One area where the Miami Heat doesn’t know what it’s getting. And that’s worrisome
A six-pack of Miami Heat notes on a Thursday:
▪ The Heat pretty much knows what it’s getting with this roster: a group of tough, defensively skilled, high-effort players — three of whom have All-Star bodies of work (Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry, Bam Adebayo).
One unknown, as with every team, is health.
Here’s another: Whether the Heat’s new power forward tag team will shoot threes at an acceptable rate.
There has been wide variation in the three-point shooting for both of the Heat’s new power forwards, P.J. Tucker and Markieff Morris.
Tucker shot 31.4 percent (48 for 131) on threes for Houston in 32 games last season, then 39.4 percent (18 for 46) in 20 games for Milwaukee in the regular season, then 32.2 percent (19 for 59) during the Bucks’ playoff run to an NBA title.
He’s at 35.9 percent in his career on threes, which is decent, but he’s prone to major highs and lows, particularly at his advanced age (36).
Here’s the concern: His percentage on corner threes — which is his forte offensively — dropped last year, to 34.7 percent in the regular season and 31.4 in playoffs. During the past five seasons, 73 percent of his threes have been corner threes.
Morris, meantime, shot 38.6 percent on threes in 2019-20 but 31.1 percent for the Lakers last season in 61 games, including 27 starts. He’s a career 34.1 percent three-point shooter.
So the Heat cannot be sure what it’s getting from three-point range with either.
Both have been very good from distance at times in the past two years, which — combined with their defense and toughness — make them valuable pieces. But they have also struggled from three-point range at times.
Incidentally, Tucker was 2 for 5 on clutch threes last season — which is defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of a game with a margin of five points or fewer — and 0 for 1 in the playoffs.
Morris was 3 for 9 on clutch threes last season; he didn’t shoot one in the playoffs.
▪ Besides Tucker and Morris, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra will have three other power-rotation options to pair with Adebayo in stretches (certainly not full time): Dewayne Dedmon, KZ Okpala and Omer Yurtseven.
Dedmon once shot 38.2 percent on three-pointers in 2018-19 (83 for 217). But he has shot 20.5 percent on threes (23 for 112) since then.
The Heat believes Okpala can be a rotation player if he ever develops his corner three (a big if). Okpala is just 12 for 51 (23.5 percent) on three-pointers in his career and struggled with three-point shooting during most of summer league.
It’s interesting that Heat president Pat Riley mentioned this offseason that Yurtseven — a skilled three-point shooter — could play alongside Adebayo. The question is whether Spoelstra will trust him for a rotation spot at any point this season.
Adding Bobby Portis (47.1 percent on threes last season), Rudy Gay (38 last season) or Jeff Green (41.2 last season) during the offseason would have offered a greater likelihood of more efficient three-point shooting.
But the Heat opted to go the defense/toughness route, and Portis decided quickly to stay with the Bucks before a formal Heat offer.
▪ A quick defensive note on Morris: Players shot 45.4 percent against him last season, compared with the 47 percent those players shot overall.
A veteran NBA scout said besides playing power forward, “Morris can play some center, too. It’s a good signing. That gives you more defense, more toughness, a guy that doesn’t screw around. Brings some nastiness and can shoot. Not as offensively skilled as his brother [Marcus]. He can post up. Good defender.
“He can defend threes [small forwards] that are less mobile. I don’t think he can guard threes that have speed. He can guard guys who are more fours than threes.”
▪ Morris is the better rebounder of the two new power forwards.
Tucker has averaged 5.1 rebounds per 36 minutes in his career, Morris 7.6.
Among players who have played alongside Adebayo the past two seasons, Kelly Olynyk averaged 8.3 rebounds per 36 minutes in his career, Meyers Leonard 8.7, Jae Crowder 6.0 and Trevor Ariza 5.8.
So Tucker’s rebounding numbers are subpar for a player cast as a power forward.
The Heat didn’t get taller — Tucker is 6-5, Morris 6-8 — but they did become more stout and physical.
▪ It would help, of course, if the Heat made it more of a priority for Adebayo to become a better three-point shooter, at least a player who could become a threat from distance.
But Riley has said he doesn’t believe that’s something that needs to be done urgently and immediately and Spoelstra has never made it a priority.
▪ Some believe the Heat should instead have looked for a natural center instead of a power forward, but options weren’t appealing.
“You’ll never see how good Bam can be until he’s playing power forward,” ex-NBA coach Sam Mitchell said on NBA TV.
This story was originally published September 23, 2021 at 4:57 PM.
