The catcher the Marlins tried to get, a Dickerson dilemma and background on closer search
Perhaps Jorge Alfaro will improve significantly after a poor 2020 season and an unfortunate start to 2021. But the Marlins know the catching position must be upgraded and quietly have made attempts to do that in recent months.
Besides pursuing Cubs catcher Willson Contreras in trade talks this past offseason, the Marlins also attempted to snag Yermin Mercedes from the Chicago White Sox in recent months, according to a source.
The source described the Marlins’ efforts as “aggressive.”
Mercedes, 28, was a fairly obscure prospect until the past week, when a player who entered the season with one career MLB at-bat won the American League Player of the Week award.
Mercedes entered last weekend with an AL-high 15 hits. Last week, he became the first player in White Sox history to collect five hits in his first major-league start. The following day, Mercedes had hits in his first three at bats, becoming the first player since at least 1900 to begin a season with eight straight hits.
He entered Tuesday with 16 hits in 32 at-bats, giving him an AL-leading .500 batting average.
The Marlins would be fortunate if Louisville catcher Henry Davis is available when they pick 16th in this summer’s amateur draft, but that appears unlikely. Davis is hitting .389 with eight homers and 32 RBI in 30 games.
Barring a significant jump from Alfaro, the Marlins likely will need to fill catcher this winter either through trade or free agency.
Catchers eligible for free agency after this season include Atlanta’s Travis D’Arnaud (.251, 16 homers, 69 RBI in 2019 and .321, 9, 34 in 44 games last season), St. Louis’ Yadier Molina (still productive but 38), Detroit’s Wilson Ramos (.288, 14, 73 in 2019 and .239, 5, 15 in 49 games last season) and Washington’s Yan Gomes (.284 in 30 games last season).
Boston has a $7 million team option on Christian Vazquez, but that seems likely to be exercised. The Giants have a $22 million option on All-Star Buster Posey, who is still productive but no longer elite at 34. Players whose options figure to be declined, barring strong 2021 seasons, include Cincinnati’s Tucker Barnhart, whose batting average dropped significantly in 2019 and 2020.
Alfaro, making $2 million this season, has two more years of arbitration eligibility.
He’s batting .214 (3 for 14) and has missed the past five games with tightness in his left hamstring. He worked this offseason to improve his skills as a game-caller and managing a pitching staff, but it’s too soon to know if that shortcoming has improved substantially. And the offense declined to the point last season (.226, three homers, 16 RBI, .280 on-base percentage) that it no longer compensated for the weaknesses in his game.
DICKERSON’S PLIGHT
Outfielder Corey Dickerson is off to a decent start (.267, four doubles) but the two-year, $17.5 million investment hasn’t produced the expected returns.
As a lead-off batter, Dickerson’s on-base percentage is .333 in 10 games; as perspective, that would have ranked 16th among qualifying leadoff hitters in 2020. That .333 is a jump from his .311 on-base percentage hitting in different spots in the order last year. He had a .341 on-base average in 2019 before joining the Marlins after that season.
Dickerson hasn’t hit a home run this season and has an OPS of .701 in 62 games since signing with the Marlins.
The Marlins had hoped he would produce at levels similar to his All-Star season with Tampa Bay in 2017, when he hit .282 with 27 homers and 62 RBI.
His .257 average as a Marlin is well below his .282 career batting average. His exit velocity is in the 12th percentile of all of baseball, which is very low.
He hit .212 against left-handers last season (11 for 52) and 2 for 4 this season, and Don Mattingly must decide whether he continues to warrant regular at-bats against lefties.
In his defense, Dickerson had a death in the family last year and that might have affected his production. He’s considered a strong locker room presence.
If the Marlins are out of contention at the trade deadline and try to deal his expiring contract, Miami might need to pay a share of the prorated amount remaining on his $9.5 million 2021 salary, and it’s doubtful he would snag anything more than a fringe prospect in a trade.
Keep in mind that the Marlins tried to trade Starlin Castro at the trade deadline in 2019 and couldn’t find a suitor. This could be a similar situation unless a contender has multiple outfield injuries.
Either way, Dickerson appears unlikely to return to the Marlins in 2022.
If Dickerson is traded, Adam Duvall likely would move from right field to left field. Right field could then be shared among Garrett Cooper (primarily), Lewis Brinson (now at the alternate site because Miami needed a starting pitcher), Magneuris Sierra and perhaps Monte Harrison or JJ Bleday if either thrives against minor-league pitching this season, with the minor-league season set to start on May 1.
(The Harrison and Bleday scenarios would more likely come into play if the team is out of contention later in the season. There are some Marlins people who believe Bleday could be ready by late summer, but a Marlins source acknowledged Harrison has a lot to prove).
As noted here, the Marlins want to be careful about how much they play Cooper in right field because of concerns that would increase his chance of injury. But Cooper would need to be the primary right fielder if Dickerson is dealt without a big-league ready outfielder coming back in return.
Though Dickerson hasn’t been awful as a Marlin, the $9.5 million salary — more than one-fifth of the team’s total 2021 payroll — is hurtful because the Marlins need to get excellent bang for their buck when they make moderately pricey splashes in the free agent market.
CLOSER UPDATE
The Anthony Bass closer experiment hasn’t worked out so far, but Miami would have been in worse shape if they had signed Trevor Rosenthal, who signed a one-year, $11 million deal with Oakland earlier this year and is now out three months.
Bass is making only $1 million this season but is due a guaranteed $3 million in 2022, with a $3 million club option in 2023 (with a $1 million buyout).
What’s more, his salary in 2022 would increase by $150,000 each if he finishes 30, 35, 40 or 45 games this season, and then by another $250,000 for 50 games finished. Barring injuries to Yimi Garcia or Dylan Floro, it now appears unlikely Bass will reach those thresholds.
So if Bass’ performance wasn’t enough to warrant the move to Garcia as closer, there are financial incentives, too. (To be clear, finances didn’t impact Bass losing his closer’s job.)
Garcia converted his first save chance and got the win in Monday’s 10-inning win in Atlanta. The job appears to be his for now, though Floro could get some chances.
In retrospect, the Marlins should have exercised Brandon Kintzler’s $4 million team option for 2021 or offered more than they did when they tried to sign him in February.
According to a source close to the team, the Marlins went back to Kintzler in February and offered him a contract that included $1 million guaranteed in 2021 and a $3 million team option for 2022, which included a $1 million buyout if the Marlins declined that option.
So Kintzler would have been guaranteed $2 million over two years, essentially.
He instead accepted a non-roster invitation (and thus non-guaranteed money) from the Phillies, made the team and definitely will earn $3 million, with incentives that could push the deal to $4 million. So Kintzler gambled on himself and it paid off. He has allowed one earned run in 3 2/3 innings.
Kintzler went 12 for 14 on save chances for the Marlins last season.
The Marlins also erred by releasing Ryne Stanek, who signed for $1.1 million on a one-year deal with Houston and has allowed just one hit and one run in his first six innings for the Astros.
Please follow Herald senior baseball correspondent Craig Mish on Twitter at @CraigMish and Miami Herald sports writer/columnist Barry Jackson at @flasportsbuzz.
This story was originally published April 13, 2021 at 11:44 AM.
