The area where the Miami Heat is worst in the Eastern Conference, and why it’s surprising
When the Miami Heat’s sputtering offense badly needed a basket to close out the Chicago Bulls on Saturday night, Duncan Robinson bolted from the three-point line, cut sharply to the basket and took a bullet pass from Bam Adebayo for a layup, putting the Heat ahead seven with 34 seconds left.
The Heat might need more of those types of creative plays in the clutch because of this sobering reality:
During the defining moments of close games this season, no Eastern Conference team has shot worse than the Heat on long jumpers and three-pointers.
The Heat’s shooting numbers during clutch time - defined by the NBA as the final five minutes of games with a margin of five points or less - have been stunningly bad this season, one reason why Miami is 8-11 in games that have been decided by five points or less or gone to overtime.
The Heat is shooting 23.4 percent on clutch threes this season (18 for 77); only Houston and San Antonio have been worse.
By comparison, two teams just ahead of the Heat in the Eastern Conference standings - New York and Atlanta - have shot 44.7 and 42.1 percent on clutch threes.
Overall, the Heat is shooting 38.5 percent from the field in the clutch (72 for 187); only Houston shoots worse late in close games.
Don’t blame Bam Adebayo, who is second behind Atlanta’s Clint Capela in clutch shooting at 64.5 percent (20 for 31), among all NBA players who have made at least 20 clutch baskets this season.
But excluding Adebayo, every other Heat player - combined - has shot 33 percent in the clutch (52 for 156).
Tyler Herro has gone from one of the NBA’s best shooters in the clutch to well below average; he’s 6 for 23 on clutch threes this season (26.1 percent) after shooting a ridiculous 15 for 32 on clutch threes between the regular season and playoffs last year.
Duncan Robinson is 7 for 22 in the clutch this season (31.8 percent) , including 4 for 18 on threes (22.2 percent).
Jimmy Butler - who shot 57.1 percent in the clutch in last season’s playoffs (12 for 21) - is 15 for 42 this season (35.7 percent), including 1 for 7 on threes. But to his credit, Butler has continued to draw fouls late in games and made 26 of 31 clutch free throws (83.9 percent).
Goran Dragic is 4 for 15 from the field in the clutch this season, Kendrick Nunn 3 for 9, Andre Iguodala 1 for 5 and Trevor Ariza 1 for 4.
Not a single Heat wing player is shooting better than 36 percent late in close games, one of the puzzling mysteries of this season.
And if that doesn’t change quickly, the Heat - late in close games - will need to rely primarily on Adebayo mid-range jumpers, Butler drives to the basket or the type of resourceful plays we saw from Robinson and Adebayo late in Saturday’s game.
“Those can be big relief baskets for us,” Robinson said of that late layup on Saturday. “Bam is super dynamic - and Jimmy - in that mid-post area. It’s on us to be creative, set screens, get each other open and make timely cuts and plays. It was good to get that one. We went through a little scoring drought... It’s nice to get that kind of relief.”
Adebayo leads the Heat in clutch minutes with 94 (out of a possible 114), followed by Robinson at 91, Herro 88, Butler 83, Iguodala 50, Dragic 38 and Nunn 35.
Clutch shooting is one of the areas where the Heat has most regressed from its bubble performance.
During the postseason last year, Miami shot 52 percent in the clutch (39 for 75) and 36.8 percent on clutch threes (14 for 38), best in the East. Both numbers are down nearly 14 percent this season.
If you wondered, Jae Crowder, the most important Heat wing player who left the team, was 3 for 7 overall and 2 for 6 on clutch threes in postseason last year. Crowder has struggled on clutch threes for Phoenix this season, shooting 6 for 23 (26.1 percent) - the exact same clutch three-pointer numbers as Herro has this season.
Considering the Heat’s poor clutch shooting this season, it’s a testament to Miami’s defense - combined with Adebayo’s excellent clutch shooting and Butler’s ability to draw fouls -- that the Heat is 17-15 in games that have included clutch minutes this season, and has been outscored by only seven points overall in the clutch.
INJURY UPDATE
The Heat listed Iguodala (hip soreness) and Victor Oladipo (knee soreness) as out for Monday’s home game against the Chicago Bulls and Herro (foot soreness) and Nunn (elbow soreness) as questionable.
Herro missed Saturday’s game with the foot issue and has been out 13 games this season. This is the first time that Nunn’s elbow injury has surfaced on the injury report.
Nunn, over his past five games, is averaging 19.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.6 assists, just 0.8 turnovers and shooting 51.4 percent from the field and 50 percent on threes. Miami is 4-1 in that stretch.
“That [basket] looks like the ocean right now,” Nunn told Bally Sports Sun’s Jason Jackson after Saturday’s win against the Bulls.
Butler said he believes Nunn is an even better player than the one who finished second in Rookie of the Year voting last season.
“He has stepped right back into the role he had,” Butler said. “He has performed extremely well. He is learning all the right reads, taken all the right shots. When the kid is locked in on defense, he’s a player you’ve really, really, really got to pay attention to then.”
Regarding Nunn and Robinson, Butler said: “I [couldn’t] care less if they make shots; they were so locked in on the defensive end [Saturday against Chicago], knowing their play calls, being in the right position, switching at the right time, knowing all of our schemes; that’s what I pay more attention to. They are going to make shots… Making or missing, I just want you to be locked in on the defensive end.”
▪ Boston’s loss to Charlotte on Sunday left the Celtics and Heat at 32-29, with Boston holding the sixth spot in the East and Miami seventh based on the Celtics’ win in their only prior meeting this season. The Heat/Celtics tiebreaker will be determined by results of the teams’ games May 9 and 11 in Boston.
This story was originally published April 25, 2021 at 5:41 PM.
