The NFL’s Dolphins trade down possibility report, the clarification and what it tells us
So what do we make of NFL Network insider Ian Rapoport’s tweet that the Dolphins are again considering trading down for a second time?
That Monday tweet, for the 78 percent of America that isn’t on Twitter, was this: “The Dolphins have already made two moves in the NFL Draft and they may not be done yet: Sources say they’ve received calls from teams looking to trade up to No. 6 and it is something they’re considering. Lot of things in play, but Miami could be at it again.”
Rapoport then added this on a TV appearance Tuesday: “If the Miami Dolphins at 6 like who’s there, let’s say Kyle Pitts falls to them at 6, they would have a hard time, I would imagine based on my knowledge, trading out of taking Kyle Pitts. He might be everyone’s favorite player in the draft not named Trevor Lawrence. Let’s say there’s a couple of quarterbacks there and Kyle Pitts is gone. They had the 49ers pay them a premium for a quarterback early. They might get someone to pay a premium for a quarterback again, and they might benefit from two teams trading up for a quarterback, get more picks, more ammo and still stay in that area to get a premium player.”
A couple of thoughts:
Timing, of course, is everything, and that trade down is a move we’ve been advocating if — and only if — LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase and UF tight end Pitts are on off the board at No. 6.
Making such a trade before determining whether Pitts or Chase is on the board at No. 6 seems foolhardy. Amid Rapoport’s clarification and other things we’ve heard, it would surprise me if the Dolphins did that before the draft. But while it would surprise me, it wouldn’t totally stun me because of indications that they wouldn’t mind ending up with one of the Alabama receivers — DeVonta Smith or Jaylen Waddle — if they don’t snag Pitts or Chase.
Which of the two Alabama receivers the Dolphins prefer is the mystery known only to a handful. Smith can play the slot and boundary. Waddle is more of a slot, and someone who spoke to the Dolphins front office in January said they were determined to find a fast, elite slot receiver this offseason. At least one, if not both, of the Alabama receivers should be available in the 9-to-11 range.
The Dolphins’ initial trade-down from No. 3 to No. 12 suggests there wasn’t a player (meaning Pitts or Chase) they felt they absolutely must have in this draft.
The move up from 12th to sixth suggests they want to position themselves to take the best player on their board that’s left among Pitts, Chase, Smith or Waddle.
The Atlanta Falcons, at No. 4, remain a wild card in all of this. Though Falcons owner Arthur Blank reportedly is intrigued by the quarterbacks in this class, he is deferring to management on what players to pick. And ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported last week that the Falcons are trending toward taking a non-quarterback, though it’s fluid.
The Bengals could select Chase, Pitts, Oregon left tackle Penei Sewell or Northwestern tackle Rashawn Slater at No. 5.
SI.com’s Albert Breer suggested he won’t be surprised if Waddle is Miami’s pick at six. And before some fans flip at that, keep in mind that Waddle caught 86 percent of his targets before his ankle injury last season and that among Power 5 wide receiver with 100-plus receptions since 2014, none averaged more yards after the catch per reception than Waddle (9.8).
And, as NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah said, Waddle is “one of the most talented kickoff and punt returners to enter the NFL over the last decade.”
For now, the Dolphins have essentially gained a 2023 49ers first-round pick and a 49ers compensatory pick after the third round in 2022 in exchange for moving from third to 12th to sixth. The Eagles now own Miami’s first-rounder in 2022, while the Dolphins own the 49ers’ first-rounder in 2022.
A move from six to Denver’s spot at nine, Dallas at 10 or the Giants at 11 could net the Dolphins either two second-rounders or a second or third. Extracting another 2023 first-rounder — instead of second- or third-round picks in that scenario — would be a home run.
I wouldn’t do it if there’s any chance Pitts or Chase is on the board at six — something Miami cannot possibly know yet.
A Chase/Pitts choice would be like choosing between filet mignon and lobster. You probably can’t go wrong. But it would be mildly surprising if both — not one, but both — are on the board at six.
ESPN’s Ryan Clark, the former NFL safety, put it this way:
“I’m going to think about being a safety and then you think about the range Kyle Pitts has. You add the height to that. In a vacuum, if these guys are racing for a gold medal, you say Ja’Marr Chase wins. Now you have to add the height. You have to add the catch radius.
“You have to add the weight and you put all these things together and you realize what type of matchup problem Kyle Pitts is. And you put him outside and now he’s matched up on a corner. He has a bigger body. He’s too fast for in-line linebackers, too quick in and out of cuts. He’s such a matchup problem.
“It’s good to have a Ja’Marr Chase who you don’t have to scheme up to win. But it’s also great to have a Kyle Pitts where you get to sit in your office on Monday night, when you’re putting your game plan together, where you [say], ‘You know what, if I put him out here, he’s too big for this corner.
“If I keep him in-line, he’s too good for this linebacker. If I put him at No. 3, and we have a slot outside of him, he’s going to get matched up on the nickel corner or the dime safety and he can meet him. That’s what you have when you have Kyle Pitts. The tantalizing thing about Kyle Pitts is the elite skill package.”
What about Pitts as a blocker?
“I saw him against Tennessee, Alabama last two games of the year,” ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller said. “He’s a pretty serviceable blocker. He loses slowly. He can hold his ground. It’s not like he’s a terrible blocker. He will hold his ground, contain a little bit.”
▪ If the Dolphins get Pitts, there’s a strong argument to be made (both ways) for keeping Mike Gesicki or trading him.
The argument to trade him: There’s position duplication with Pitts… Miami could save cap space by trading Gesicki for a draft pick instead of paying Gesicki $7 million to $10 million annually in free agency next spring… And because neither Gesicki nor Pitts is a great blocker, that could reduce the viability of two tight-end sets with those two.
The argument to keep Gesicki with Pitts: As Pro Football Focus’ Andrew Erickson noted in this excellent piece, “there’s a clear path for both Gesicki and Pitts to be used without extended overlap. Gesicki has been a glorified slot receiver since 2019, playing roughly 70% of his snaps lined up inside. Pitts played just 26.7% of his snaps from the slot in his final year at Florida, which was the lowest rate of any college tight end with at least 60 slot snaps.”
And Erickson noted that “in 2018 — arguably Tua [Tagovailoa’s] best season at Alabama — Tagovailoa played alongside future second-round TE Irv Smith Jr.. [and] Smith’s passer rating generated when targeted (157.7, which includes passes not thrown by Tua) ranks No. 1 among all college tight ends since 2018. Pitts’ 146.2 passer rating generated when targeted in 2020 ranks second.”
What’s more, as Erickson noted, Tagovailoa had a 102.5 passer rating with two tight ends and one running back on the field as a Dolphins rookie, compared with 79.8 otherwise.
So Tagovailoa knows how to maximize tight ends. Former tight ends coach George Godsey, the new co-offensive coordinator, knows how to develop and maximize tight ends. The question is whether keeping Gesicki to play with Pitts would be the best use of resources and cap space in 2022 and beyond.
▪ Couple other notes from Erickson in that piece, which we recommend: Tagovailoa’s receivers dropped 8.8 percent of his passes, fifth most in the league. And Dolphins receivers created at least one step of separation on just 58 percent of his throws, tied for third least behind Jalen Hurts and Sam Darnold.
This story was originally published April 20, 2021 at 3:54 PM.
