The mixed bag of results — and Ng’s thoughts — on key Miami Marlins outfield prospects
In this regime’s perpetual search to fix the outfield, the Marlins can be heartened by the enormous growth in Lewis Brinson and what Jesus Sanchez and Bryan De La Cruz have displayed in small sample sizes at the big-league level.
They can take comfort in big power numbers for Griffin Conine (a minor-league leading 31 homers between Single A and Double A this season) and Peyton Burdick (20 homers).
They can find solace in the growth of outfielder J.D. Orr, the speedy former 10th-round pick who’s hitting .340 since his promotion to Double A Pensacola.
More discouraging is the inability of several top outfield prospects to hit for average this season, after many of them missed last season because COVID canceled minor league baseball in 2020.
Sizing up the Marlins’ top outfield prospects, with input from a one-on-one conversation this week with general manager Kim Ng:
▪ JJ Bleday, the fourth overall pick of the 2019 draft, is hitting .199 with 11 homers and 41 RBI in 378 plate appearances at Double A Pensacola, with 53 walks and 81 strikeouts and just a .315 on-base average.
Some internally had believed he would progress quickly in the system and potentially become a starter in 2022. But that’s highly unlikely.
Bleday is now hitting .216 in 127 career minor-league games, a disappointment for a player who hit .347 with 27 homers and 72 RBI in 71 games in his final year at Vanderbilt and was universally praised by talent evaluators entering the draft.
Is Ng concerned?
“I guess I would say in general my job is to be concerned [about] everybody and everything,” she said.
“Look, I think any time a player doesn’t perform to the way we expect or the way he wants to, you have to be a little concerned. But overall, knowing his personality and having an understanding of his character and makeup, I think he’s going to be fine.
“The first couple months, first three months, after coming back from not having played too much, we have to put it into context. This is a small little bit of what we think will be a great career. When you look back at other players and the hills they had to climb; the peaks and valleys happened at different times. The fact this happened in the first part of the first year back after a pandemic,... it’s OK. If it happens in a year…”
Ng then stopped before continuing.
“When these guys go through struggles, it’s an important part of the learning process,” she said. “You want to see them struggle so they can get through it and the struggles then become shorter and shorter. We’re a little bit concerned. You would like him to start off hitting .400, but they don’t all do that. That’s a big part of this. At the end of the day, I think it’s going to be a blip on the screen.”
The good news on Bleday, 23: He has hit better recently.
“I’ve been trying to overdo it, be someone I’m not,” he said last week of his offensive struggles this season. “I’m trying to take a step back, relax, and try to put together some good ABs. I’ve been tinkering [with the swing] all year long. Over these past several weeks, I’ve been able to make some adjustments. I’ve got to go back to what’s natural to me as a player.”
▪ Though Burdick’s power and run production (45 RBI) at Pensacola have been encouraging, he’s hitting just .223 in 376 plate appearances, including 116 strikeouts.
But the 2019 third-round pick has had a good August and his on-base average is fine (.370) because he has walked 64 times. Because he was a polished college hitter and batted .308 in A ball in 2019, the results this season — from an average standpoint — have been something of a letdown, though the power numbers are encouraging.
“Sometimes I get in the habit of swinging too hard,” he said last week. “My motto now is I’m thinking about being boring at the plate. You don’t have to hit a home run every time.”
Ng’s take on Burdick: “The run production has been really good. At Double A, when you get to that level, it does become a lot harder. We talk about how good pitching is at the Double A level, even more so than at the Triple A level.
“For him not to do as well as he did [in 2019], we should expect that. As he goes on, we should see progression. We should see his at-bats get better, and we’re working with him quite a bit. Unless you’re hitting .400, you always want them to do better. I think we’re OK with that.”
▪ Connor Scott, the former Tampa prep standout and 13th overall pick of the 2018 draft, was considered a five-tool prospect, but the results have been modest at High A Beloit (.258, 6 homers, 29 RBI, 11 for 17 in steals in 70 games).
He has hit .245 in 242 minor-league games but is still very young (21), and it’s still too soon to know what — if anything — the Marlins have with him.
“He’s still a very young player, especially when you compare him to guys who are 23 or 24,” Ng said. “When you put it into that context, it’s [important]. He’s got plus tools for sure. He’s gaining strength, which we think is a big thing for him.”
▪ Victor Victor Mesa, the ballyhooed 2018 international addition who received a $5 million signing bonus from the Marlins, began the season hitting .093 (7 for 75) at Pensacola. He was then demoted to Beloit, where he’s at .293 in 23 games. At 24, he needs to be further along than this.
“He’s been OK,” Ng said. “You wish it would be a little bit better, but we think he’s doing OK.”
▪ Monte Harrison, who’s 10 for 57 (.175) with 29 strikeouts in two brief Marlins stints during the past two seasons, is hitting .252, with six homers, 24 RBI and 62 strikeouts in 155 at-bats at Triple A Jacksonville.
One of the key pieces of the Christian Yelich trade faces an uncertain future here.
The Marlins could have promoted him to get at-bats that are instead being given in the outfield to Magneuris Sierra and catcher Jorge Alfaro. It’s interesting that they haven’t, but Ng made clear the Marlins remain intrigued by Harrison’s talent.
“We’ve only got two spots and we’ve got some tough decisions coming up,” she said. “It’s going to be hard. He’s been fine. He made a catch last week where he climbed the wall. Just to watch him physically, he really is dynamic.”
▪ Kameron Misner, the 35th overall pick in 2019, is at .245 with 10 homers and 52 RBI and 115 strikeouts in 373 at bats at High A Beloit, Wisconsin.
“He’s been doing very well lately,” Ng said. “We’re excited about him. He’s got tools - defense, arm. You’ve seen the power some.”
▪ Outfielder Jerar Encarnacion, who’s playing at lot of first base, is hitting .220 with nine homers and 28 RBI and 88 strikeouts in 242 plate appearances at Pensacola. He’s a ways away.
▪ As for Jeff Conine’s son, he has had a feast-or-famine season, driving in 76 runs in 90 games while hitting just .230 between Beloit and Pensacola. He’s hitting only .187 with 40 strikeouts in 98 plate appearances at Pensacola and 8 of his 17 hits there are homers.
The Marlins are excited about the power. And with regard to cutting down on strikeouts, “we have our guys working with him,” Ng said. “You always are going to want to decrease the strikeout rate. I’m not sure there’s any acceptable rate. I know our guys are working on that.”
The Marlins took several outfielders in last month’s draft, including Mississippi State’s Tanner Allen (the SEC Player of the Year) in the fourth round and South Carolina’s Brady Allen in the fifth round.
Bottom line is the Marlins will enter the offseason without any starting outfielder with even a full season of high-level major league production. But at least Sanchez, Brinson and De La Cruz have offered reason for hope.
The ideal scenario would have been re-signing impending free agent Starling Marte instead of trading him for a pitcher, Jesus Luzardo, who has struggled (9.20 ERA for Miami).
Here’s how the Marte talks went down, per sources: When Marte’s camp conveyed to the Marlins that he wanted a four-year deal, the Marlins offered four years and $40 million (with a $10 million option on the fourth year).
But Marte wanted a guaranteed fourth year or something in the four-year, $45 million range. Miami then offered three years and $36.5 million.
But he said no and the Marlins dealt him to Oakland for Luzardo, who has pitched poorly in two of his three starts here.
As for Adam Duvall, the Marlins traded him to Atlanta for catcher Alex Jackson because they knew he likely would opt out of his $7 million mutual option this offseason. But we’re told the Marlins never asked his agent what it would take to keep him in 2022 and potentially beyond.
So the Marlins are left without knowing who their starting outfielders will be next season, though Sanchez has a good chance to be one of them.
Before landing on the COVID list, Sanchez (.265, 3 homers, 9 RBI In 23 games) looked like the top-100 prospect that many consider him to be. He returned on Monday.
If much-improved Brinson (.276) and De La Cruz (.300) continue to hit at this pace, the Marlins might be able to project one 2022 starting spot between the two of them. It would be risky to project both — as opposed to one of them — as 2022 starters because of the fairly small sample size of success.
The Marlins will need to acquire at least one - if not two - veteran starting outfielders this winter.
De La Cruz, acquired in the Yimi Garcia with Houston, has impressed everyone.
“He looks comfortable,” manager Don Mattingly said. “Obviously, defensively he made a lot of plays. The guy’s comfortable in the outfield, seems to be natural. Thought his [recent] at bats were good. I think it’s good we get to see this for an extended period of time.”
He was hitting .324 with 12 homers and 50 RBI in 66 RBI in Triple A Sugar Land before the trade.
De La Cruz, speaking through an interpreter, said that having a chance — at least for now — to be a big-league starter “is a moment I’ve waited for all my life. I won’t take it for granted. Every day, I hope to show everybody a little more of myself.”
THIS AND THAT
Though the Marlins and Sandy Alcantara exchanged multiyear contract proposals last month, Alcantara said his agent didn’t share that information with him, which suggests the Marlins’ offer wasn’t considered appealing enough to discuss with the Marlins’ No. 1 starter.
“I want to be here for a long time,” Alcantara said. “I don’t know how long. But I want to be here.”
Alcantara isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2024 season.
▪ Ng indicated pitcher Edward Cabrera (2.67 ERA, 86 strikeouts in 57 innings at Jupiter/Pensacola/Jacksonville) will be among those considered for a September promotion, but the 2020 Max Meyer-led draft class won’t be…
Keep an eye on emerging pitcher Eury Perez, who has been promoted to High A Beloit. At 18, Perez is the youngest player in High A in all of Minor League Baseball. He had a 1.61 ERA with 82 strikeouts in 56 innings at Low A Jupiter….
Lefty Dax Fulton, the second-rounder in 2020, also was promoted to Beloit after not yielding a run in 14 consecutive innings at Jupiter.
▪ Baseball America rated the Marlins’ farm system 12th in its midseason report. The Marlins have six players ranked in the publication’s top 100 prospect list: pitchers Sixto Sanchez (33) and Meyer (35); outfielder Sanchez (57); pitcher Jake Eder (71); Cabrera (76); and rookie shortstop Kahlil Watson (81).
The magazine said “the Marlins track record of pitching development bodes well for them to reach their potential. Now, the Marlins need to find some impact bats.”
Follow Barry Jackson on Twitter at @flasportsbuzz. Follow Craig Mish at @CraigMish.
This story was originally published August 17, 2021 at 1:48 PM.
