Two veteran NBA scouts assess Miami Heat’s personnel and chances in Eastern Conference
For NBA perspective on the Heat’s personnel and its playoff chances, we solicited input from veteran scouts from each conference.
Their feedback, offered on condition of anonymity because their teams don’t permit them to speak publicly:
▪ On the Heat’s title chances:
Eastern scout: “I would put Miami one, Philadelphia two, Brooklyn three and Milwaukee four. Miami has got everything – depth, shooting, defense, a very good point guard who’s won, a great coach, guys that can get their own shot.
“Philadelphia’s starting unit [Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green or Matisse Thybulle] is very, very good. But I can’t pick Philadelphia or Brooklyn because there are so many question marks with chemistry. It’s not like they can have another training camp. And I’m not convinced Milwaukee can do it again; they haven’t [fully] replaced P.J. Tucker.”
Western scout: “I don’t see Brooklyn or Philly winning four games in a series against Miami or Milwaukee. With Philly, who is going to guard Kyle [Lowry] and Jimmy [Butler]? Harden you have to hide on the defensive end. You can put Thybulle on one of the Miami’s guys. But if you have Tobias on Jimmy and Thybulle on a shooter, who is stopping Kyle? Philadelphia sacrificed depth to get Harden. That’s going to hurt them.
“With Brooklyn, you can do single coverage with Kyle on Kyrie [Irving] and Jimmy on [Kevin] Durant. I know they have Patty Mills and [Seth] Curry, but you can double Durant and scheme to where [Ben] Simmons has to shoot. Miami and Milwaukee have enough defenders for those teams, especially if [Victor] Oladipo comes back to guard people. Miami has so many dudes who understand what it takes to win.”
▪ Western scout on Lowry: “One of smartest players I’ve been around. He knows he has to be the consummate point guard and defend. He and Jimmy don’t need to score a lot to impact the game. And whether they’re scoring or not, their defense doesn’t drop off. Kyle can get you 10 rebounds some nights; aside from [Russell] Westbrook, who else does that from the point guard position? Kyle has turned into an incredible leader.”
▪ Eastern scout on Tyler Herro: “He got screwed out of the All-Star Game. He should have been there. He’s the league’s best sixth man this year, an All Star level player. The fact he can now create his own shot and make it has taken him to a whole other level. Lou Williams won the sixth man award [three times], and Herro is better than Lou Williams.”
The scout said: “I would not give up Herro [in a package] for [Bradley] Beal this summer. The talent differential is not big enough to do that now. And Beal struggled this year” on threes, shooting 30 percent.
▪ Western scout on Tucker: “If Udonis Haslem had a [mirror image] son, P.J. Tucker would be it. The defense is a constant. I’m not surprised about the [league-high] three-point shooting. He lost weight, looks like he’s in great shape. He’s a culture guy that fits. If Jimmy or Kyle does crazy stuff, he has enough street cred to check them. P.J. is awesome.”
Eastern scout on Tucker: “If he were on, say, Sacramento, his intangibles wouldn’t be as obvious. But on a team where there’s that identity with Butler, Lowry, Bam, [Caleb] Martin, there is a synergistic effect. He just adds to their overall team toughness.”
▪ Eastern scout on Max Strus and Duncan Robinson: “To me, Strus is the better athlete, has the higher ceiling. I thought they could move Robinson before the deadline because of Strus’ evolution.”
Western scout, on Robinson: “I know the three-point shooting is down, but you can’t go into a game and say, ‘leave him wide open.’ You need to account for him, and that has an impact. If he’s shooting well, he’s going to get minutes. And he and Strus provide space for Jimmy and Kyle. You don’t have to run much for [Strus and Robinson]. They get a lot of shots off double-teams and dribble handoffs.”
▪ Western scout on Adebayo: “I love his game. He’s a throwback. There aren’t a lot of people his size who are that rugged, can defend multiple positions who can play with or without the ball, pass that well with a crazy work ethic.”
▪ Western scout on the Heat’s development program: “All their [top] guys on their summer league team, all have turned into something that has become an asset. I like Caleb Martin; versatile, can defend multiple positions, can shoot. Really athletic, fearless, plays hard all the time. First to the floor. They identify these guys and they’re able to make them buy into this whole idea of working to be a better version of yourself.”
▪ Western scout, on whether Omer Yurtseven can be an eventual starting NBA center: “I think he has the range. It’s not the offensive end of the floor that’s the question. It’s the defensive end of the floor. He can guard fives [centers] and rebound but he’s going to have to be able to switch, guard and contain. If he develops into someone who can do that reliably, he could become an [NBA] starter eventually.”
▪ Eastern scout on Gabe Vincent: “Not only has his shooting gotten better, but I think his playmaking has gotten better.”
▪ Western scout, on Oladipo: “If he comes back as any semblance of who he was, they are going to be scary. Forget about the offensive end. When he decided to lock up defensively in Houston last year, he still can do that. And you only need him to do it for a short amount of time because of their depth.”
In 2-on-2 workouts witnessed after practice and before games, Oladipo has shown explosion and good lateral movement. The three-pointer has been hit and miss, depending on the day.
This story was originally published February 22, 2022 at 4:53 PM.
