Rare criticism from a national platform about Dolphins’ draft moves and thinking behind it
A six-pack of Miami Dolphins notes on a Wednesday:
▪ Most every analyst with a pulpit or microphone has praised this Dolphins draft because Miami might have netted four or five starters.
But Overthecap.com’s Jason Fitzgerald, who looks at everything very analytically, isn’t sure all of the Dolphins draft maneuvering was the right move from a value standpoint.
Fitzgerald explained the complex formula used to assess trades here.
He makes the point that Jaylen Waddle eventually will need to play at the level of a top-five-paid receiver to justify giving up the 2022 first-round pick that was needed to move up from 12 to 6 to draft him.
“I defended this trade for the Dolphins when it was made with the expectation they were either still aiming for a QB or hoping to trade back with a QB-needy team,” Fitzgerald said. “Instead they end up trading an extra first-round pick for a wide receiver who winds up not even being the top receiver taken.
“When they made this trade the board was pretty much set to where you knew they were getting the leftovers of the TE/WR group so it’s not as if they didn’t know what they were doing when they made this trade either. The expected return here is around the 15th highest-paid receiver in the NFL and they will need him to play around the level of the top five, similar to that of an Amari Cooper or Michael Thomas.”
Fitzgerald was more troubled by the trade up for Notre Dame offensive tackle Liam Eichenberg at No. 42.
“This was another terrible trade for Miami giving up a third next year that they hope everyone will forget about to move up eight spots to take a position where the top players on average are drafted in the fourth round,” Fitzgerald said.
“They need to get nearly double the value from Eichenberg, about 10 percent more than the other two trades requiring a massive jump. They will need him to go from a projected level of around Zach Banner, around the 20th-highest-paid, to Bryan Bulaga, who is the fifth-highest-paid.
“Now Eichenberg is versatile and perhaps could wind up at left tackle or guard, which changes the equation and would not make it as bad as shown here. But if right tackle is the spot, they need him to be a top-tier player.”
The Dolphins plan to play Eichenberg at right tackle.
▪ Dolphins safety Eric Rowe, who played alongside Bobby McCain last season, is now breaking in a new safety partner: rookie Jevon Holland.
Asked his reaction to McCain’s release, Rowe said Wednesday: That’s “how the NFL goes. Teams are always switching out players. That’s the business side. Bobby was a great leader, very vocal, a huge piece of our defense.”
McCain, who was signed by Washington after the Dolphins released him, had particular value as a communicator calling out coverages before the snap.
Rowe said “if Jevon wins the job, you’ve got to step up. I need to be more vocal out there. Once we start running reps, he will become vocal and bark out the calls and adjustments. We all have to pick up that role.”
Rowe said Holland “is athletic, has nice size. He’s a smart guy, picking up on the defense pretty fast.”
A bond between the two — from an anticipation standpoint before/during plays and knowing where the other will be —”comes with time,” Rowe said.
▪ Rowe covered tight ends well last season except two games against two of the league’s best: Kansas City’s Travis Kelce and Las Vegas’ Darren Waller.
“Those were two of the best tight ends in the league, along with George Kittle,” he said. “I was watching film right after the game, looking at what could I have done better. I have to step my game up. We have the Raiders Week 3. I’ve been waiting for that all year. I need a rematch on that. With them two, you’ve got to take your game to another level. Thank God we got the win [against Las Vegas], but man those were tough games.”
Per Pro Football Focus, Rowe allowed just a 76.9 passer rating in his coverage area; players he covered caught 47 of 74 targets for 508 yards, with one touchdown and two interceptions. That ranked 13th among players with at least 400 snaps in coverage.
Incidentally, Rowe said new Dolphins defensive back Jason McCourty, his former Patriots teammate, “brings a lot of knowledge, a lot of wisdom. I still ask him questions football-related. He brings instant leadership to the back end.”
▪ Found this interesting from SI.com’s Albert Breer: He said “I don’t believe I talked to a single scout the last month who didn’t think [new Dolphins rookie linebacker Jaelan] Phillips was the best rusher in the draft and a top-10 prospect on tape.”
Two front-office evaluators both told me before the draft that they believed Phillips would outperform Greg Rousseau as NFL players.
▪ With Jerome Baker, Benardrick McKinney and Brennan Scarlett absent from voluntary work last week, former Eagles and Falcons linebacker Duke Riley has been getting a leg up.
The former third-round pick from LSU has good speed and can play inside and outside.
Linebackers coach Anthony Campanile loves the “intensity with which he practices. He’s eager to learn and he’s done well so far.”
Linebacker Elandon Roberts looked good last Wednesday in his recovery from a significant knee injury, suggesting he should be fine for the opener.
▪ As the Dolphins mull whether to make a long-term commitment to Mike Gesicki — who could become an unrestricted free agent in 2022 — Pro Football Focus makes this point:
“Even with Mike Gesicki on the roster, [Hunter] Long fills the need for a true inline tight end. He was a volume target at Boston College — head and shoulders the best receiving option for the Eagles over the last couple of seasons. He does a lot of different things at a very good level and can help in a few different roles; he just might not have the requisite athleticism to be a difference-maker.”
One of the fascinating subplots of this draft class is whether Long ends up more along the lines of a Durham Smythe or Adam Shaheen — skilled players who are assets but not front-line starters — or whether Long can be something far more. Opinions on that are mixed, with former Chiefs executive Scott Pioli among those seeing Pro Bowl potential.
Kelce, during an interview with Bleacher Report, listed Gesicki among the top five tight ends in football. Excluding himself from the discussion, Kelce mentioned Kittle, Waller, the Eagles’ Zach Ertz, the Ravens’ Mark Andrews and Gesicki, who had 53 receptions for 703 yards and six touchdowns in 2020.
Here’s my Wednesday piece on one big problem holding back the Miami Hurricanes’ football program.
This story was originally published June 2, 2021 at 3:31 PM.
