What metrics reveal about Dolphins backs and how franchise failed. And a tight end update
Second in a series on how the Dolphins’ offense stands, by position, a bit more than halfway through the season:
When asked repeatedly on the final day of the 2021 NFL Draft why he again bypassed selecting all of the best available running backs, general manager Chris Grier kept asserting that Miami already had good running backs.
But those backs haven’t been nearly good enough this season, revealing a shortcoming that seemingly everyone except Miami’s front office could identify during the spring.
Betrayed by poor blocking and unable to shake enough tackles, the Dolphins’ running backs have been among the league’s worst this season.
Consider:
▪ Myles Gaskin ranks 42nd in yards per rush at 3.6, down from 4.1 last season.
During the past two games, he has just 70 yards on 32 carries, just 2.2 per carry — the most unproductive stretch since he broke out last season.
One of the backs the Dolphins bypassed taking in 2020 — the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor — ranks fourth in per-carry average at 5.9.
The back that the Dolphins allowed Denver to jump them to take this past April — Javonte Williams — ranks 11th at 4.9 per carry, though the Broncos have created far more space for runners than the Dolphins have.
Salvon Ahmed is averaging just 2.6 per carry, worst for any running back with at least 39 attempts.
▪ Dolphins backs remain subpar in yards after contact. Yes, the offensive line is making their job very difficult. But as coaches said this week, Dolphins backs are not maximizing their runs or hitting holes quickly enough. Gaskin admitted Tuesday that he can play better.
Of 125 backs, Malcolm Brown is 51st, averaging 2.79 yards per rush after contact.
But Gaskin is 92nd in yards after contact at 2.13 per attempt. Ahmed is 97th at 2.05. That’s according to Pro Football Focus.
Here’s what’s even more frustrating: Multiple third-day draft pick running backs coached by the Dolphins at the Senior Bowl (Chicago’s Khalil Herbert, New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson) have been far better than Gaskin and Ahmed in yards after contact.
FYI: Najee Harris, bypassed at No. 18 (and picking Jaelan Phillips in that spot can be justified), is at 2.7 in yards after contact.
▪ PFF has an “elusive rating” that “distills the success and impact of a runner with the ball independently of the blocking in front of him by looking at how hard he was to bring down.”
In that metric — which factors in missed tackles forced, yards after contract, and designed run attempts and receptions, Brown is 68th, Gaskin 74th and Ahmed 81st.
▪ As pass blockers, Gaskin has allowed eight pressures in just 44 pass blocking chances. That eight is the most allowed by any NFL running back.
▪ As a receiver, Gaskin has been targeted 45 times (third most among running backs, behind only D’Andre Swift and Pittsburgh’s Harris) and has caught 37 for 188 yards. But that 5.1 yards per reception ranks 91st.
By comparison, Swift averages 8.8 yards per reception, Harris 7.4.
▪ Brown has been a disappointment as a short-yardage runner. When the Dolphins needed between 1 and 3 yards for a first down, Brown has rushed 11 times this season and picked up a first down only four times, gaining 23 yards on those runs.
He has 1 yard on two fourth-down carries.
When the Dolphins need tough yards late, Brown hasn’t delivered, averaging 2.6 yards on 15 fourth-quarter rushes.
The Dolphins miscalculated by fashioning Brown as the answer to their need for a power back who would thrive in short yardage. If they had evaluated his short-yardage numbers in six years with the Rams, they would have known this.
The good news on Brown: PFF rates him the best pass-blocking running back in football this season. He has allowed only one hurry — and no sacks — in 44 pass blocking chances.
Brown remains out indefinitely with a quad injury.
▪ Co-offensive coordinator George Godsey has erred by running Brown out of shotgun snaps in short yardage. Brown’s 15 carries out of shotgun have produced just 29 yards, three first downs and no touchdowns.
Conversely, Brown has averaged 5.3 on 18 carries under center.
▪ Overall, of 67 qualifying running backs, PFF rates Gaskin 34, Brown 49 and Ahmed 59.
The group looked mediocre entering the season and has been much worse than expected.
TIGHT ENDS
▪ Mike Gesicki has been arguably the Dolphins’ best player, making a handful of one-handed catches and ranking fourth among tight ends in receiving yards with 529.
His 44 receptions are third among tight ends, behind only Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson.
His 12.0 yards-per-reception average is ninth.
PFF ranks Gesicki 14th among all tight ends.
He’s playing 72 percent of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps, up from 62 percent last season.
The Dolphins, wisely, have used him in pass protection only seven times all season. He has allowed two pressures on those seven pass blocking snaps.
The Dolphins clearly need to keep Gesicki, who can become an unrestricted free agent in March. One option is slapping him with the franchise tag, which comes with a salary and cap hit of about $11 million.
▪ Durham Smythe had 15 catches for 161 yards — a strong 10.7 yards per catch — and he’s playing 52 percent of the Dolphins’ offensive snaps, up from 45 percent each of the past two seasons.
PFF rates him 51st among 72 tight ends.
Smythe has been fine as a pass blocker, allowing three pressures in 30 pass blocking chances.
But PFF rates him only 72nd of 122 tight ends as a run blocker. Though blocking was his forte at Notre Dame, his run blocking metrics — according to PFF’s evaluation — have never been as good as there seemingly should be. He has run blocked on 118 plays, compared with 97 for Gesicki, who ranks 117th of 122 as a run blocker.
The fact Gesicki remains subpar as a run blocker is one reason the Dolphins drafted Hunter Long. It could be a factor in why the Dolphins haven’t given Gesicki a long-term contract, though he clearly needs to be retained because he’s one of the Dolphins with a top 10 NFL skill (receiving tight end).
▪ The good news on Adam Shaheen is he’s rated 29th as a run blocker among 122 tight ends; he has been used as a run blocker on 83 snaps. And he has allowed one pressure in 26 pass blocking chances. So as blocker, he has been clearly above average.
But after scoring three touchdowns on just 12 catches last season (for a 12.5 average), he hasn’t had those opportunities this season and has no touchdowns on eight receptions (and a 7.1 average).
He has played 45 percent of Miami’s offensive snaps — up from 34 percent last season.
PFF rates him 54th of 72 tight ends.
▪ Cethan Carter — the Dolphins’ first offseason signing in free agency — has had a negligible impact as a tight end/H-back, playing just 43 offensive snaps (he has two catches for 16 yards).
His biggest impact has been on special teams (144 snaps).
Long has been inactive for six of Miami’s nine games and has played just 29 offensive snaps and five special teams snaps. He has no receptions and been targeted once. The Dolphins still don’t have any idea what they have with him.
Here’s Part 1 of the series, on the botched attempt to rebuild the offensive line.
Here’s my Tuesday piece with news on Tua Tagovailoa and Will Fuller.
This story was originally published November 9, 2021 at 4:03 PM.
