The final verdict on Dolphins’ poor 2021 free agency foray. And injury, COVID updates
Even after mostly squandering 2021 free agency, the Dolphins have somehow been able to overcome it and sit on the fringes of playoff contention, just a win against the lowly Jets from moving to 7-7.
In fact, if they had gotten lucky with Will Fuller’s health, succeeded in convincing center David Andrews to sign, retained Ereck Flowers and added James Conner as their featured running back, they might already be at seven or eight wins.
In a December tradition, we explore how Miami’s free agent moves and veteran transactions look many months later, while keeping in mind that the Dolphins had limited cap space last March and would have needed to make several more moves (including restructuring cornerback Byron Jones’ contract) to create cap space to sign a better running back or linebacker:
▪ Running back: Signing Malcolm Brown and fashioning him as the Dolphins’ power back was ill-advised, because he has always been an NFL backup, and his short-yardage conversion numbers were mediocre for the Rams.
So it’s no surprise that his short-yardage numbers for Miami are subpar: He has converted only 4 of 11 opportunities when needing three yards or less for a first down, with a 2.1 yards-per-carry average on those attempts.
The good news is that he was cheap: one year, $1.75 million. And his pass protection has been very good.
The bad news is that he has missed six games with a quadriceps injury, and his contributions have been pedestrian (125 yards rushing, 3.8 per carry).
In retrospect, the Dolphins should have signed a different free agent — Conner or Jamaal Williams. Williams left Green Bay for a two-year deal with Detroit (worth up to $7.5 million) and he has 459 yards rushing on 4.2 per carry.
Conner left Pittsburgh for Arizona on a one-year, $1.75 million deal and has 16 touchdowns, including 14 rushing, along with 661 yards rushing (3.7 per carry) and 303 yards receiving (on 10.4 per catch).
He’s 32 for 48 this season in converting first downs on short-yardage runs, compared with 4 for 11 for Brown. In retrospect, Conner was the player who the Dolphins should have signed.
Leonard Fournette (778 yards rushing on 4.5 per carry) obviously would have helped, but he preferred to stay in Tampa, which gave him a one-year, $3.5 million deal.
Another March 2021 free agent — Chris Carson (232 yards rushing, 4.3 per carry) — has been limited to four games because of injury and would have been pricier: Seattle gave him two years and $10.4 million.
The Dolphins were waiting to see if they would draft a running back in the first three rounds (they didn’t) and didn’t want to spend on Carson even though they like his skill set.
Aaron Jones (four year, $48 million) re-signed with Green Bay before free agency began.
▪ Offensive line: There was never serious thought to pursuing any above-average starters except Andrews, the center who took slightly less money to stay in New England than join the Dolphins.
The Andrews pursuit was smart in retrospect; Pro Football Focus ranks him sixth among 38 centers. He would have been Miami’s best free agent pickup if he had accepted the Dolphins’ offer.
Three cheap veterans signed by Miami were all cut: Matt Skura (beaten out by Michael Deiter but has started 10 games for the Giants this season), Jermaine Eluemunor (cut, signed with Raiders and is 58th among 80 guards in PFF’s 2021 ratings) and D.J. Fluker (injured his knee in training camp and is now unemployed).
With the Dolphins committed to filling both tackle and guard spots with a combination of young players and Jesse Davis this season, Miami’s only other significant offensive line move in the offseason was paying Ereck Flowers to go away (to Washington) for a seventh-round pick.
The Dolphins — who are carrying an $8 million cap hit on Flowers this season — should have kept him. PFF ranks him 15th among all 80 guards; he has allowed three sacks.
So the offseason offensive line machinations all backfired.
▪ Wide receiver: I don’t blame the Dolphins for the Fuller debacle, because he was coming off a season when he stayed healthy.
Fuller missed 22 regular-season games in his first four NFL seasons and had never made it through an entire season healthy before last season, when he missed five games due to an NFL suspension but none due to injury. So the fact he has played just 65 snaps in 2021 has been a case of bad luck.
So with the benefit of hindsight, who should the Dolphins have signed instead (based on 2021 production)?
Perhaps Arizona’s A.J. Green (one-year, $8 million and 42 catches and 654 yards); or New England’s two additions — Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne.
Agholor — who got two years, $26 million — has 32 catches for 463 yards and three touchdowns. Bourne — who got three years and $22.5 million — has 42 catches for 623 yards and five touchdowns.
Among other free agent receiver options from this past March, Marvin Jones (two years, $12.5 million from Rams) has been solid (54 catches, 610 yards).
Kenny Golladay (four years, $72 million with Giants) wouldn’t have been worth the cap hit or the cash, even though Miami had some interest. He has 28 catches for just 424 yards and no touchdowns.
Others from the 2021 free agent receiver class who have been decent but not extraordinary include the Jets’ Keelan Cole (one year, $5.5 million and 20 catches and 326 yards); the Jets’ Corey Davis (three years, $37.5 million and 34 catches and 492 yards and 4 TDs) and Sammy Watkins (one year, $6 million with Baltimore: 27 for 394).
JuJu Smith-Schuster (one-year, $8 million) had only 15 catches for Pittsburgh before a season-ending shoulder injury. T.Y. Hilton (one year, $8 million from Colts) has missed significant time with injuries.
Nobody from that 2021 wide receiver free agent class has been incredible, to the point where the Dolphins should be blasted, particularly since Fuller’s lack of contributions have been injury related.
And at least Fuller is coming off Miami’s books in a couple of months. What’s unfortunate is that $11 million of cap space was tied up for essentially nothing so far this season.
▪ Defensive line: The Dolphins’ only significant addition was Adam Butler, who the team signed immediately after failing to come to terms with his former Patriots teammate Lawrence Guy.
Guy has 44 tackles in 13 games, all starts, for New England.
Butler has 16 tackles in 13 games, including one start.
Though Butler has only one sack after producing 15 in four years for New England, Dolphins defensive line coach Austin Clark said this week that Butler “has been great” in many ways that aren’t necessarily quantified with stats.
And he’s on a reasonable deal (two years, $9.5 million with nothing guaranteed after 2021).
PFF ranks Butler 69th among 105 interior defenders; teammates Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler are ranked sixth and seventh.
Davon Godchaux — who signed with New England after the Dolphins bypassed re-signing him last spring — is 50th and Guy is 64th.
▪ Linebacker: The Dolphins spent less than $3.5 million combined for three free agent signings last spring: 2020 Dolphin Elandon Roberts (who has started 11 games at inside linebacker and has 58 tackles) and backups Duke Riley and Brennan Scarlett.
The Dolphins have received solid contributions from all three, considering the modest financial allocations.
The question is whether the Dolphins should have cut Kyle Van Noy or instead tried to restructure his contract. His loss hurt in the first half of the season.
Miami is carrying a $4.1 million cap hit on Van Noy, who has been productive for New England (five starts, 12 games, 42 tackles, four sacks, two forced fumbles, an interception).
Miami got nothing this year from either Shaq Lawson (signed to a three-year, $30 million deal in March 2020) or Benardrick McKinney (acquired in February for Lawson and then cut in August).
Lawson has been adequately replaced by Phillips and Andrew Van Ginkel, whose role has expanded.
Whether McKinney would have been better than Roberts or Riley early in the season is dubious; he has appeared in seven games for the Giants, with two starts, and has 25 tackles.
▪ Defensive backfield: Justin Coleman was brought in to challenge Nik Needham, but Needham beat him out in September and has played more defensive snaps than Coleman (467 to 333.)
The good news is Coleman is cheap (one year, $2.75 million) and has played very well the past five games (only six completions in 14 throws against for 48 yards, one interception).
▪ Punter: The Dolphins failed to reach a new deal with Matt Haack and signed Michael Palardy, who ranks 23rd in punt average and 20th in net average — very comparable to what Haack is doing for Buffalo.
Palardy was AFC Special Teams Player of the Week last week.
The best news about Miami’s unforgettable foray into 2021 free agency? Not a single one is owed any guaranteed money after this season.
What’s clear is this: The Dolphins — with a league-high $78 million in 2022 cap space — must handle free agency far better next spring than they did the past two offseasons.
INJURY UPDATE
Tight end Adam Shaheen (knee), safety Clayton Fejedelem (ankle) and guard Austin Jackson (illness) were all listed as questionable for Sunday’s 1 p.m. game against the Jets.
Shaheen and Fejedelem were limited in Friday’s practice; Jackson was well enough to practice fully.
Safety Brandon Jones, who missed the past two games with elbow and ankle injuries, is no longer on the injury report and will play Sunday.
Also, safety Jevon Holland, receiver Jaylen Waddle, running back Phillip Lindsay and practice squad running back Gerrid Doaks remained on the COVID-19 list as of 4 p.m. Friday and need get a negative test and a rapid negative test by 3:59 p.m. Saturday -- and have no symptoms by that point -- to be eligible to play Sunday against the Jets.
Here’s my Friday piece with news from Brian Flores’ Friday news conference.
This story was originally published December 17, 2021 at 4:10 PM.
