How the Miami Heat essentially lost this playoff series in November, December and January
One of the most humbling weeks in Heat history began with a Khris Middleton buzzer-beater, continued with Milwaukee dismantling Miami twice over 72 hours and came complete with public lampooning, including Charles Barkley ‘sweeping’ the floor with a broom in TNT’s studio on Thursday night.
But the seeds of this Heat fiasco were planted much sooner than that.
If the Bucks complete this first-round victory — which could happen as early as Game 4 at 1:30 p.m. Saturday at AmericanAirlines Arena (TNT, Bally Sports Sun) — this series essentially will have been won as much in November, December and January as the past week.
November is when the two teams took vastly different approaches in roster construction.
December is when Milwaukee delivered a message that this year would be different, administering a 144-97 beatdown of the Heat in Miami.
January was when the Heat made a noble decision to play games when it barely had a roster, then lost four games to teams missing some of its best players.
Let’s start in November, when the Heat was thinking big, or big men, drafting Precious Achuiwa and giving Meyers Leonard a two-year, $19 million deal.
The thinking was that type of size would be enough — in concert with Bam Adebayo and Kelly Olynyk — to combat any big frontlines that would stand in the Heat’s way.
But Achiuwa wasn’t deemed ready to play meaningful minutes alongside Adebayo and lost his rotation spot when Dewayne Dedmon arrived, while Leonard lost his starting job after just two games and played in only three games overall before a season-ending shoulder injury.
After inquiring about Marcus Morris (who signed a big deal with the Clippers) and declining to approach Phoenix’s three-year, $30 million deal for Jae Crowder or Portland’s two-year, $19 million offer for Derrick Jones Jr., the Heat quickly decided to split its $9.6 million midlevel exception between Avery Bradley and Moe Harkless.
Harkless scored 15 points in his Heat career before being jettisoned to Sacramento. Bradley - signed to upgrade the perimeter defense - missed significant time with injury, then was used - with Olynyk - in a deal to acquire Victor Oladipo, whose season ended after four Heat appearances.
So aside from Goran Dragic (who re-signed when free agency started), not a single offseason Heat signing has provided any help in this playoff series.
Contrast that with the November moves of the Bucks, who acquired Jrue Holiday with a bevy of draft assets that the Heat lacked; signed Bobby Portis for the same $3.6 million that Miami gave Harkless but provided infinitely more than Harkless gave the Heat; and added sharpshooter Byrn Forbes for two years and $4.7 million.
According to a source, the Heat showed mild interest in Portis early in free agency but never made an offer, opting instead for Harkless as its veteran stretch-four addition.
Portis, who would have been open to Heat overtures, then had a career year (11.4 points, 7.1 rebounds, 47.1 percent on threes). He’s averaging 10 points and 6 rebounds and shooting 12 for 19 in this series and can become an unrestricted free agent on Aug. 2.
Forbes, meantime, is averaging 12.7 points and shooting 9 for 19 on threes in this series.
In Miami’s defense, the Heat didn’t know it needed shooters after a 2019-20 season in which it finished second in the league in three-point percentage (37.9).
That’s why the Heat bypassed players such as Forbes or draft prospects such as TCU’s Desmond Bane, the 30th overall pick who has made 120 threes for Memphis on 43.6 percent accuracy as a rookie between the regular season and playoffs. Bane’s agent, South Florida-based Seth Cohen, spoke in November of having the best shooter in the draft.
But the Heat’s three-point shooting — aside from Duncan Robinson — proved uneven during the past six months. Miami dropped to 19th in the league in three-point accuracy at 35.8 percent during the regular season and is shooting 33.6 percent on threes in this series.
The Heat tried to rally this spring by adding Trevor Ariza (who has contributed overall but went scoreless in Games 2 and 3), Dedmon (a helpful piece), Oladipo (bad luck doomed that experiment) and Nemenja Bjelica. But the Bucks’ November 2020 pickups — plus P.J. Tucker — have lifted Milwaukee far more than the Heat’s newcomers.
Dragic conceded this Bucks roster is a “lot better” than the one that the Heat ousted in the second round last season. It hasn’t helped that several key Heat players — Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro — have played far worse in this playoff series than last September’s series win against Milwaukee.
So that’s the personnel component that sowed the seeds for what’s happening now. But there were other factors that led to this.
In early January, the Heat was left with the minimum-required eight players because of injuries and COVID protocols. Had Miami ruled any of its other players out with an injury, games against the 76ers would have been rescheduled.
Instead, the Heat showed integrity by playing — and losing — both games. Would it have made a difference if Miami manipulated the situation and forced the games to be rescheduled? Impossible to say. But with just eight players available to try to slow Joel Embiid, Miami predictably lost both games in Philadelphia.
That month also featured a home blowout loss to perhaps the league’s worst team (Detroit) and losses to a Boston team missing 2020 All-Star Kemba Walker, a Dallas team without its second-best player (Kristaps Porzingis), a Toronto team without 2020 All-Star Kyle Lowry and the first of what would be two losses to a Clippers team missing both of its best players (Kawhi Leonard, Paul George).
Win any one or two of those games — or subsequent losses to Minnesota, an Atlanta team without Trae Young or John Collins, a Washington team without Russell Westbrook, a pair of losses to both Indiana and Charlotte, a big blown lead late in Golden State, a late-season home loss to Chicago — and the Heat likely would have ended up in the easier Atlanta/New York bracket.
Asked if he’s shocked by this turn of events — consecutive losses by a combined 63 points — Adebayo said: “Yeah, they’re making shots and tough ones. The ball won’t go in for us.”
Dragic made clear that what’s happening is not a byproduct of lack of passion.
“We have players who care,” he said. “Everybody cares. They still need to win one game. We’re not going to surrender. We need to be more focused, be more physical.”
But even that likely won’t be enough to overcome an offseason when the Bucks became significantly better and the Heat didn’t. And the misfortune of the Oladipo situation - beyond the Heat’s control - made matters only worse.
This story was originally published May 28, 2021 at 11:33 AM.
