Exploring how Dolphins could build team around Tua or Watson: the skinny on each path
If the Dolphins trade for Houston’s Deshaun Watson this spring, they won’t instantly have the salary cap riches that would be afforded them if they stick with Tua Tagovailoa.
But they could fairly easily carve out significant space to augment a team around Watson.
Nobody would be surprised if the Dolphins pursue a trade for Watson, barring a grand jury recommending criminal charges against him over sexual assault allegations. The grand jury reportedly could disclose its findings later this month.
But another team could try to outbid Miami; one league source said not to discount New Orleans, with Carolina also a real option, and Cleveland, Denver and Washington among other teams needing an upgrade at the position.
Watson, who has a no-trade clause, has consistently told associates that he wants to play for the Dolphins.
Acquiring a different quarterback - perhaps Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson - cannot be ruled out, but Watson at this point is the only one who has been made available by his team in trade talks.
A look at these two potential offseason avenues for Miami, a future with Watson and one with Tagovailoa:
▪ Avenue One: Stick with Tagovailoa. In that scenario, the Dolphins will have at least $74 million in 2022 cap space (per overthecap.com), with the potential to clear out significantly more.
Miami also would be able to keep its best 2022 draft assets: a first-round pick acquired from San Francisco, its own second-round pick, and a third-round pick acquired from the 49ers. (The Dolphins’ first-round pick belongs to the Eagles and their third-round choice belongs to the Giants.)
▪ Avenue Two: Trade for Watson. In that scenario, Watson’s $35 million Dolphins cap hit in 2022 would reduce Miami’s cap space to $39 million.
In a trade for Watson, the Dolphins also likely would lose their top 2022 draft assets: the first-round pick acquired from San Francisco and their second- or third-round pick, in addition to likely losing two first-round picks in the 2023 draft.
How could the Dolphins improve with each of these two options? Exploring:
▪ Avenue One: By sticking with Tagovailoa, the Dolphins would have all the resources necessary to fill their needs between free agency and the draft. They would have $74 million in 2022 cap space and could carve out $105 million.
They would have the cap space to re-sign top free agent Emmanuel Ogbah; acquire a pricey left tackle in free agency (Terron Armstead, Trent Brown, Cam Robinson); a starting receiver; a starting inside linebacker and perhaps a center to upgrade over Michael Deiter.
They also would be able to keep impending free agent tight end Mike Gesicki if they choose or sign a capable replacement.
They also would need to save some cap space to sign Jacoby Brissett or another backup quarterback; Durham Smythe or another blocking tight end; Michael Palardy or another punter; receiver Mack Hollins and key restricted free agent Nik Needham, plus cheap depth at safety and the defensive front seven.
Then they could use their first, second and third round picks on needs not filled in free agency – likely running back, perhaps inside linebacker, center and/or receiver.
Here’s one potential path: Sign Ogbah, Gesicki, and Armstead (who would be very expensive) and a skilled inside linebacker such as New England’s Ja’whuan Bentley or Dont’a Hightower or Cleveland’s Anthony Walker, with the remaining space going toward signing a backup QB, Smythe or a blocking tight end; Hollins; Needham; a punter, and cheap depth at linebacker and safety.
Then use the first three draft picks on a receiver (from another deep class), a running back (Kenneth Walker or Iowa State’s Breece Hall in the second round would be very appealing if available) and a center to challenge Deiter.
If the Dolphins make good decisions in the draft and free agency, and open their wallets in free agency more than they did last March, there’s no reason the Dolphins can’t build an 11-win team around Tagovailoa.
The resources are there.
▪ Avenue Two: If the Dolphins decide that they want a sure-fire top 10 quarterback in Watson - and sacrifice their best draft assets and half their cap space in the process - then they will need to be resourceful building around him.
They would have $39 million in 2022 cap space if they acquire Watson before free agency, and likely would lose their first- and either their second- or third-round picks in a trade with Houston.
Here’s one problem: A team acquiring Watson ideally would need to know whether it will have the cap space to be aggressive in free agency beginning in mid-March. But Houston conceivably could keep Watson until draft week in late April, waiting for the best offer.
So if the Dolphins, hypothetically, used most of their cap space on free agents - and are left with, say $15 million in space before Watson is traded anywhere - they suddenly would need to create another $45 million in cap space to fit in Watson and have enough left over to fill out the roster.
So in a perfect world, the team trading for Watson would do it before free agency.
If the Dolphins were that team, that $39 million in space would go quickly simply by re-signing Ogbah and adding a starting left tackle, as well as signing Needham, a much cheaper tight end to replace Gesicki and veteran depth at multiple positions.
Accomplishing all of that - as well as finding another receiver, inside linebacker and pretty good running back- would be impossible with that amount of cap space.
But there are two realistic options to create more cap space and flexibility:
1. Restructuring Watson’s contract. By converting $16 million of Watson’s $35 million 2022 base salary into a signing bonus, that $16 million would be prorated for cap purposes ($4 million cap hit per year) over the final four years of his deal, which runs through 2025. So instantly, Miami’s 2022 cap space would increase from $39 million to $51 million.
2. Cutting several players. The Dolphins can save nearly $16 million in cap space by releasing Cethan Carter ($2.5 million cap savings), Allen Hurns ($3.2 million cap savings), Clayton Fejedelem ($2.8 million), Jesse Davis ($3.6 million) Greg Little ($1.6 million) and Adam Shaheen ($1.9 million).
So releasing those six players - combined with restructuring Watson’s contract - would instantly increase Miami’s cap space from $39 million to $67 million.
That would be enough to re-sign Ogbah and perhaps Gesicki, sign a pricey left tackle and a starting receiver and inside linebacker and perhaps a center.
The problem, of course, is that the Dolphins wouldn’t be able to count on filling more than one immediate need in the draft if they deal their first- and second- or third-round picks.
So the Dolphins would need to decide whether to re-sign Duke Johnson and Phillip Lindsay and go into the draft with those two and Myles Gaskin and hope to find another back with the second-day pick that is not traded to Houston or with a pick in the mid rounds, as opposed to trying to sign James Conner or Leonard Fournette in free agency.
And remember, cap space goes quickly. But Miami would need to allocate less than $6 million to sign a draft class and practice squad if they trade their top two picks.
There would be additional cap savings if the Dolphins cut several players that they likely would be better off keeping, including DeVante Parker ($6.2 million savings), Adam Butler ($3.75 million savings) and Eric Rowe ($4.6 million savings).
But if all three were cut (along with the aforementioned players) and if Watson restructured, the Dolphins could carve out $82 million in space - enough to build a good team around Watson.
Incidentally, the Dolphins might not need to sign a backup quarterback in this Watson scenario because a strong case could be made for keeping Tagovailoa for 2022 because: 1) the Dolphins will need a starter if Watson is suspended by the NFL for a portion of the season and 2) trading Tagovailoa next spring would result in a higher 2022 cap hit for Miami ($9.8 million) than keeping him ($8.3 million).
NEWS NOTE
No Dolphins had an injury designation on the final injury report. Everybody on the 53-man roster is available to play. Cornerback Noah Igbinoghene and safety Sheldrick Redwine are eligible to come off the COVID list.
The Patriots list nine players as questionable: wide receiver Jakobi Meyers, center David Andrews, running back Damien Harris, linebacker Dont’a Hightower, defensive back Cody Davis, safety Adrian Phillips, defensive lineman Christian Barmore, guard Isaiah Wynn and kicker Nick Folk. All nine were limited participants in practice Friday.
Safety Kyle Dugger is out.
This story was originally published January 7, 2022 at 4:21 PM.
