Dolphins must hope they get yesteryear version of these players. And feedback on roster
So what exactly are the Dolphins getting?
As the season opens on Sunday, that’s the question with several players expected to play key roles on this team.
For the team’s second-year players, the question is whether most of them (Tua Tagovailoa, Austin Jackson, Raekwon Davis, Robert Hunt) will take significant jumps from decent to top half of the league at their positions. That’s critical for all four, particularly Tagovailoa.
But with some veterans, there’s a different question that will begin to play out on Sunday: Are the Dolphins getting the player who fell short of career production - often significantly so - the last time we saw them in regular season games?
Or are they getting the guy who was really good before falling off due to injury, age, or impossible-to-determine circumstances in the past year or so?
The most critical members of that group: Cornerback Byron Jones, receiver Albert Wilson, defensive back Jason McCourty and slot cornerback Justin Coleman.
Jones wasn’t awful last season by any stretch, but his pass coverage metrics declined from his Dallas days. Consider:
In 2018, his first year at cornerback after moving from safety, he allowed 37 of 69 passes against him to be caught for 481 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions and an 85.5 passer rating in his coverage area.
In 2019 with Dallas, Jones allowed 30 of 53 passes thrown against him to be caught for 331 yards, three touchdowns and a 94.1 passer rating in his coverage area. Pro Football Focus rated him the NFL’s 14th best cornerback.
But after signing a five-year, $82.5 million deal with the Dolphins, Jones relinquished a 117 passer rating in his coverage area in 2020, permitting 40 of 61 targets to be caught for 683 yards, five touchdowns and the two interceptions. His PFF rating plunged to 54th.
In his defense, he had two interceptions in the final weeks of the season. But everyone expects more. Imagine how incredible this secondary could be if Jones raises his play from decent to elite.
“One of those things I’m trying to do better is just getting my head around so I’m able to compete for the ball,” Jones said. “That’s one thing I wasn’t always great at, so I’m always working on that.”
Jones said in year two as a Dolphin, “I feel better playing a different style of football here [than in Dallas]. It was an adjustment” last season.
With Coleman, the Dolphins are hoping to get the instinctive defender who has allowed a strong 86.1 passer rating against in his coverage area when playing in the slot over his seven-year career (161 completions in 249 attempts for 1239 yards, 12 TDs and 4 interceptions).
They’re hoping they get the 2019 version of Coleman who was targeted a ton (more than any NFL cornerback except Logan Ryan) but had 13 pass breakups and three forced fumbles and played a team-high 963 snaps for the Lions. They’re hoping they get the player who had two interception returns for touchdowns for Seattle in 2017 and ‘18.
But they must hope they don’t get the 2020 Coleman, who permitted 33 of 40 passes to be caught against him for 365 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. That equals a 138 passer rating in his coverage area, worst among all slot corners who defended at least 40 passes in the slot.
“He’s a really good matchup guy; he covers big guys, he covers small guys,” Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said during Coleman’s tenure there.
Defensive backs coach Gerald Alexander said the decision about who will play the most at nickel corner -- Coleman or Nik Needham -- will be made on a week to week basis. Needham had an excellent camp and had a 90.6 passer rating in his coverage area last season.
“It’s tough in the slot but once you learn the ins and outs, you can get the hang of it,” Coleman said. “As long as I get my hands on guys, I can dominate.”
Also in their defensive backfield, the Dolphins hope they’re getting the 2019 Jason McCourty, who permitted just a 63.3 passer rating in his coverage area, 24th best in the league.
They’re hoping they do not get the 2020 McCourty, who had a 135.0 passer rating against him for New England, with four TDs and no interceptions. That was 19th worst among 224 cornerbacks.
He has now moved from cornerback to safety, a position at which he received limited snaps for the Patriots last season.
Wilson - who wasn’t as effective in 2019 because of hip and hamstring issues and opted out last season - showed in the first two weeks of camp that he’s still capable of being the guy who ranked among the league leaders in yards after catch in 2018, not the one who was 95th in that category among receivers in 2019.
Then there’s Michael Palardy, who missed last season after suffering a torn ACL in the summer but was 13th in punting average in 2019 for Carolina, when he placed 25 punts inside the 20, which was tied for 17th.
The Dolphins cut Benardrick McKinney after concluding he wouldn’t return to his 2018 Pro Bowl form. They must hope that Jones, McCourty, Coleman and Wilson regain their old form to return to the players they were at their peak. Wilson looks very much on his way.
FINS FEEDBACK
National predictions on the Dolphins are mixed. Peter King and all five writers for Pro Football Talk predict Miami will miss the playoffs. But ESPN rates them the 11st best team in the NFL (14 make the playoffs) and says the Dolphins have the best under-the-age-of-25 talent in the league.
ESPN’s Power Football Index, using a complicated formula, gives the Dolphins a 54.3 percent chance to make the playoffs and a 2.5 percent chance to win the Super Bowl. Football Outsiders predicts the Dolphins will make the playoffs.
“I think people are underestimating what Brian Flores has done in Miami,” ESPN’s Bart Scott said. “Miami is a good team. They have a better defense [and better] wide receivers” than New England.
Feedback from a longtime NFL front-office executive on the Dolphins’ roster:
▪ The executive said this is a playoff caliber team, if Tagovailoa is at least decent.
“They’re right there; they have speed on the outside, which had been a problem in the past, a good front seven and two really good corners.”
He said his team had Justin Herbert ahead of Tagovailoa before the draft.
“Put it this way,” the front office executive said. “If you knew nothing about these players and you’re looking at them for the first time before the draft, and you look objectively, I don’t know how you could say Tua was better. Look at every measurable and durability and every issue, and Herbert was the better prospect. I know Nick Saban can be convincing but I’ll never understand that decision.”
▪ He loves the Jaylen Waddle addition. Keep in mind that Waddle, per PFF, gained 15 yards on more on over 36 percent of his targets in his three-year career at Alabama, which led all FBS wide receivers by four percentage points over that period.
▪ What about running back? He’s not convinced about Myles Gaskin as a No. 1 back but said Salvon Ahmed “is interesting. He has really good ability. You can get by with the running backs they have. To me, a big question is can DeVante Parker and Will Fuller play a full season.” Fuller is serving the final game of an NFL suspension on Sunday.
He’s also not convinced about this offensive line. “I had concerns with Liam Eichenberg’s athleticism but he’s smart and tough. I’m not sure about Austin Jackson.”
▪ Defensively, “I like the Jerome Baker extension. That’s good for both sides. He can run but he’s a bit undersized to me. No issue with the McKinney [release]; he was a liability in the passing game. Really like Jevon Holland; he should come in and play right away.
“I think they’ll be hard to run on; Raekwon Davis give them size. Adam Butler is a solid player. If [Emmanuel] Ogbah does what he did last year and [Jaelan] Phillips stays healthy, and adding Butler, their pass rusher should be good enough.”
THE LAST WORD
▪ Dolphins executive Dan Marino remains hopeful about Tagovailoa.
“I just think he has a better understanding of where he wants to go with the football,” Marino told Sirius XM. “And dealing with protections and all that stuff. He’s done a really good job of that. Tua has been our guy and we’re going to stick with him.”
Pro Football Focus names Tagovailoa the biggest breakout candidate at quarterback, noting that in preseason he went 6-for-8 for 54 yards and a TD on 10 pressured dropbacks, taking only one sack.
“That 66.1 passing grade under pressure was drastically improved from the 39.5 passing grade he earned across 95 pressured dropbacks last year. With new weapons galore on the outside, the second-year passer should take a comprehensive step forward this season.”
Even without Parker or Fuller playing, no offense averaged more yards per pass play this preseason than the Dolphins (7.7), and that number was a half-yard higher when Tagovailoa was at quarterback (8.2 yards per pass play).
▪ NFL Net’s Ian Rapoport reported overnight that receiver Preston Williams (foot) is not expected to play on Sunday... Pro Football Talk reported that the Dolphins called the league office in recent weeks, trying to get clarity on whether or when Houston Texans quarterback and previous trade target Deshaun Watson would be suspended, but the NFL offered no such clarity.
Here’s my Saturday piece with roster news, an Austin Jackson update, and an in-depth comparison of the receivers, running backs and tight ends in the AFC East.
This story was originally published September 12, 2021 at 8:55 AM.
