Examining Dolphins’ playoff scenarios, the tiebreakers and what needs to happen to get in
In the convoluted quest to determine the Dolphins’ playoff chances, start with this:
1. The Dolphins likely need to win their three remaining games to make the postseason.
2. Dolphins fans should root for the teams that beat the Dolphins head-to-head to win their divisions over teams that didn’t. That means root for Buffalo and Indianapolis against other AFC playoff contenders.
But root against New England and Baltimore, because the Dolphins would win a two-team tiebreaker against the Ravens and would win a two-team tiebreaker against New England if the Dolphins win their final three.
Also, root against Tennessee, partly because it would help Miami if the Colts win the AFC South.
After the Raiders’ win against the Cleveland Browns on Monday, the Dolphins (7-7) stand 11th in the AFC, with the top seven making the playoffs.
Cincinnati, Indianapolis, the Chargers and Buffalo are in the fourth through seventh spots, all with 8-6 records.
Of the teams on the outside looking in, Baltimore is eighth at 8-6, Pittsburgh is ninth at 7-6-1, the Raiders are 10th at 7-7, the Dolphins 11th at 7-7, Cleveland 12th at 7-7 and Denver 13th at 7-7.
Some things to keep in mind about the Dolphins and their playoff chances:
▪ According to FiveThirtyEight, the Dolphins (7-7) have a 71 percent chance to be one of the AFC’s seven playoff qualifiers if they close the season with wins at New Orleans (7-7), at Tennessee (9-5) and home against New England (9-5).
If the Dolphins lose one of those three games, their chances to make the postseason drop to 7 to 11 percent, depending on which of the games Miami loses. Even if Miami wins the next two, a loss to the Patriots would drop Miami’s postseason chances to 7 percent.
▪ The simplest way for the Dolphins to make the postseason: Win the next three and hope Buffalo wins at New England on Sunday. If those four things happen, Miami would have a 99 percent chance of making the postseason.
▪ If the Dolphins win out and New England beats Buffalo, Miami’s playoff odds then drop to 54 percent.
In that scenario, the Dolphins would need considerable help to make the playoffs.
For example, in the scenario of New England beating Buffalo, the Dolphins would have a 91 to 96 percent chance to make the playoffs if they win out and if Cincinnati loses two of three and the Chargers lose two of three, depending on which two games those teams lost.
The Bengals have a difficult remaining schedule: home to Baltimore and Kansas City and at Cleveland.
But the Chargers have a fairly easy schedule: at Houston, home against Denver and at Las Vegas.
▪ What if the Bengals lose two of three and the Chargers win two of three in that scenario of New England beating Buffalo?
Then Miami’s chances would be 45 percent. They would jump very slightly if the Ravens lose twice.
The Dolphins’ odds would jump to more than 90 percent if they win out, the Bengals and Ravens lose twice, the Patriots beat Buffalo and the Titans lose to the 49ers, Miami and at Houston.
But the Dolphins’ chances slip below 40 percent if the Titans win at Houston in that precise scenario.
Even if Dolphins win out and the Bengals and Ravens and Browns lose twice each, Miami’s playoff chances would still only be in the 60 percent range if New England beats Buffalo on Sunday.
The Chargers’ fairly easy remaining schedule hurts the Dolphins. So does the fact that Tennessee has a poor final opponent in Houston.
▪ The Dolphins would win a tiebreaker against Baltimore because of Miami’s win head to head and would lose a tiebreaker against Las Vegas and Indianapolis because of losses head to head.
If the Dolphins and Broncos finish tied, Miami would win a tiebreaker because of a superior conference record.
The Dolphins would win the tiebreaker against Tennessee by beating the Titans on Jan. 2.
If the Dolphins and Bengals finish tied, Cincinnati wins the tiebreaker because of a superior conference record.
If the Dolphins win out and finish tied with the Chargers, the two teams would have the same conference record and the NFL would need to use the third tiebreaker (best won-loss percentage in common games). Miami would win that two-team tiebreaker.
If the Dolphins and Browns finish tied at 10-7, Miami would win a tiebreaker.
▪ Beating out Buffalo for a playoff berth isn’t realistic, because the Dolphins would need to win three and the Bills would need to lose two of three. Besides their game at New England, Buffalo has home games against Atlanta and the Jets.
▪ The Dolphins - if they win out - need only one Baltimore loss to surpass Baltimore in the standings.
The Ravens close at Cincinnati and home to the Rams and Pittsburgh. But it would help Miami if the Ravens beat the Bengals and possibly the Steelers and lose to the Rams.
▪ Because the Colts are one game ahead of the Dolphins and own the tiebreaker, Miami’s chances of surpassing Indianapolis aren’t very good.
The Dolphins would need to win out and the Colts would need to lose two of three. Indianapolis plays at Arizona on Christmas night, then plays host to Las Vegas and closes at Jacksonville.
The Titans, who would lose a tiebreaker to Miami with a loss to the Dolphins, close at home against San Francisco and Miami and at Houston. Tennessee (9-5) would finish behind the Dolphins if they lose to Miami and lose one other game (to the 49ers or Texans) and Miami wins out.
▪ New England plays host to Buffalo and Jacksonville and then closes at Miami. If the Patriots lose to the Bills and the Dolphins win out, Miami would finish ahead of the Patriots and the Dolphins would very likely make the playoffs, per fivethirtyeight.com.
But if the Patriots beat Buffalo, Miami would need to win out and New England would need to lose to the Jaguars for the Dolphins to finish ahead of the Patriots. And even in that scenario, Miami’s playoff chances would be only 54 percent, as noted above.
▪ There’s no likely course for Miami to win the AFC East. One scenario would be Buffalo beating New England, Miami winning out and the Bills losing to Atlanta and the Jets – an improbable scenario.
Another would be New England beating Buffalo, Miami winning out, the Bills losing to the Falcons or Jets and the Patriots losing to the Jaguars and Dolphins - also unlikely.
This story was originally published December 20, 2021 at 8:27 PM.
