NBA scout sizes up Heat-Bucks series, explains why it shouldn’t be a surprise if Miami wins
Eight thoughts from a veteran NBA scout on the Miami Heat-Milwaukee Bucks first-round playoff series:
▪ He said Milwaukee should be considered only a slight favorite — not a prohibitive one — and that it wouldn’t surprise him if the Heat won, because of myriad reasons: the Heat’s ability to defend Giannis Antetokounmpo with versatile wings and bigs, the Heat’s exceptional offensive play recently, past playoff success against Milwaukee and more.
“I assume the Heat will play a lot of zone,” said the scout, who is not authorized by his team to speak publicly. “Brook Lopez is guardable. Whoever is guarding him; any one of those three [Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Trevor Ariza] can guard him.
“With Giannis, any time you get into a jump-shooting game, you have an edge. Even with the [Heat’s] size disadvantage, any of those three Heat guys — Butler, Bam, Ariza — are capable to some extent of matching up with him. If anybody can guard him, it’s Butler and Adebayo.
“Milwaukee is the much better rebounding team [second, compared to 29th for the Heat], but their defense gives up a lot of threes, and the Heat” is trending up offensively.
Both the Heat and Bucks allowed 110.7 points per 100 possessions, tied for ninth best in the league from a defensive standpoint. Milwaukee was the league’s highest-scoring team.
“I’m telling you, Milwaukee is going to get schemed [by the Heat coaching staff],” the scout said. “The Heat didn’t have enough size against Philadelphia and did fine. I wouldn’t be too concerned about the size issue.”
Keep in mind that Antetokounmpo’s three-point shooting dropped from 30.4 percent last season to 30.3, but he took fewer this season (3.6 per game, compared with 4.7). He shot 3 for 14 on threes against the Heat in last year’s playoffs.
▪ The scout acknowledges the Bucks (with Jrue Holiday, Bobby Portis and P.J. Tucker) are better than last year’s team that lost in five games to the Heat in the Eastern Conference semifinals. But he warns not to assume that will be the difference this year.
“People think Holiday is this great defender; he’s not,” the scout said. “Good defender, not a great defender. He’s much more of a scorer than a playmaker. He turns the ball over historically [2.7 per game in his career]. He’s a good player. Is he a killer? I don’t know that. He’s very competent. When they made the deal people were saying he was the end all and be all. He’s been an All-Star [once, in 2013].
“I’m not as sold on Holiday as others. Eric Bledsoe was pretty good last year; it’s a difference but not a huge difference to me in their play. Their record was worse this year.”
I found this interesting: Players guarded by Holiday shot 47.4 percent this season, which was worst (from a defensive standpoint) among all Bucks starters. Those same players shot 46 percent overall.
Last season, players guarded by Bledsoe shot 41.4 percent.
Offensively, Holiday averaged 17.7 points, 6.1 assists and shot an exceptional 50.3 percent from the field and 39.2 on threes this season.
Bledsoe, last season for the Bucks, averaged 14.9 and 5.4 and shot 47.5 percent and 34.7 percent on threes.
So the Bucks are better with Holiday than Bledsoe, and Holiday’s shooting numbers this season were great, much better than his career marks. But Holiday needs to continue shooting at that clip in this series; if he reverts to his career averages, then the offensive production wouldn’t be much different than what Bledsoe gave them.
▪ The scout gave the Heat the edge in the backcourt, favoring Kendrick Nunn, Duncan Robinson, Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro over Holiday, Donte DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton and Bryn Forbes.
“I give an edge to Miami at guard but it’s not blatant, because of the way Nunn has been playing,” the scout said, adding that Robinson also has been very good.
“Forbes and Connaughton are just shooters. What Nunn and Dragic have is the ability to get their own shot; they’re more well-rounded offensive players.
“Having what Dragic gives them coming off the bench is really valuable. Herro is playing well. There is more upside with Miami’s guards.”
▪ Another reason the scout makes Milwaukee only a slight favorite:
“Does the home-court even matter this year? Barely. That’s been mitigated with the lack of fans. It’s not the same environment.”
▪ As far as opening matchups, the scout said “you can afford Ariza’s fouls more than Butler or Adebayo so I might start him on Giannis,” with Butler on Khris Middleton and Adebayo on Lopez. But he would put Butler and Adebayo on Antetokounmpo for significant stretches, as well, and make ample use of zone defense.
▪ Among newcomers to the series (from last year), the scout gives the edge to Milwaukee with Holiday and Portis (“he’s had a very good year”) and to a lesser extent, Tucker.
But Dewayne “Dedmon’s size is helpful. You can stick him on Giannis a little bit and he’s mobile enough to guard Lopez. You can stick him on Portis. He’s got shot blocking and size. And Ariza has looked pretty good, made some threes, can still defend. Physically, he looks fine.”
▪ He’s curious how Milwaukee will respond if the Heat takes Game 1 or 2 in Milwaukee. Will the Bucks become tight, wondering if last season’s playoff nightmare will repeat itself?
“The pressure is on Milwaukee even though they’re the favorite,” the scout said. “If they lose one of their first two home games, no doubt they will think, ‘Is this happening again?’ They need some playoff cred. They have a lot to prove.”
▪ His final thoughts: “This could easily be a seven-game series. Milwaukee is a slight favorite, but it wouldn’t surprise me if the Heat won. Their coach [Erik Spoelstra] is obviously very good; they’re gelling at the right time. They’re healthier than they’ve been. They beat them last year. You’ve got to look at where the Heat was at the end of the season, not earlier.”
Miami is 33-17 since a 7-14 start.
This season, the Heat is 33-19 when Butler plays, the Bucks 40-21 when Antetokounmpo plays.
Here’s my Tuesday media column with Heat, Hurricanes, NBA and Marlins media news.
This story was originally published May 18, 2021 at 3:37 PM.
