The free agency factor in play in Heat’s talks for Lowry, others. And where things stand
An eight-pack of Heat notes on a Tuesday, as Miami’s pursuit of Toronto point guard Kyle Lowry continues:
▪ In many ways for the Heat, the trade deadline is as much about getting an early jump on free agency as strengthening the roster for a playoff run in the months ahead.
Of the top half dozen unrestricted free agents this summer, at least three — Lowry, Houston’s Victor Oladipo and Brooklyn’s Spencer Dinwiddie (likely out for the year after knee surgery) — are strong candidates to be dealt before Thursday’s trade deadline.
Beyond Heat interest in the six-time All Star Lowry (confirmed by multiple sources), The Athletic’s David Aldridge reported Tuesday that the Heat also has interest in Oladipo, who is very much available and would love to play for the Heat, according to a source close to him.
SNY-NY previously reported Heat interest in Dinwiddie, who is expected to decline a $12.3 million player option for 2021-22.
The impending free agent acquired by Miami — if one is acquired — would come here with the Heat expecting such a long-term commitment this summer. The Heat would be acquiring any of these players’ Bird Rights, allowing Miami to surpass the salary cap to sign him this summer.
Lowry would not immediately be eligible for an extension, though the sides could come to a wink-wink unwritten understanding on future terms of a new contract. For those wondering why Andre Iguodala was eligible for an extension from the Heat at the time of his acquisition 13 months ago, and Lowry isn’t, here’s the difference:
Iguodala had met the two-year anniversary requirement from the time he signed his extension and was on a contract that was for two-plus years. Lowry is on a one-year extension and signed it in October 2019, short of the two-year anniversary requirement. Anyway....
By acquiring an impending free agent now, the Heat this summer would have the ability (by operating as an “over the cap” team) to pay that player as much as max money (if it chooses) and to retain every player left on the roster who isn’t traded, including Goran Dragic - who has a $19 million team option — though the Heat would need to be careful to avoid a big luxury tax bill.
If Miami didn’t trade for Lowry or Oladipo or Dinwiddie and simply used cap space to sign any of them this summer, there wouldn’t be cap room to retain Dragic. The Heat could clear out $27 million in space as a starting point for a contract for any outside free agent in this scenario.
As of Tuesday morning, Lowry hadn’t asked for a trade but remained curious about interest in him and wasn’t ruling anything out, according to a league source. Toronto management has made him aware that there have been conversations with other teams. The Heat, Philadelphia and the Clippers are among the teams that have shown interest.
The source said Lowry — who turns 35 on Thursday — would have interest in Miami, but that Lowry hasn’t asked to be traded to Miami or anywhere.
“The Lowry thing is this,” ESPN’s Brian Windhorst said on his podcast. “I was talking to a GM this morning and he basically described it as this: ‘Kyle Lowry’s free agency is happening right now.’ The expectation is that Kyle Lowry will have a new contract by the end of this week. It is either going to be to stay in Toronto, whether it’s signed or an understanding that is going to happen. It’s going to be Miami or Philadelphia. Those are the three options that the expectation is out there.”
▪ Heat president Pat Riley is a big advocate of pursuing Lowry, according to a source in touch with the organization. And some other members of the basketball staff believe he can help.
Riley was also the driving force behind the earlier pursuit of James Harden, an effort that ultimately fell short because of the Heat’s lack of assets.
And now Riley is all in on Lowry, which is understandable because he would fill a need for a genuine starting point guard, while upgrading the Heat’s shooting and giving the team a legitimate third All Star. He’s averaging 17.6 points, 7.4 assists and 5.6 rebounds.
Players are shooting 49 percent against Lowry (those players shoot 45.6 percent overall) but he has traditionally been considered a good defender.
▪ It would be surprising if the Heat traded Tyler Herro in a deal for Lowry, though it’s possible the Heat’s reluctance to trade Herro could change if the deal is expanded to include Norman Powell.
Kendrick Nunn’s name has come up in trade talks in the past two weeks, according to a team that has spoken to Miami.
But Nunn and cap fillers very likely wouldn’t be enough to land Lowry. If Herro isn’t in the deal, Duncan Robinson likely would need to be.
Even though Robinson’s cap hit will be modest this summer regardless of what Miami pays him ($4.7 million), his Heat cap hit would be his full salary in subsequent years of his new contract, beginning in 2022-23.
With Robinson likely to command a contract in the $12 million to $18 million a year range this offseason, that type of commitment would make it more challenging — though far from impossible — for Miami to be a player in 2022 free agency, when Harden, Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal could all become unrestricted free agents.
Though his three-point shooting percentage has declined from exceptional (44.6) to good (38.2), Robinson is a favorite of the staff because of his intelligence, ability to spread the floor and the fact that teams game plan against him, which theoretically should open up opportunities for others. They admire how he has worked to improve his game.
So if Robinson is traded, it wouldn’t be because the Heat doesn’t want him, but the value of the asset received in return.
▪ If Herro isn’t in the package, Philadelphia could top any Heat offer for Lowry with a package including a 2021 first-round pick and young players Tyrese Maxey and Matisse Thybulle.
The challenge for the 76ers would be coming up with matching money for cap purposes; Danny Green ($15.4 million) would be a start but the 76ers would need to add at least $8 million more in the deal.
Such an offer (with that first-round pick and two young players) would trump any hypothetical Heat offer of Andre Iguodala, Kelly Olynyk and impending restricted free agents Robinson and Nunn. Perhaps Precious Achiuwa’s inclusion could change that.
▪ The Heat’s $7.5 million trade exception expired Monday night, but there was no Heat urgency to use it to acquire Sacramento power forward Nemanja Bjelica because of a belief that power forward could be addressed in the buyout market if Miami deals Olynyk.
There remains strong interest in LaMarcus Aldridge if he’s bought out, even more so if Olynyk is dealt.
▪ The Heat has the fourth-worst three-point percentage in the NBA, and that’s one of several reasons why Lowry is the Heat’s top target.
Lowry (39.5 percent on threes this season, 36.7 career) is the only above average three-point shooter among the top impending free agents on the market. Oladipo is shooting just 33.3 percent on threes this season and 34.8 in his career.
Despite that, Oladipo could hold appeal — if the trade price is very modest — because he’s still young (28), still a high volume scorer (20.8) and wants to be here. But Miami doesn’t want to relinquish attractive pieces for him.
Dinwiddie is a career 31.8 percent three point shooter. Yahoo reports the Heat has discussed trading Avery Bradley, Maurice Harkless and Nunn for Dinwiddie.
▪ Don’t underestimate Butler’s role in stars wanting to come here. Butler’s presence on the team significantly increased Harden’s interest in the Heat, according to a source. Lowry and Butler are friends, one factor which has put Miami very high on Lowry’s preferred destinations if Lowry ultimately decides he wants to be traded.
▪ After playing in his first two NBA games in a year, newly acquired Heat forward Trevor Ariza said he feels fine physically but admitted the “rhythm was a little bit off.”
“That comes from not practicing, getting enough practice time,” Ariza said in advance of Tuesday night’s game against the Phoenix Suns at AmericanAirlines Arena. “But I feel like the more film I watch, the more comfortable I’m getting, the more I’m understanding what to do.”
Ariza, 35, was traded to the Heat last week, and he has been seeking advice from his new teammates to help fast-track his transition. Veteran Andre Iguodala has been especially helpful since he’s used in a similar role as a small-ball power forward.
“Andre is definitely somebody who I’ve been asking a lot of questions as far as about how everything goes here,” Ariza said. “He has definitely kept me updated on things that work, things that haven’t worked for him. I just try to implement it into what I’m doing.”
Ariza said adjusting to the Heat’s dribble-handoff and pick-and-roll heavy offense has been a bit of an adjustment.
“But I played in a triangle under Phil Jackson,” he noted. “You can catch onto anything if you can play in the triangle. So it’s just a little bit of studying, a little bit more understanding, getting familiar with the personnel.”
As far as his first impressions of Heat culture, Ariza said “they make sure that you’re here to work and you’re here to do your job.”
This story was originally published March 23, 2021 at 12:42 PM.
