Why the Miami Dolphins are affected by Deshaun Watson timing variable more than most
Houston quarterback Deshaun Watson wants to be traded, and the Texans remain adamantly opposed to doing so, creating a standoff that could stretch for months or longer.
And there’s perhaps no team impacted more by the timing of that standoff than the Miami Dolphins.
If the Texans agree to trade Watson before the start of the April 29 NFL Draft, the Dolphins have as good a shot as any team because of their draft inventory, including picks 3, 18, 36 and 50.
Only two other teams, the Jaguars and Jets, could offer as attractive a package built around 2021 early round draft picks.
The Jets have the second, 23rd and 34th picks in the first two rounds. The Jaguars pick first, 25th, 33rd and 46th, though it’s considered unlikely that Jacksonville would deal presumptive first overall pick Trevor Lawrence, the Clemson quarterback, for Watson.
But if the Texans decide to call Watson’s bluff for many months — and dare him not to report to training camp or for the season opener — then the Dolphins’ chances of landing Watson drop dramatically.
Here’s why: If Watson is still on the Texans after the draft, Miami would lack the volume of draft currency to outbid other teams if Houston decides to deal him in August, September or next spring.
Whereas the Dolphins have only their own first-round pick in 2022, the Jets have two first-round selections in the 2022 draft (their own and Seattle’s as a result of the Jamal Adams trade).
Detroit also has two first-rounders in 2022: their own and the Rams’ first-round pick, as a result of the Matt Stafford trade.
And if the Texans are looking for a young quarterback as part of a trade package for Watson, the Dolphins apparently wouldn’t be able to satisfy that desire as well as some other teams could. The Houston Chronicle has reported that the Texans are not interested in Tua Tagovailoa.
So the Dolphins’ only realistic chance of landing Watson would be through a treasure trove of 2021 and 2022 draft picks -—and perhaps the inclusion of a quality defensive starter.
The Dolphins conveyed to All-Pro cornerback Xavien Howard last October that they had no interest in trading him when his former representation suggested it might be a good idea, and there’s no indication that Miami’s stance has changed. Howard, off a 10-interception season, is expected to soon ask for a pay raise and then potentially could ask for a trade if the Dolphins don’t agree to a pay raise. He has four years remaining on his contract.
Meanwhile, the Texans’ decision on Watson also could impact the Dolphins’ chances of trading down slightly from third overall.
NFL Network has reported that the Carolina Panthers — who have the eighth overall pick and tried unsuccessfully to use that pick to trade for Stafford — will be among the teams most aggressive in a pursuit of Watson if he becomes available.
But if Watson isn’t made available, the Panthers’ interest in a quarterback could make them the most realistic potential suitor for Miami’s third overall pick or the Jets’ pick at No. 2.
Moving up would assure Carolina an opportunity to draft one of the quarterbacks projected to come off the board after Lawrence: BYU’s Zach Wilson or Ohio State’s Justin Fields.
Moving down from No. 3 to No. 8 could allow the Dolphins to pick up a future first-round pick.
Who else could be a potential suitor for Miami’s pick at No. 3?
Atlanta, selecting fourth, is less likely to be a suitor in the wake of NFL Network’s report that quarterback Matt Ryan is unlikely to be traded.
Cincinnati, picking fifth, isn’t considered especially likely to trade up, even though Oregon left tackle Peneii Sewell could hold great value to a Bengals team needing to improve its offensive line.
Philadelphia, expected to trade Carson Wentz, appears inclined to start Jalen Hurts in 2021, though it’s conceivable the Eagles could have interest in trading up from the sixth pick if they become enamored with Wilson or Fields during draft evaluations.
Detroit, picking seventh, appears unlikely to move up for a quarterback after acquiring Jared Goff in the Stafford trade.
Besides Carolina, the Denver Broncos — at No. 9 — also would have incentive to try to move up to No. 3 if they prefer a quarterback available at No. 3 to veteran Drew Lock.
If the Dolphins dropped to the eighth or ninth range in the first round, they would need to hope that Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith or LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase slips to that spot; the odds would seemingly be against that, though it’s not inconceivable.
If not, Miami could select Alabama receiver Jaylen Waddle, Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons or University of Florida tight end Kyle Pitts in the later part of the top 10.
Though Watson has a no-trade clause and could have a significant say in where he ends up, ESPN has reported that he’s likely to accept a trade to the majority of NFL teams.
This story was originally published February 9, 2021 at 3:00 PM.
