Lots of reason for hope — but also a concern — on UM football. And a scout weighs in
There are plenty of reasons to be encouraged about the direction of the University of Miami football program, from the offensive improvement under ace coordinator Rhett Lashlee; to Manny Diaz’s acumen in navigating the transfer portal and snagging a very strong 2021 recruiting class; to D’Eriq King’s brilliance as a dual threat quarterback; to the promising outlook at that position after King departs (with Tyler Van Dyke and Jake Garcia waiting in the wings).
But here’s what gives me pause when mulling whether this team can be a top 15 program in 2021 compared to say, a fringe top 25 program:
The lack of established impact players at linebacker and defensive end, the very limited number of genuinely elite established college players overall (beyond King) and the dearth of players who tantalize NFL scouts and executives. The elite college programs have the former two of those and often all three.
Now let’s be clear: UM — ranked 14th in the preseason AP poll and 16th in the coach’s poll — has an elite college player at the most important position (quarterback) and that’s a big deal. But is there enough premier game-ready talent elsewhere on the roster to make this a top 12 team? That’s dubious.
A longtime NFL scout with front-office experience, who is respected in the industry, told me recently that among UM players who could turn pro next spring, the only two whose tape and NFL measurables would warrant a selection in the first half of the draft, in his view, are left tackle Zion Nelson (if he continues to improve) and safety Bubba Bolden.
But the scout said he has some doubts about Bolden, believing he has been “overhyped” and expressing concern about the unevenness in his play in 2020. (To his credit, Bolden has acknowledged the need to improve as one reason he returned for 2021.)
That scout saw Bolden as a player with the potential to rise to late in the second day of the draft if he performs more consistently this year. For now, he called Bolden a mid third-day pick (fifth-round range).
What about King?
“I just don’t see him making an NFL team as a quarterback,” the scout said. “Don’t tell me about Kyler Murray making it. King is two inches shorter than Murray, not nearly the athlete Murray is. With his age and size and the ACL, that might make him undraftable.” King turns 24 next week.
That scout would like to see King work as a slot receiver in NFL workouts next spring and try to make an NFL team as a multipurpose weapon, like former Navy quarterback Malcolm Perry did as a seventh-rounder with the Dolphins last season.
“King is a better athlete than Perry, has a much better change of direction,” the scout said.
What about receivers Mike Harley Jr. and Charleston Rambo? “Maybe late-round guys,” the scout said. “That’s a dime a dozen position. I have Rambo ahead of Harley.”
That scout said every other 2022 draft-eligible UM prospect — including guard Navaughn Donaldson, defensive tackle Jon Ford, running back Cam’Ron Harris, tight end Will Mallory, defensive end Deandre Johnson and striker Amari Carter — currently project as late-round picks at best.
The scout added that these players obviously can help themselves if they play well and test well during the next 10 months.
But aside from potentially Nelson, the odds are against any other Cane being selected on the first two days of the 2022 draft. All of the elite programs consistently have multiple early round picks.
ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. rated the top 10 prospects who will be draft-eligible at every position and has only three Canes in all of his lists: Nelson as the fifth-best offensive tackle (but not a first-rounder), Bolden as the eighth-best safety and punter Lou Hedley as seventh best among punters and kickers.
By comparison, Kiper has 14 Alabama players in his top 10 at every position. How can the Canes compete with that type of talent in the Sept. 4 opener in Atlanta?
Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus rated the top 10 players returning at every position in college football, noting “this has nothing to do with pro potential.”
PFF rated only one Hurricane in the top 10 at his position: King was ranked the third-best returning college quarterback, behind Oklahoma’s Spencer Rattler and North Carolina’s Sam Howell.
There’s such a subjective nature to all of this. ESPN’s Todd McShay rates UM’s Nelson a top-five pick (several others don’t have him in the first round at all), but PFF doesn’t have Nelson among its top 10 returning offensive tackles.
But it’s noteworthy — and alarming — that not a single Cane is first team all-ACC at any position in PFF’s preseason rankings. That speaks to the lack of experienced frontline talent at some positions, particularly in the defensive front seven.
Yes, there are lots of reasons for hope with this Canes program, especially the upside of the young receivers and the long-term outlook at quarterback and UM’s ability to snag elite prospects at defensive tackle (Leonard Taylor) and safety (James Williams) in the past two recruiting classes, plus strong young talent at running back and tight end.
This team will score.
But an OK-but-not great front seven and the lack of experienced elite talent anywhere beyond King — in other words, the type of players that are clearly better than the guys they’re usually lining up against — should be factored into any analysis of what these 2021 Canes can become.
And that should have Canes fans realistic about expectations for this team; if Miami can make the ACC title game, it would be a pleasant surprise, despite King’s greatness. Remember, the Canes lost their best defender from a team that was bludgeoned by Coastal rival North Carolina, which hosts UM on Oct. 16.
Losses to Alabama and UNC means UM would need to win every other game to get to 10 wins before a bowl game. And to go 10-0 in those other games, King’s supporting cast would need to be better than the aforementioned talent evaluator believes to be the case.
This story was originally published August 16, 2021 at 3:51 PM.
