Five reasons why Heat ousted the Bucks last year and how it can happen again
If you ask the Heat and Bucks about last year’s five-game second-round playoff series that crushed Milwaukee’s title hopes, prepare for the questions to be swatted away, like a Bam Adebayo block of Boston’s Jayson Tatum at the rim.
And there are fairly good reasons for that: This is a new season, there’s no NBA bubble, and the Bucks have several important new players.
But let’s be clear about this, too: It would very much help the Heat if a few developments in last year’s Eastern Conference semifinals could repeat themselves.
Five of them, as the team prepares for Game 1 on Saturday in Milwaukee (2 p.m., ESPN/Bally Sports Sun):
▪ Milwaukee again shooting blanks from three-point range. If this wasn’t the most significant aspect to last year’s 4-1 Heat series win, it certainly ranked in the top three.
After shooting a slightly below-average 35.5 percent on threes last season, Milwaukee shot just 32.7 percent on three-pointers in the playoffs against Miami, repeatedly missing decent looks.
Khris Middleton made just 11 of 33 threes, Giannis Antekounmpo 3 of 14, George Hill 6 of 18, Eric Bledsoe 3 of 14, Wes Matthews 5 for 15, Marvin Williams 2 of 10.
Only Brook Lopez (12 of 28) and Kyle Korver (6 of 13) made the Heat pay from three-point range.
The Bucks, this season, moved on from Hill, Bledsoe (dealt in a package for Jrue Holiday), Matthews, Korver and Williams, who retired.
They replaced them with Holiday, Bobby Portis, Bryn Forbes, Jeff Teague and Donte DiVincenzo, who was already on the team but became a full-time starter this year.
Each of those five, except Teague, responded with the best three-point shooting season of his career.
As a result, the Bucks shot 38.9 percent on threes, which was 12th in the league and a key reason Milwaukee led the NBA in scoring at 120.1 points per game.
But here’s the question that’s a big deal in this series: Will those four sustain their three-point brilliance or will they regress to their career means?
Consider this: Holiday shot 39.2 on threes this season, well above his 35.8 career average. Portis shot 47.1 percent on threes, an enormous jump from his 38 career average. Forbes shot 45.2, up from 41.2 in his career. DiVincenzo shot 37.9 percent on threes this season, up from 34.9.
And there’s there: P.J. Tucker, since his March acquisition, has seen his three-point shooting jump from 31.4 in 32 games with Houston to 39.4 percent in 20 games with Milwaukee.
Playing with Antetokounmpo obviously helps create open shots, and with the Heat determined to stop the two-time MVP, threes will be readily available for Milwaukee. If the new Bucks players make them at the rate they have all season, the Heat will have major problems.
▪ Holding Antetokounmpo to offensive numbers well below his average.
With Adebayo, Jimmy Butler and ex-Heat player Jae Crowder — among others — harassing him and the Heat often sending a second defender, the Bucks star averaged just 21.8 points and shot 50.8 percent from the field in that five-game loss to the Heat.
That point total was well below his scoring average last season (29.5) and this season (28.1) and his shooting was worse than his overall percentage last season (55.3) and this season (56.9).
Antetokounmpo did the Heat a favor by taking 14 threes in last year’s series, and he missed 11. He’s still a subpar three-point shooter (30.3 percent this season).
▪ Again beating the Bucks - a very good rebounding team - on the boards.
Miami outrebounded Milwaukee by seven in that series, a feat that will be challenging to repeat following a season in which the Bucks were third in the league in rebound differential (plus 4.6 per game) and the Heat was 19th (-1.3).
Two big keys to that rebounding dynamic in last year’s series: Adebayo averaged 12 boards and Herro averaged 5.6 (very good for a guard). This season, those two averaged 9.0 and 5.0 rebounds, respectively.
▪ Getting vintage Goran Dragic, or close to it.
Dragic averaged 19.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.2 steals in that series while starting and playing 35.2 minutes per game. He likely won’t need to log as many minutes, with Kendrick Nunn now thriving as a starter.
Dragic — who averaged 13.4 points and 26.7 minutes this season — enters postseason on a roll, having scored at least 17 points in five of his past seven games and hitting 17 of his last 33 three-point attempts.
▪ The Heat regaining clutch magic.
The Heat was the NBA’s best team in the clutch during the playoffs last year, outscoring opponents by 47 points late in close games.
And during the Bucks series, Miami shot 48.5 percent (16 for 33) from the field in the clutch (defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or fewer), 9 for 10 from the line and 35.3 percent on threes. Miami outscored Milwaukee by 17 points in 18 clutch minutes.
The Bucks, conversely, shot 36 percent from the field (9 for 25) and 25 percent on threes (2 for 8) in the clutch against the Heat in last year’s playoffs.
This season, everything changed. The Heat shot 37.5 percent in the clutch (ahead of only Houston) and a league-worst 22.9 percent on clutch threes (19 for 83). Yet the Heat somehow finished 18-16 in games featuring clutch minutes.
Herro was one of the NBA’s best clutch three-point shooters as a rookie (15 for 32 combining regular season and playoffs) but was 6 for 23 (26.1 percent) on clutch threes this season and shot 32.4 percent overall in the clutch (12 for 37).
If games are close in the final minutes of this series, Miami needs better clutch shooting from Herro, Butler (16 for 46 from the field in the clutch this season, 34.8 percent this season), Dragic (4 for 16, 25 percent) and Duncan Robinson (7 for 22, 31.8 percent).
This season, the Bucks shot 45.5 percent in the clutch (seventh best in the league) and 36.2 percent (eighth best) on clutch threes and yet were only 13-15 in those clutch games.
So yes, this is a Bucks team with five new rotation players and a Heat team with two (Trevor Ariza, Dewayne Dedmon). But all five of these 2020 playoff dynamics again loom large in this Heat-Bucks playoff sequel.
This story was originally published May 19, 2021 at 12:25 PM.
