How the trade compensation received from Oklahoma City could help the Heat this summer
The Heat added the NBA equivalent of Splenda or Stevia just before the trade deadline, and that draft-pick sweetener could prove especially helpful this summer if the Heat tries to acquire a rotation piece or an All Star caliber player in the trade market.
Before the KZ Okpala deal last week, the Heat didn’t have the ability to trade any first-round pick before 2028.
But by altering terms on the No. 1 pick due Oklahoma City, Miami now can trade its first-round pick in 2022 or its first-round pick in 2023.
There’s also a scenario where the Heat could trade both the 2022 and 2023 picks - by selecting a player on another team’s behalf with its first-round pick in 2022, then dealing that player and the 2023 first-round pick in a transaction that would be finalized and announced in July.
Teams cannot trade first-round picks in consecutive years before those picks are made, but there’s nothing to prevent teams from trading two first-round picks in a row if the team making the trade drafts the player before dealing him.
Keep in mind that as a result of last year’s Victor Oladipo trade, the Heat’s first-round pick in 2022 will be the lowest (worst) of the first-round picks owned by Houston, Miami and Brooklyn. At this point, the Heat would get its own pick because it has a better record than the Rockets and Nets.
OKC now gets the Heat’s first-round pick in 2025 if it’s not in the lottery or 2026 otherwise.
It’s wise to let all of this play out because so much can happen between now and mid-June. But because sports fans are always wondering what’s next from a transaction standpoint, let’s consider this scenario:
If the Heat doesn’t advance to the Finals and decides to make a significant move this summer, here are a few scenarios where those first-round picks could be helpful:
▪ A trade for a skilled starter with just one year left on his deal:
Say, hypothetically, the Heat exits the playoffs in disappointing fashion, but Max Strus plays well and Miami opts to make Duncan Robinson available in trade discussions.
Because the Heat will face a sizable luxury tax charge beginning in 2023-24 if it extends Tyler Herro’s contact this summer (as expected) and keeps all of its other key players (Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and Robinson), a case could be made to trade Robinson’s deal for a much shorter contract if possible this summer, even though Miami values his shooting and the spacing he gives the team’s offense.
That would potentially save the Heat tens of millions of dollars down the road.
The challenge would be getting another team to go along with that. Robinson would need to play well in the months ahead for this type of deal to be realistic.
Robinson - in the first year of a five year, $90 million contract - theoretically could be traded this summer as part of package for, say, the final year of Harrison Barnes’ Sacramento deal or the final year of Christian Wood’s Houston deal.
With Robinson set to earn $16.8 million next season and Barnes set to earn $18.4 million, that could work within cap parameters. So would a deal for Wood, due $14.3 million next season.
But the Kings and Rockets presumably would want a lot more to even consider that type of deal, which is where the first-round picks come into play. And a source said Houston would not be interested in Robinson’s contract at this point.
Despite a report in Houston that the Heat had interest in Wood, a source disputed that. Keep in mind that he’s not a great defender and there would be position overlap with Adebayo.
Another hypothetical: If the Heat doesn’t make the Finals: Robinson and another piece (perhaps the player the Heat picks in the first round) and a 2023 draft pick could be offered to Detroit for Jerami Grant, a swing forward that the Heat likes.
He’s due $20.9 million next season in the final year of his contract. He’s averaging 19.1 points but his three-point shooting has dropped from 39.2 to 38.9 to 35 to 33.1 over the past four seasons.
If the Bulls flame out in the playoffs, Nik Vucevic would be another player worth monitoring with one year left on his deal (at $22 million). But Robinson and picks likely wouldn’t be enough.
Atlanta’s Danilo Gallinari - a player pursued by the Heat in the past - has only one year left at $21.4 million. But he’s owed only $5 million if he’s waived by June 29.
But it’s important to emphasize that Robinson would need to play well the rest of the season to entice any team to take on the last four years and $74 million of his contract, of which $64 million is guaranteed.
And the Heat would need to decide whether it’s worth including a first-round pick or two to dump Robinson’s deal and lessen its tax burden in the years ahead, while adding a good starter (but not an All Star) with one year left on a contract.
Seemingly unlikely - because of cap and other reasons - are summer deals for Toronto’s Pascal Siakam (due $35.4 million next and $37.9 million the following season) or Atlanta’s John Collins (due $23.5 million next season, then $25.3 million, $26.6 million and $26.6 million).
A deal involving Robinson and picks for New Orleans’ Brandon Ingram would be more difficult to achieve from a cap standpoint because Ingram is due $31.6 million, $33.8 million and $36 million over the next three seasons. And taking on Ingram - and giving Herro an extension - would push Miami well into the tax.
Keep in mind that Miami could include PJ Tucker (unlikely) or Victor Oladipo in sign-and-trades this offseason if they’re agreeable to it.
Tucker has a $7.3 million player option this summer. He could opt out and seek the Heat’s full $10.3 million mid-level exception.
▪ A trade for a disgruntled superstar:
This would be the sexiest scenario but would involve dealing Herro and likely Kyle Lowry, which seems difficult to envision now but certainly cannot be ruled out.
If Portland’s Damian Lillard or Utah’s Donovan Mitchell asks for a trade - and neither has given any indication that he plans to ask to be moved - any Heat offer likely would need to include Herro, Robinson and the 2022 and 2023 picks, with Miami needing to exercise that pick on the other team’s behalf in 2022.
And Lowry likely would need to be included in a proposal for either player, not only to facilitate a deal from a cap standpoint but to make Miami’s offer more competitive.
Mitchell, 25, is due $30.3 million next season, with salaries of $32.6 million, $34.8 million and a $37.1 million player option the following season.
Longtime NBA writer Howard Beck noted on a recent podcast that tensions exist in the Jazz locker room that “might be a little worse than we’ve been led to believe.” Beck said rumors of Mitchell wanting out will likely resurface this summer, though there is nothing to suggest he has asked for a trade.
Lillard, 31, is due $42.5 million, $45.6 million and then a player option for $48.8 million and reportedly wants an extension.
Mitchell would be a more sensible target than Lillard if either becomes available, and that’s a big if.
At Lillard’s age and with his injury issues this season, Herro and Lowry and Robinson and multiple first-round picks would be difficult to justify.
Boston has said it has no intention of trading Jaylen Brown, who’s due $28.7 million next season and $30.7 million the following season. But that’s worth monitoring.
But unless it’s for Mitchell or possibly Lillard, the idea of Lowry being moved would seem highly unlikely.
▪ A trade for a top free agent:
At this point, the odds are against Miami becoming involved for Washington’s Bradley Beal and Chicago’s Zach LaVine, who both can be unrestricted free agents this summer.
But it can by no means be ruled out, if the Heat disappoints in the playoffs and if Beal puts Miami on a short list of teams. Beal has expressed his admiration for the Heat in the past.
Either deal would require Herro, Robinson, the first-round picks and another piece from a cap facilitating standpoint.
And in this scenario, Miami likely could offer only the first-round picks in 2023 and 2028 – not 2022 and 2023 - because the Heat won’t be in position to draft a player for Chicago or Washington in late June without being legally able to talk to Beal or LaVine before July 1.
The best scenario for the Heat? Miami wins the title - or at least makes the Finals for the second time in three years - and uses the two No. 1 picks on cheap labor to augment a championship caliber roster.
But if Miami enters the summer disappointed about its playoff performance and eager to make changes, those picks suddenly become valuable chips.
If you’re a Herald reader and live in a home off Sterling, Sheraton or Griffin in Broward County, please email me at bjackson@miamiherald.com
This story was originally published February 14, 2022 at 4:31 PM.
