Here’s how the Miami Dolphins can make the playoffs if they win only one of next two
The math, in some ways, couldn’t be simpler: Win two games and the Dolphins will make the playoffs, end the season on a nine-game win streak and complete one of the most astounding regular-season transformations in NFL history.
Miami’s 20-3 win at New Orleans on Monday night left the Dolphins in the AFC’s seventh and final playoff spot and made them the only team in NFL history to lose seven in a row and win seven in a row in the same season.
But what if the Dolphins (8-7) lose at Tennessee and then win the finale at home against New England? Or vice versa?
Then the Dolphins’ path to postseason narrows considerably, requiring seven other results to go their way to qualify for their first postseason appearance since 2016.
There are very few avenues for Miami to make the playoffs in this one-loss scenario, but one scenario would not require a single monumental upset.
Here’s one path where the Dolphins could lose one of their remaining two games (but not both) and still make the playoffs:
▪ The Indianapolis Colts beat visiting Las Vegas on Sunday.
▪ Cincinnati loses at home to Kansas City on Sunday but then wins at Cleveland.
▪ Baltimore loses at home to Pittsburgh in its season finale. (The Ravens’ result at home against the Rams on Sunday wouldn’t matter in this particular scenario.)
▪ The Chargers win at home against Denver on Sunday but then lose at Las Vegas.
▪ Cleveland wins at Pittsburgh on Sunday but then loses at home to Cincinnati.
This scenario — with Miami winning either of its final two games but not both — would result in Miami finishing 9-8 and claiming the last playoff spot.
That would be a four-team tie among Baltimore, the Chargers and Las Vegas if the Ravens beat the Rams in this scenario, with Miami winning that tiebreaker and going to the playoffs.
It would be a three-team tie with the Chargers and Raiders if the Ravens lose to the Rams in this scenario, with Miami still advancing to postseason.
No other results would affect Miami’s chances in this scenario.
Here’s another path that would get the Dolphins in the playoffs with a loss at Tennessee but a win against New England. But this path would require at least two big upsets.
▪ Tennessee loses at Houston in their season finale.
▪ The Patriots lose at home to Jacksonville this week.
▪ Cincinnati beats Kansas City but loses to Cleveland.
▪ Baltimore loses to the Rams but beats Pittsburgh.
▪ The Chargers lose to Denver and Las Vegas.
That path would get the Dolphins in the playoffs if they lose Sunday at the Titans but then beat New England. But Miami would not make the playoffs in this scenario if they beat Tennessee and lose to New England.
However the Dolphins make it, they will need to ride a defense that has held four consecutive opponents below 250 yards; New Orleans mustered just 164 on Monday.
The Dolphins have limited opponents to just 11.7 points per game during this win streak while producing 33 sacks, which has catapulted them to the league lead in that category with 45.
Nevertheless, the Dolphins continue to elicit skepticism, partly because of the caliber of teams they have beaten in this winning streak (Baltimore is the only one with a winning record) and partly because of an offense that ranks 24th in yardage and 21st in points (at 20.3 per game).
On ESPN’s “Get Up” on Tuesday, three analysts all identified the Dolphins as pretenders more than contenders.
“They’re pretenders,” ESPN analyst and former NFL center Jeff Saturday said. “When you look at this team, I get their defense has played absolutely lights out. They’ve done a fantastic job. They’ve kept their team in it. But look at who they’ve beaten. They played the Jets twice, Giants once. That’s not the best the NFL has to offer.
“That offensive line does not give me the warm and fuzzies to protect Tua [Tagovailoa]. When you get to playoff football, this thing could get ugly for them. It might even get ugly with the Titans before the playoffs.”
Former NFL defensive back and Players Union president Domonique Foxworth noted that “the one team they beat that any of us think was any good at the time is the Ravens on a short week on a Thursday night, and the Ravens have been playing above their heads.
“It’s still impressive to pull off that many wins in a row without something going wrong. They’re playing against NFL teams. They still will need Tua to grow if they expect to do anything in the postseason.”
And ESPN’s Marcus Spears said Miami is a pretender because of an offensive line that yielded three sacks Monday and generated few holes for a running game that averaged 2.9 yards per carry.
“You can’t expect an offensive line like that in the playoffs to get you a win,” Spears said. “When you look at Miami and Tua, it still feels to me they’re in a growing phase. Offensively, I don’t think it’s enough to fear them in the playoffs.”
ESPN’s Louis Riddick offered a somewhat more optimistic take after calling Monday’s game.
“I believe defensively they are [a playoff team], but they have to play flawless on the defensive side to help out an offense that’s very sporadic in terms of its ability to make explosive plays,” Riddick said.
“They will have two challenges that are similar in New England and Tennessee. Both teams will pound you with the football and then try to hit you over the top with play action. I think they can handle those kinds of things but both teams play knockout type defense.”
The Dolphins-at-Titans game will remain at 1 p.m. Sunday on CBS, televised to a regional audience.
The Patriots-at-Dolphins finale is a possibility to be flexed to either the Sunday night NBC game or two new Saturday ESPN slots, one in the late afternoon and one in the evening. Those decisions will be made after next weekend.
This story was originally published December 28, 2021 at 11:31 AM.
