An early look at Marlins’ trade deadline scenarios and the thinking on Marte
Some nuggets on decisions facing the 31-40 Marlins, with the July 30 trade deadline more than a month away:
▪ Though impending free agent outfielder Starling Marte told us that he wants to sign an extension and finish his career with the Marlins, our understanding is that the Marlins — at this point — are reluctant to give him a three- or four-year contract.
We’re told the Marlins would be comfortable with a two-year deal, perhaps for something in the $30 million range.
But if Marte wants something in the range of three years and $40 million or four years and $50 million, the expectation is that the Marlins would walk away, because Marte is 32 and the organization has a half dozen outfielders in their system who they believe could become major-league starters.
Among them are center field prospects Connor Scott and Kameron Misner and two corner outfielders who have been given reps in center at Double A Pensacola: JJ Bleday and Peyton Burdick.
As of last week, the Marlins and Marte had not had any extension talks. He’s earning $12.5 million this season.
If the Marlins determine by July 30 that they won’t be able to agree on a new deal and if they’re not in realistic contention for a wild-card berth, they likely will explore trading their best hitter. Miami probably could command a front-line prospect in return.
There’s another option, too: If the Marlins believe they’re still in the playoff race at the trade deadline, they could keep Marte and make him a qualifying offer this winter, which would be in the $20 million range for one year.
If Marte declined the offer, the Marlins would get a compensatory draft pick after the first round if he signed elsewhere.
▪ The Marlins’ chances of dealing outfielder Corey Dickerson — who’s on an expiring contract — diminished when he sustained a foot contusion that will sideline him indefinitely. He’s in a walking boot for at least three weeks.
What about trading outfielder Adam Duvall, who’s in the first year of a two-year deal?
We’re told the Marlins are hesitant to move on because they need a veteran outfielder in 2022, with the expected departure of Dickerson this winter, combined with Marte potentially leaving for more money elsewhere.
Duvall’s recent hot streak left him tied for fifth in the National League with 16 homers (entering Tuesday) and sixth in RBI (52) despite a .216 average.
Duvall is making $2 million this season. There’s a mutual option for $7 million next season; if the Marlins decline that option, they must pay him $3 million. If he remains this productive (or close to it), he’s likely to return in 2022 despite the low average.
▪ If the Marlins are out of contention in late July, there’s a decent chance they will move on from Garrett Cooper or Jesus Aguilar. That would give them an opportunity to give two months of at-bats to prospect Lewin Diaz, to get a sense if he can hit major-league pitching.
Diaz is hitting .158 with 17 strikeouts (and two homers) in 54 major-league at bats, but the Marlins believe he can be their first baseman of the future.
Aguilar, earning $4.35 million this season, is arbitration-eligible again this winter and could see his salary approach $10 million for 2022.
Cooper, earning $1.9 million this season, also is arbitration-eligible again this winter but is in line to command significantly less than Aguilar.
▪ Miguel Rojas presents an interesting quandary. If he gets to 500 plate appearances, he would guarantee making $5.5 million next season because of a vesting option. He would reach 500 if he averages 3.2 plate appearances per game during Miami’s final 91 games.
There’s no indication the Marlins want to deal Rojas — particularly because of Isan Diaz’s continued struggles — but an offer of a legitimate prospect could warrant a discussion. The infielder would have value to a contender.
▪ If the Marlins are out of the race in late July, look for them to make these three relievers available: Yimi Garcia, Adam Cimber and Ross Detweiler.
Garcia, who has converted 11 of 14 save chances, is earning $1.9 million this season and is arbitration eligible this winter.
Cimber, on a one-year, $925,000 deal, has pitched well in recent weeks (3.23 ERA for the season) and could be of interest to a contender seeking sixth-or seventh-inning relief help.
Detwieler, on a one-year, $850,000 deal, has been generally effective and could net a decent prospect (certainly not a top one) from a contender seeking left-handed relief help.
The Marlins also could be tempted if a team makes a strong offer for lefty Richard Bleier.
▪ What about Dylan Floro, who has pitched effectively except for three poor outings?
Here’s the problem: He has made 32 appearances (tied for seventh in the National League) and there’s concern about whether he will wear down late in the season. Five times this season, he has pitched on consecutive days. During the back half of those five sets of back-to-backs, Floro has allowed five runs in 3 1/3 innings.
▪ If the Marlins are asked for a pitching prospect in a bigger trade, Braxton Garrett likely would be the one dangled. He still has some value, but much less so than before Tommy John surgery four years ago that diminished his velocity.
THIS AND THAT
▪ We’re told Marlins third baseman Brian Anderson was surprised when the Marlins placed him on the 60-day injured list, retroactive to May 25. He’s eligible to return July 24.
Anderson, who has been diagnosed with left shoulder subluxation, has been rehabbing the injury and believed he would be ready potentially much sooner than that — by the first or second week of July.
He’s hitting .250 with three homers and 11 RBI in 35 games.
▪ Multiple former Marlins have risen to the defense of former general manager Mike Hill, who is now MLB senior vice president of on-field operations.
In an MLB memo to teams outlining MLB’s plans to crack down on pitchers’ use of illegal substances, Hill wrote that the league’s early season research showed “that the use of foreign substances by pitchers is more prevalent than we anticipated.”
Arizona right-hander Zac Gallen, who played for the Marlins and was traded for Jazz Chisholm during Hill’s tenure, said Hill “was in charge of an organization that was definitely at one point saying, ‘Hey, you’re going to need these things to help you.’”
Hill called Gallen’s claims “completely false” and suggested the pitcher’s comments were influenced by his agent, Scott Boras.
Pitcher Brad Ziegler, whose time in the Marlins organization intersected with Gallen’s (though they were never regular-season teammates), told us via text message: “In my two seasons in Miami, I never saw anyone [coaches, front office or otherwise] instructing any players on using sticky substances to enhance grip or alter ball flight.”
Former Marlins pitchers Brad Penny and Tom Koehler have defended Hill on Twitter, denying he encouraged pitchers to use illegal substances.
Our understanding is the Marlins pitchers don’t use spider tack, which makes the ball cling to a pitcher’s fingers longer. They do use rosin. Using spider tack — or combined anything with rosin — will violate MLB rules and be punishable beginning this week.
▪ Among the Marlins’ more perplexing personnel moves this season: promoting journeyman infielder Deven Marrero last week ahead of 25-year-old shortstop Bryson Brigman, who was acquired by the Marlins from Seattle for Cameron Maybin in 2018 and is hitting .320 in 33 games at Triple A Jacksonville.
Marrero, a career .193 hitter in 322 big-league at-bats, went 0 for 3 for Miami in his first start and then was designated for assignment.
▪ The Marlins would like to select an offensively-skilled catcher at some point in the MLB Draft, which is July 11-13. But the top catching prospect, Louisville’s Henry Davis, is projected as a top-10 pick, and the Marlins select 16th.
FSU catcher Mat Nelson would be an option in the second round if he surprisingly drops that far. He hit .330, with 23 homers and 66 RBI in 53 games for the Seminoles this season.
Baseball America has the Marlins selecting Miami of Ohio right-handed pitcher Sam Bachman with the 16th pick in the first round. Bachman was 4-4 with a 1.81 ERA this season, with 93 strikeouts in 59 ⅔ innings and just 46 base-runners allowed (29 hits, 17 walks). His fastball runs 95-98 mph.
MLB.com’s Jim Callis has the Marlins taking South Carolina prep outfielder Will Taylor but notes “the Marlins would likely love if a college player like [UCLA shortstop Matt] McLain or Bachman got here, but in this scenario, both are gone.”
Follow Craig Mish at @CraigMish and Barry Jackson at @flasportsbuzz
This story was originally published June 22, 2021 at 2:33 PM.
