More draft predictions for Dolphins, the Bengals/Dolphins dynamic and dead money builds
Ten Dolphins-flavored notes hours away from the NFL Draft:
▪ The Dolphins had to worry about the Cincinnati Bengals throughout the 2019 season as the teams jockeyed for the top quarterbacks in that 2020 draft class. That didn’t work out as Miami hoped; the Dolphins coveted Joe Burrow, but the Bengals rebuffed trade offers and opted to keep Burrow.
Now, for a second time, the Dolphins will need to worry about the Bengals, because Cincinnati’s decision will shape how the Dolphins’ recent trade machinations are perceived.
Let’s be clear: Alabama receivers Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith are well-positioned to be good NFL players. Neither would be an objectionable pick at No. 6 if they’re the best players available.
But if UF tight end Kyle Pitts and LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase are off the board at No. 6, it will be perceived as disappointing for Miami to have to settle for a different player, agent Drew Rosenhaus said on his Fox-7 segment last week, echoing views of NFL people who have weighed in privately on the issue.
With several ESPN reporters predicting the Falcons will take Pitts fourth, the Dolphins’ dream scenario of landing either Pitts or Chase will hinge on the Bengals at No. 5.
Cincinnati’s intentions are so shrouded in mystery that ESPN’s Todd McShay wrote Monday morning that he heard they were leaning toward Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell and said on TV on Monday afternoon that he’s now hearing Chase. “I’ve heard two sides of it, and I don’t know what to believe,” McShay said.
SI.com’s Albert Breer said “people at LSU seem confident” that Chase is going to the Bengals.
Miami is in position to sweat Cincinnati’s pick because...
“Most people around the league believe [Atlanta at No. 4 will] end up going Kyle Pitts,” ESPN”s Adam Schefter said Thursday. “[Falcons coach] Arthur Smith is infatuated with Kyle Pitts.”
But Schefter said there’s a caveat.
“If the 49ers go Mac Jones [at No. 3], the Falcons would be tempted on Trey Lance at No. 4,” Schefter said. “But I also think they will be really tempted on Kyle Pitts, who’s a player that many front-office people and general managers believe might be the top player in this entire draft.”
The glass-half-full perspective if Miami ends up with Waddle or Smith: As we reported in January, the Dolphins were eager this offseason to acquire a dynamic slot receiver, and either Alabama receiver would fill that need. Plus, that 2023 49ers first-rounder would be a valuable asset if used on a player or used on a trade.
▪ The most prominent draft analysts unveiled their final mocks Wednesday and Thursday, and here’s where they landed with Miami’s pick at 6 and 18, if you’re scoring at home:
NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah: Chase at No. 6 (with Pitts gone to Atlanta at No. 4 in this scenario) and Michigan edge rusher Kwity Paye at 18. Jeremiah predicts Paye will be a better NFL pass rusher than college pass rusher.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr.: He has Miami taking Smith at No. 6 (with Pitts and Chase off the board) and Paye at 18.
ESPN’s McShay: Alabama receiver Waddle at No. 6 (with Pitts and Chase off the board) and Notre Dame linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah at 18.
“Waddle is the class’ most elusive playmaker with the ball in his hands,” McShay said. “Tagovailoa and Waddle connected for nearly 800 yards in Tuscaloosa, too…. Versatility is the name of the game for Owusu-Koramoah. He can play all over the defense and contribute to multiple areas. Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer could use a dynamic player like Owusu-Koramoah in the middle of his defense.”
NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein: Waddle at No. 6 (“with Chase [and Pitts] off the board, my guess is Miami will take Waddle, who creates easy catch-and-run opportunities.)”
He then has Miami taking USC guard Alijah Vera-Tucker at 18: “He has guard/tackle flexibility in addition to NFL-ready power and body control. Some teams see him as a future Pro Bowl guard, but it might be premature to rule out a full-time look at right tackle.”
Pro Football Network’s Tony Pauline: Sewell at No. 6, Paye at 18.
▪ Pro Football Focus has Miami taking these players in its seven-round mock draft: Dolphins trading down (with Denver from six to nine) and taking Waddle.
Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons at 18 (would be surprising but not totally stunning if he’s there), Wake Forest’s Carlos Basham at 36, UF quarterback Kyle Trask at 50 (that would be stunning), Syracuse safety Andre Cisco at 71 (via a trade with Denver), Alabama running back Najee Harris at 81 (that seems like to fantasy to believe he falls that far) and Arizona State receiver Frank Darby and South Carolina inside linebacker Saharius Hutcherson with two seventh-round picks.
▪ An NFL front office executive who was in touch with the Dolphins this week conveyed to me that he would be surprised if the Dolphins draft Sewell, based on his conversation with them.
A different NFL official in touch with the Dolphins this week conveyed to me he would be surprised if the Dolphins try to move up from No. 6 and that they seem content with the options at No. 6.
▪ Georgia pass rusher Azeez Ojulari has been linked to Miami at No. 18 in two mock drafts this week: ESPN’s NFL Nation (Dolphins picks were made by Cameron Wolfe) and Mike Florio’s on Pro Football Talk.
Ojulari at 18 (or Paye) wouldn’t surprise me, though many have Ojulari going in the 20s. Miami has had some contact with Olujari on Zoom but not an inordinate amount.
▪ What are the odds of the three top running backs all being available when Miami picks 36th?
Apparently not very good.
NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport said teams are expecting Alabama’s Najee Harris will be gone by Pittsburgh’s spot at 24, if not earlier, and some teams now expect North Carolina’s Javonte Williams to go in the first round, too.
He said Clemson’s Travis Etienne is the most likely of the three to go in the second round. Miami has the fourth pick in the second round.
The Dolphins have had multiple virtual meetings with all three of those backs, and all three believe the Dolphins are interested.
▪ The fact the Ereck Flowers trade saved Miami just $2 million against the cap leaves the Dolphins in the same position as they were before that trade with Washington: Without enough cap space to sign a draft class and practice squad, let alone having a cushion to add anyone else in the next eight months (beyond rookies).
The Dolphins have $9.3 million in space and will assuredly need to create more by releasing players or restructuring contracts.
The Dolphins now have these 2021 dead money cap hits: $4.1 million on Kyle Van Noy, $2.7 million on Shaq Lawson and $8 million on Flowers. That’s $14.8 million on your cap for players who you signed 13 months ago, believing they would be multiyear nucleus pieces. There’s no positive way to spin that.
It’s interesting that the Dolphins opted to dump the second- and third-highest paid players of their 2020 spending spree (Van Noy and Flowers) instead of reworking the contract of the highest-paid 2020 pickup (Byron Jones) — a move that would have essentially extended their commitment to him.
The Dolphins clearly were eager to move on from Flowers. They will likely use a guard combination of Solomon Kindley at left guard and Rob Hunt at right guard.
▪ If the Dolphins are still looking for skilled pass rushers on Day 2 of the draft, we wrote about several of them here, a group including Washington’s Joe Tryon, Oklahoma’s Ronnie Perkins, Penn State’s Jayson Oweh, Buffalo’s Malcolm Koonce, Wake Forest’s Carlos Basham and Texas’ Joseph Ossai.
One other name to add: Houston defensive end Payton Turner, who had 10.5 sacks in just five games last season and 7.5 sacks in 12 games in 2020.
The 33rd Team — former Dolphins executive Mike Tannenbaum’s think tank — called Turner one of the top sleepers in this draft, noting that he “has quietly been rising up draft boards. Turner’s massive wingspan of more than 7 feet and high speed and quickness make him an intriguing pass rushing prospect. Look for Turner to be a Day 2 pick who could sneak into the end of the first if a team falls in love with his measurables.”
▪ Jim Nagy, the Senior Bowl executive director and a sharp evaluator of talent, offered this Dolphins mock draft:
No. 6: Chase
No. 18: Harris
No. 36 Georgia’s Ojulari
No. 50 Wisconsin-Whitewater guard/center Quinn Meinerz
The Dolphins like all four of those players. But Harris at 18 would be a mild surprise and I’m not sure Ojulari gets to 36.
▪ Nagy listed five players who could sneak into the first round: Oklahoma center Creed Humphrey, Alabama defensive tackle Christian Barmore, Ohio State linebacker Pete Werner, UCF safety Richie Grant and Washington defensive tackle Levi Onwuzurike.
Drafting Barmore or Onwuzurike would be an unconventional but interesting way to address the front seven and would result in a mammoth front three of Christian Wilkins, Raekwon Davis and the rookie, a group that at the very least should be stout against the run. Adam Butler and Zach Sieler also would be in that mix.
Emmanuel Ogbah and Andrew Van Ginkel would be the edge players in that scenario.
Drafting a defensive tackle — as opposed to a natural end or outside linebacker — would be a novel approach.
Remember, Miami tried to sign defensive tackle Lawrence Guy after signing Butler. But Guy, who opted to return to the Patriots, also can play defensive end.
This story was originally published April 29, 2021 at 10:20 AM.
