How Dolphins’ Senior Bowl tailback decisions fared. And why staff doesn’t only blame line
As if the Dolphins’ run blocking isn’t a big enough problem, the Dolphins now own this distinction, too:
They have the running backs who produce among the fewest yards after contact, on average, in the NFL.
Among backs with at least 50 carries, Myles Gaskin (who has 100 carries), is worst in yards after contact at 2.07 per rush.
Salvon Ahmed is just behind him at 2.05.
The dreadful blocking plays a role in that, because second and third defenders are sometimes positioned to tackle Gaskin and Ahmed after a first defender makes contact with them.
Which got me to thinking...
The Dolphins, knowing they needed a running back, had the fortune of spending far more time than other teams could with five prospects from the 2021 Draft.
With an opportunity to coach the national team in this past January’s Senior Bowl, Brian Flores, running backs coach Eric Studesville and the rest of the staff got an up-close look at Alabama’s Najee Harris, Ohio State’s Trey Sermon, Virginia Tech’s Rhamondre Stevenson, North Carolina’s Michael Carter and Virginia Tech’s Khalil Herbert.
Harris and Sermon didn’t practice or play in the game because of injuries.
Fast forward 11 months. The Dolphins have the league’s worst rushing attack — lowest in rushing yards and second-worst in yards per carry (3.4).
Gaskin is averaging 3.4, down from 4.1 a year ago. Ahmed is averaging 2.7 per carry.
Meanwhile, of those five running backs that were coached by the Dolphins at the Senior Bowl, three of them (Sermon, Stevenson, Herbert) rank in the top 50 in the league (among 127 backs) in average yards after contact.
On Sunday, the Dolphins will see one of those five backs — Carter, who is the Jets’ leading rusher.
So how are the five backs doing that the Dolphins spent a week with, praised publicly and then didn’t draft?
A quick look:
▪ Harris: After the Dolphins selected Jaelan Phillips at 18, Pittsburgh pounced on Harris at 24.
Harris has 646 yards rushing and four touchdowns but is averaging just 3.7 per carry.
He has been very effective as a receiver, with 44 catches for 317 yards and a 7.2 average.
Did the Dolphins miss out on a special player? I’m not sure that they did.
Harris is a good player and would have helped, but drafting Phillips in that spot — should he continue to improve — can be justified.
▪ Carter: Like Harris, his overall per carry average isn’t impressive (3.6). Like Harris, he has four rushing touchdowns.
And like Harris, he’s a threat as a receiver (31 catches, 306 yards, 9.9 average).
The Jets took him 107th — well after Miami selected Hunter Long 81st.
Long, who was drafted despite Miami’s depth at tight end, has played only 29 offensive snaps.
Not drafting Carter at 81 — or not trading up for him — is not a decision that is worthy of second guessing in my view, because the production as runner — while good — isn’t great. His production as a receiver out the backfield is excellent, however.
If you want to second guess the Dolphins for not taking a North Carolina running back, you can question allowing Denver to jump them for Javonte Williams, whose 5.0 average per rush is 10th in the league.
But the Dolphins can accurately say that they landed a potential impact player with safety Jevon Holland with the next pick.
▪ Stevenson and Herbert are the ones where the Dolphins likely wish it could have gone differently.
Stevenson is averaging 4.3 yards per carry for the Patriots, with 236 yards rushing and 11 catches for 111 yards. He’s 48th in average yards after contact at 2.91.
On 10 plays when the Patriots needed between 1 and 3 yards for a first down, Stevenson has picked up the first down six times and is averaging 4.0 yards, including two touchdowns.
Conversely... On the 11 plays when the Dolphins needed between 1 and 3 yards for a first down, Malcolm Brown picked up a first down four times and averaged 2.1 on those carries.
“Stevenson’s a big back with good vision,” Flores said in January.
The Patriots picked him 120th overall after a strong career at Oklahoma.
The Dolphins didn’t have any picks between 81 (Long) and 231 (Larnel Coleman) due to other trades, and this was the sweet spot for a handful of good running backs that Miami couldn’t have acquired without trading future picks. That handful of good running backs also includes...
▪ Herbert, the former Plantation American Heritage and Virginia Tech standout who was picked in the sixth round by the Bears and has played very well, averaging 4.3 yards (364 yards rushing) in nine games and two starts for Chicago.
He’s 46th in the league in average yards after contact (2.96).
“Carter has got real good quickness, balance. Herbert’s the same,” Flores said at the Senior Bowl. “All three of them [Stevenson, Carter, Herbert] have good hands and can catch the ball out of the backfield.”
▪ Sermon has played only 83 snaps for the 49ers and run 31 for 155 (a 4.4 average).
And he’s averaging a strong 2.97 yards after contact (44th in the league).
The 49ers traded the 117th and 121st picks to the Rams to move up to 88 to get him. Sermon piqued interest after his big senior year at Ohio State — where he ran for 870 yards on 7.5 per carry — after transferring from Oklahoma.
Should the Dolphins be second guessed for not drafting a running back higher than seventh-rounder Gerrid Doaks, who’s on the practice squad and hasn’t played in a game?
Of course.
Should they be crucified for not landing any of the five backs that played for them at the Senior Bowl? Probably not.
But it would have been nice if they had the conviction to trade a future mid-round pick or two to get any of these mid-round backs, such as Stevenson or Elijah Mitchell (the sixth-rounder averaging 4.8 yards on 116 carries for the 49ers).
Some might say that the Dolphins’ poor run blocking makes it almost impossible to judge running backs.
The Dolphins don’t feel that way.
Asked if this is mostly an issue of the line not creating holes, Studesville said: “We all have our DNA on this. It’s a combination of everything. We’ve got to find more yardage in the run game.”
Asked what Gaskin can be doing better, Studesville said: “It’s being on the same page, spending time with the offensive line, watching, talking, seeing the angles of the blocks. Myles has to do a good job and put the ball in the right places.”
NEWS NOTE
Defensive lineman Christian Wilkins, who wasn’t at Wednesday’s practice because of a quad injury, was back at practice Thursday.
This story was originally published November 18, 2021 at 12:54 PM.
