Exploring Miami Marlins catcher and center-field options for 2022 and what’s realistic
As the Marlins begin the daunting task of fixing their dreadful offense, here’s the first question they should ask themselves: “At what positions can we afford to say: ‘We’re set there for 2022.’”
It’s a short list.
Ironically, they’re fine at the one position that doesn’t exist yet in the National League (designated hitter) — because they still control arbitration-eligible Jesus Aguilar, who has ranked among the National League RBI leaders all season. There’s cautious optimism that a universal DH will be implemented this winter.
They need to stick with second baseman Jazz Chisholm (.256, 14 homers, 44 RBI ) because he’s the one young prospect who has both the talent and a large enough body of work to be projected as a very likely 2022 starter.
Despite the limited run production, they’ll probably feel that way about shortstop Miguel Rojas (.267, 7, 35) because he’s relatively cheap, reliable and a team leader.
They might believe they’re set with arbitration-eligible Brian Anderson, but his uneven, injury-interrupted season (.249, 7 homers, 28 RBI in 67 games) suggests that third base warrants at least a discussion this offseason. Perhaps Anderson and a young pitcher could fetch a higher-caliber bat.
So that leaves five spots that need to be addressed: catcher, the three outfield spots and first base.
If there’s a DH, the Marlins could talk themselves into projecting Lewin Diaz as the starter at first base — though they have no idea if he can hit major league pitching — and have arbitration-eligible Garrett Cooper or a cheap stopgap on board as their 2022 protection if Diaz struggles.
Assuming Diaz is ready to be a full-time starter is somewhat risky. Diaz is 10 for 72 (.139) in his big-league career and is hitting .256 at Triple A Jacksonville, though the power numbers (20 homers, 51 RBI) are encouraging. He received work in left field this past weekend.
But for catcher and at least two outfield spots, the Marlins unquestionably must find starting solutions outside the organization. Exploring both:
CATCHER
The Marlins can’t and likely won’t be fooled by Jorge Alfaro’s recent hot streak playing in the outfield and elsewhere; they know they need a better starting catcher. But options are limited.
There are only five average or better starting catchers who can become free agents this winter, and four of them have team options.
The one who definitely will be a free agent (barring a contract extension) is Oakland’s Yan Gomes, who’s hitting .263 with 12 homers and 46 RBI for the Nationals and Athletics. He’s earning $6 million this season and would be a clear upgrade on Alfaro.
The four starting catchers who have team options for 2022:
1. Giants great Buster Posey at $22 million. At 34, he’s hitting .304, 16, 41. But the idea of him finishing his career as a Marlin seems highly improbable.
2. Boston’s Christian Vazquez at $7 million. At 31, he’s hitting .253 with five homers and 39 RBI and would be an upgrade on Alfaro if available.
3. Cincinnati’s Tucker Barnhart at $7.5 million. At 30, he’s at .266, 7, 42 and would be a name worth keeping in mind.
4. Tampa’s Mike Zunino at $4 million. The 30-year-old is hitting only .206 (and .201 in a nine-year career) but has 27 homers and 51 RBI this season. He’s an unlikely fit for Miami.
The Marlins like Pittsburgh’s Jacob Stallings - who has three years of arbitration eligibility remaining - and could offer a pitching prospect or two in return. Stallings has been pretty average offensively this season (.236, 8 homers, 47 RBI in 97 games). But his ability to call a game and work with a pitching staff is considered elite.
And Stallings’ WAR (wins over replacement) is a strong 2.6 this season -- identical to Phillies catcher J.T. Realmuto’s.
Besides Stallings, other potential trade targets include the Angels’ Max Stassi (.275, 11 homers, 29 RBI in 68 games) and Arizona’s Carson Kelly (.253, 10, 34 in 76 games). Kelly, who has a .373 on-base average, would be an interesting option if the Diamondbacks enter a full rebuild.
What’s clear is that Alex Jackson - acquired from Atlanta in the Adam Duvall deal - isn’t a starter and might not even be a worthy No. 2. In 69 at bats with the Marlins, he’s hitting .135 with 37 strikeouts.
In 112 career big-league at bats, he has 13 hits (a .116 average) and 59 strikeouts.
There were three home runs among those hits, but that hardly offsets the horrifying strikeout rate of more than 50 percent.
Don Mattingly sees some potential there: “We’ve seen the power to dead center. I think his swing works. There has been some swing and miss.
“[Hitting coach Eric Duncan] and the hitting staff will look at that and evaluate it. This guy has hit at the minor league level. There’s a lot there to like with the swing and the way it works and his game plan.”
OUTFIELD
The Marlins see Jesus Sanchez (.241, 6 homers, 17 RBI in 38 games) as a potential long-term starter, and Bryan De La Cruz (.354, two homers, nine RBI in 29 games) has been a wonderful surprise since his acquisition from Houston in the Yimi Garcia trade.
But considering Lewis Brinson has cooled off a bit (he’s at .246, 7, 25 in 62 games overall), it would be risky for the Marlins - if not delinquent - to project more than one starting outfield spot among those three.
The Marlins likely could feel safe projecting either Sanchez as a starter - depending on how he finishes this season - or a Sanchez/De La Cruz platoon. (Sanchez hits left-handed; De La Cruz hits right-handed).
So where do the Marlins find two above average starting outfielders, including a center fielder?
There’s only one clearly above average center fielder set for free agency, and unfortunately for the Marlins, it’s Starling Marte, who the Marlins could have extended but opted to trade after they couldn’t agree to terms on a new contract. Marte wanted four guaranteed seasons, and the Marlins offered only three with a team option on a fourth.
The free agent market is thin. Aside from Marte and Ian Desmond (who has opted out of the past two seasons and has a $15 million Rockies team option), the best available free agents who are pure center fielders - excluding Marte - are mediocre Michael Taylor (.246, 11, 45 in 120 games for Kansas City) and Juan Lagares (.242, 3, 30 in 87 games for the Angels).
Jackie Bradley — who has a $9.5 million player option — has unraveled this season, going from hitting .283 for Boston in 2020 to .174 for Milwaukee.
A few other free agent options: Michael Conforto has had a highly disappointing year for the Mets: .217, 10 homers, 36 RBI in 97 games. Conforto - who tormented the Marlins on Tuesday - will be just 29 on opening day in 2022 and still appears to be a solid defender.
He last played centerfield in 2019 for New York - when he started 33 games there - and could be passable at the position for Miami. Earlier this season the Marlins were inclined to play Duvall in center to get his bat in the lineup, and this could be a similar thought. This would be risky for the Marlins and clearly would be banking on Conforto’s offense returning to its previous form.
Oakland’s Mark Canha — a former Marlins seventh-round pick in 2010 — has started 21 games in center for the A’s and is batting .233 with 13 homers and 46 RBI in 112 games. Canha has a WAR this season of 2.5, which is well above replacement level, and a .360 on-base percentage. If Miami is looking for an experienced lower cost option, Canha would fit that bill.
The A’s might try to retain him; Marte might be too pricey for them to retain and their previous starter Ramon Laureano is suspended all of April in 2022.
The Dodgers’ Chris Taylor would be an appealing but possibly unrealistic choice for Miami. Taylor plays all over the diamond (including 41 games in center this season) and has emerged as one of the best players in the National League, hitting .272 with 19 homers and 68 RBI in 126 games.
Taylor, 30, could net a contract in the $75 million to $100 million range this offseason. The Marlins have never pursued a player at that cost during the Bruce Sherman ownership but the team will have an additional $35 million-plus in new revenue this winter because of the new TV and stadium naming rights deals.
Unless the Marlins sign one of these aforementioned players or surprisingly decide De La Cruz is their starting center fielder, the position likely will need to be addressed via a trade. And to do so, the Marlins are likely to make available a pitcher, two or three among the group of Braxton Garrett, Max Meyer, Elieser Hernandez, Eury Perez, Jorge Guzman, Nick Neidert, Jesus Luzardo and Kyle Nicolas.
A deal involving ace Sandy Alcantara can’t be ruled out if the Marlins can revive talks for Pittsburgh outfielder Bryan Reynolds - whom they have coveted - or another elite bat.
We’ll explore 2022 corner outfield options in a future piece.
Please follow Barry Jackson at @flasportsbuzz and Craig Mish at @CraigMish.
This story was originally published September 1, 2021 at 12:24 PM.
