Feedback on some Marlins’ prospects, including Bleday, Harrison. And the catcher problem
Feedback on some of the Miami Marlins’ prospects:
▪ Outfielder JJ Bleday: Impressed by his polish and maturity as a hitter and his strong arm in right field, the Marlins are cautiously optimistic that he can move quickly through their system.
Even though he hasn’t played above Class A Jupiter, the Marlins won’t be shocked if he’s with the big-league team by late summer.
If the Marlins aren’t in wild-card contention at the trade deadline, they could deal left fielder Corey Dickerson — who’s in the second year of a two-year contract — and move Adam Duvall to left field and insert Bleday in right field if he hits minor league pitching as well as the team expects this season.
Bleday, the fourth overall pick in the 2019 Draft, might begin the season at Double A Pensacola.
Besides homering in Miami’s first game of the spring, Bleday made a fantastic play in Tuesday’s game, fielding a flyball from the warning track in right field and firing an almost perfect throw to Garrett Cooper to double up the Cardinals’ Max Moroff.
Bleday hit .257 with three homers and 19 RBI in 38 games in 2019 at Jupiter.
▪ Outfielder Monte Harrison: The Marlins certainly haven’t given up hope that he can become a contributing big-league outfielder.
But they privately acknowledge that the swing still needs considerable work after striking out 26 times in 51 plate appearances for the Marlins in 2020.
They want to see Harrison shorten his swing and take a better approach at the plate with the goal of making better contact. They believe his speed and defense are big-league ready, but his bat isn’t. That’s why the team never projected him to be a key part of their 2021 team.
▪ Second basemen Jazz Chisholm and Isan Diaz: The thinking is Chisholm has a higher ceiling, but this battle could go down to the final days of spring. Diaz has looked very good defensively so far, but Chisholm has the only hit so far among them in a handful of at-bats (a home run). We make Chisholm the favorite if it’s close.
The Marlins have loved Chisholm since CEO Derek Jeter set eyes on him in the Arizona Fall League a few years ago, when Chisholm was a Diamondbacks prospect.
Jeter mentioned him to Marlins director of player development and scouting director Gary Denbo at the time, and Miami eventually acquired him for pitcher Zac Gallen, who has a 5-5 record and 2.80 ERA in 20 starts for the Diamondbacks.
Diaz has much to prove after an odd 2020 season in which he opted out of playing due to COVID-19, changed his mind, sustained an injury upon returning, decided to play winter ball in Puerto Rico and then opted out of that due to COVID-19.
▪ Victor Victor Mesa: At this point, some in the organization will be pleasantly surprised if the ballyhooed 2018 international signing becomes anything close to what the team hoped when the Marlins signed him. The work ethic hasn’t been as strong as Miami would have hoped and he remains a work in progress offensively.
He has a .235 average in 503 minor-league plate appearances, including .178 in 113 plate appearances at Double A Jacksonville. He doesn’t walk much, either; he has 22 minor league walks. And he’s already 24.
The good news: He’s 18 of 20 on steals and is fine defensively in center field.
Some scouts consider his brother, Victor Jr., the better prospect. He’s only 19 and hit .284 in rookie league for the Marlins in 2019.
Victor Victor signed for $5.25 million, his younger brother for $1 million.
▪ A few others: Asked what prospects look different to him, manager Don Mattingly mentioned lefty Trevor Rogers (“this skinny 6-6 body looks like it’s filling out”), lefty Braxon Garrett (“more physical”); and outfielder Connor Scott (“I hadn’t seen him in a couple years. Still a long, lean kid but more strength”).
GONZALEZ ADDITION
The Marlins hope that lefty Gio Gonzalez — added on a minor-league contract on Wednesday — can resemble the pitcher who won 89 games between 2012 and 2018 (with an ERA only twice above 3.79) than the one who struggled in 12 appearances for the White Sox last season.
Gonzalez chose the Marlins over non-roster invitations from several other teams. The Marlins aren’t quite sure what to expect but thought it was worth a flier. In a best-case scenario, he builds up his arm strength at the Marlins’ alternate site and eventually becomes an option for a back-end rotation spot.
Gonzalez, who was born in Hialeah, allowed 59 baserunners in 32 1/3 innings last season for Chicago, making four starts. But the 35-year-old he did have 34 strikeouts and his ERA — while bloated at 4.83 — wasn’t horrific. He missed time with a right groin strain.
Gonzalez was better in 19 games for the Brewers in 2019 (3.50 ERA) but allowed 113 baserunners in 87 1/3 innings.
Batters hit .234 off him in 2019 but .305 off him in 2020.
CATCHER CONUNDRUM
The Marlins are hoping Jorge Alfaro can make dramatic improvements because there isn’t an appealing fallback plan, at least offensively.
Manager Don Mattingly has praised Alfaro for working this offseason on various parts of his game, including his interaction with the pitching staff — a shortcoming that contributed to his benching in postseason.
According to two sources, multiple pitchers preferred throwing to Chad Wallach last season, and Alfaro must improve his feel for the game.
The Marlins have interest in selecting a catcher in June’s draft, potentially a college catcher. They know the position must be addressed long-term, especially because it’s unclear if top catching prospect Will Banfield will be able to hit big-league pitching.
Banfield, a skilled defender, is a career .209 hitter in two seasons in the low minors, with 12 homers and 73 RBI in 579 plate appearances.
Besides Wallach, the other fallback catching option internally this season is veteran Sandy Leon. But Wallach is a career .209 hitter, Leon .216. So there isn’t the expectation of much offense from either.
COACH IMPRESSES
Keep an eye on bench coach and hitting coordinator James Rowson, who has impressed everyone in the organization and is well regarded in baseball.
According to a source, Rowson was runner-up for the Red Sox manager’s job, which went to Alex Cora this offseason.
The source said it’s a good bet that Rowson will be a big-league manager within two years.
Outfielder Lewis Brinson has praised Rowson for being instrumental in his improvement at the plate. Marlins people believe Rowson also made a positive impact in the team’s culture change last season.
After hiring Rowson before the 2020 season, the Marlins went from 25th to 17th in batting average and 29th to 21st in runs.
Mattingly, who guided the Marlins to a surprising playoff appearance in 2020 and is well regarded inside the organization, obviously isn’t in jeopardy, nor should he be.
But if the Marlins decided to make a change in the coming years, Rowson would receive consideration if he hasn’t become a big-league manager by that point.
