia “has been very consistent this year and that’s important. That consistency has been really helpful. He’s having a really nice power season.”
▪ Fangraphs rated him the 21st-best player in this past free agent class.
Ben Clemons wrote on the website: “García was comfortably the best bat in the Brewers’ outfield this [past] year, continuing his five-year pattern of alternately mashing or disappointing. This year was the best-looking yet, though, which raises the prospect that García has leveled up as he oscillates around average.
“Always a free swinger with contact issues, García leaned into his identity by swinging more often at first pitches, particularly first-pitch fastballs. That helped him unlock a bit of power; his 13 first-pitch extra base hits were in the top 20 in baseball. He’s always had plus raw power, as evidenced by his 98th percentile max exit velocity; it’s a matter of getting to it in games, and getting aggressive seemed to help.”
Fangraphs’ Kevin Goldstein chimed in: “García is a nice two-to-four win corner outfielder who nonetheless can still drive a team crazy. As has been the case since he signed with the Detroit Tigers out of Venezuela in 2007, some of García’s tools rate with the best in baseball.
“His raw power approaches the rarified air of an 80 grade, and despite carrying somewhere in the neighborhood of 250 pounds on his bulky, 6-foot-4 frame, he’s a plus runner, and even better underway. He’s also a good defensive outfielder, and his arm is a weapon.
“There’s just that pesky hitting tool that keeps getting in the way. While García has tightened up his strike zone a bit over the last few seasons, he remains a streaky, overly-aggressive hitter who is prone to chasing and can get beat by good breaking balls pretty consistently. That, combined with his propensity to land on the injured list once or twice a season, has limited him to being a valuable player as opposed to a star.”
▪ His strikeout rates over the past four seasons are 26.5, 23.6, 23.7 and 23.5. New Marlins outfielder Jorge Soler strikes out 27 percent of his at-bats in his career. So expect more power, but also more strikeouts.
Here’s Part 1 of the series on Marlins newcomers, with 20 nuggets on Jorge Soler.
Here’s Part 2 on infielder Joey Wendle.
Here’s Part 3 on catcher Jacob Stallings.
This story was originally published April 8, 2022 at 9:30 AM.
