How the Oladipo trade expands the Miami Heat’s flexibility, options this summer
More notes, fallout on the Heat’s acquisitions of Victor Oladipo and Nemanja Bjelica:
▪ One of the upshots of the Oladipo deal, besides injecting a 28-year-old former All-Star and All-NBA defender into the lineup, is the flexibility it gives the Heat this summer because Miami kept all of its young assets (to either keep or use in future trades) and can exceed the salary cap to retain whomever it wants on this roster.
If Oladipo plays well the remainder of the season, and Miami opts to re-sign him this summer, the Heat would have the salary-cap capacity to keep all its key pieces together in 2021-22 if the remainder of the season justifies that. That — plus the ability to evaluate Oladipo for a few months — are major benefits of adding him before the trade deadline.
Here’s one way the Heat can now keep whatever players it wants from this group, legally surpass the salary cap and avoid any tax bill:
Miami could decline Goran Dragic’s $19.4 team option for 2021-22 with the promise that it would instead give him its full $10.2 million midlevel exception for teams operating over the cap but not at the tax.
In that scenario, the Heat would have Jimmy Butler ($36 million), Bam Adebayo ($28.1 million), Tyler Herro ($4 million), Precious Achiuwa ($2.7 million) and KZ Okpala ($1.8 million) and the final year of Ryan Anderson $5.2 million cut-and-stretch hit. That’s $77.8 million.
The Heat then, hypothetically, could give restricted free agent Duncan Robinson a contract starting at $15 million a year, Oladipo a deal starting at $25 million and Dragic $10 million for one year, pushing the team’s 2021-22 commitments to $127.8 million — short of the projected $136.6 million tax line that the Heat generally tries to avoid. Keeping restricted free agent Kendrick Nunn in this scenario would be trickier.
The Heat would still need to address its power rotation in that scenario, by flipping one of its current players, perhaps impending restricted free agents Robinson or Kendrick Nunn in sign-and-trades or Herro (for a top power forward) or dealing Achiuwa for a big with more range. (The Heat hopes Achiuwa can eventually play alongside Adebayo.)
Re-signing Bjelica and/or Trevor Ariza for very modest money also would be an option.
If Oladipo plays well enough to command a first-year max salary ($33.7 million), keeping Dragic and Robinson — as opposed to one of the two — becomes more difficult if Miami wants to avoid the tax. But my strong sense is that if Oladipo plays well — and the Heat wants to keep him — he would give the Heat a bit of a hometown discount.
Let’s be clear: The fact there are realistic ways to keep this roster together next season doesn’t necessarily mean the Heat should do that; that decision should not and will not be made until the season plays out. This team obviously must play substantially better than it has during this ongoing six-game losing streak.
But this deal gives the Heat the ability to keep this group together if it’s warranted, and the fact that the Heat could add a 2018 third-team All-NBA player without sacrificing a single one of its young assets was impressive.
What’s more, the Heat and its medical staff can now get a true read on Olapido’s health — 26 months after sustaining a ruptured quad tendon in his right knee — before deciding whether to make a multiyear commitment to him this summer.
“The Miami Heat won the NBA trade deadline acquiring Victor Oladipo and Nemanja Bjelica,” Magic Johnson tweeted.
▪ If the Heat opts not to re-sign Oladipo, another strong option this summer is declining the Dragic team option and using cap space ($23 million to $28 million) to sign Toronto free agent Kyle Lowry, a Heat target up until the trade deadline. (The Heat ultimately declined to trade Herro in a Lowry trade.)
Because of Robinson’s small Heat cap hit, Miami still could keep him in that scenario if Lowry accepts a deal starting in the $25 million range.
Keeping Dragic would be trickier under those circumstances, because the salary cap exception given to teams that use cap space is only $5.3 million, about half of the exception money given to teams operating over the cap but not above the tax line.
And in this Lowry scenario, the Heat still would need to figure out a long-term plan at power forward.
And if the Heat wanted to operate as an over-the-cap team, there would be a way to re-sign Oladipo (using his Bird Rights to exceed the cap) and do a sign-and-trade for Lowry if Lowry pushes for one and if the Raptors are willing to take, say, Dragic, Achiuwa and a sign-and-trade involving Kendrick Nunn.
So that would be a way to have a 2021-22 core of Butler, Adebayo, Lowry, Oladipo, Robinson and Herro, with very little left to spend (minimum contracts) because sign-and-trades leave teams hard capped ($6 million above the tax line). And Lowry and Oladipo and Robinson might each need to take slightly less that what they could command otherwise to pull off this intriguing scenario.
Of course, if Kawhi Leonard surprisingly decides to leave the Clippers, Miami would not have the cap space to sign him outright but could acquire him by executing a sign-and-trade (a long shot, to be sure, even though Leonard initially recruited Butler to join him with the Clippers).
Among other potential unrestricted free agents this summer: Demar DeRozan, Spencer Dinwiddie, Lou Williams, Kelly Oubre, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jrue Holiday, J.J. Redick, Evan Fournier, Mike Conley, Richaun Holmes, Rudy Gay and Norman Powell. The top restricted free agents: John Collins and Lauri Markkanen.
And there’s another possibility that has interested the Heat for years: Trading for Bradley Beal if he and the Wizards agree to that this summer. (Beal has not asked for a trade and the Wizards are not interested in dealing him at this time.)
Miami has maintained all of its young player assets to use in a Beal trade and could give Washington first-round picks in 2025 and 2027, provided OKC allows the Heat to lift protections on the Heat 2023 first-rounder that is owned by the Thunder.
Here’s part 1 of the series on what the Heat is getting with its two new players.
This story was originally published March 29, 2021 at 2:19 PM.
