Texans say they aren’t interested in Watson trade. What helps, hurts Miami if that changes
In the wake of Deshaun Watson’s trade request, the Houston Texans said Friday that they have no interest in trading the star quarterback who reportedly has interest in the Dolphins and some other teams.
“I just want to reiterate our commitment to Deshaun Watson; we have no interest in trading the player,” Texans general manager Nick Caserio said during a news conference to introduce David Culley, the team’s new head coach.
“We have a great plan and vision for [Watson],” Caserio said. “We look forward to spending more time with him.”
Caserio declined to say if he has spoken with Watson; ESPN has said he hasn’t returned the calls of anyone in Houston management.
But Caserio also said of Watson: “We’re going to do the right thing by people because that’s what we believe in.”
Culley made clear he expects to be coaching Watson: “He is a Houston Texan. I want him to be a Houston Texan. The reason I’m in this position today is because I know he’s going to be a Houston Texan.”
ESPN has reported that Watson is determined to leave Houston. But the Texans could call his bluff and see if he’s willing to sit out indefinitely — and face fines and no salary.
Watson is under contract through 2025. He’s set to earn $10.5 million in base salary in 2021, $35 million, $20 million, $32 million and $32 million in the following four seasons.
Holding out, or even potentially retiring, to force the Texans to deal him would come at a considerable cost, including $500,000 for missed workouts, upwards of $3 million for missed preseason/training camp and more than a half million dollars per week of the regular season, according to Over The Cap. Plus, if he retires, the Texans could go after most of his $27 million signing bonus.
But if the Texans acquiesce to his trade demand, the Dolphins will have one advantage and two disadvantages.
The advantage: Aside from Jacksonville, no team had a higher volume of attractive draft picks to offer than Miami, which selects at No. 3, No. 18, No. 36 and No. 50.
The Jaguars have picks 1, 25, 33 and No. 46, but the first pick would come into play only if the Jaguars and Texans surprisingly agree to swap Watson for Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the presumptive top pick in April’s draft.
The only team close to the Dolphins and Jaguars in terms of coveted draft assets: The Jets, who pick second, 23rd (via Seattle) and 34th and have two first-rounders in 2022 (their own and Seattle’s).
So that’s the good news for Miami if the Texans change their mind and trade Watson.
But there are two factors that leave the Dolphins at a disadvantage, in the wake of ESPN’s report Thursday that Watson — who has a no-trade clause — is willing to accept a trade to many teams (including Miami), as opposed to insisting he be sent only to Miami:
▪ Factor No. 1: If the Texans want one of the top young quarterbacks in this draft (after Lawrence), they would need to move to No. 2 to assure themselves a choice of BYU’s Zach Wilson or Ohio State’s Justin Fields. That makes the Jets’ pick at No. 2 a clearly more valuable commodity than Miami’s pick at No. 3.
▪ Factor No. 2: If the Texans want a veteran quarterback who has established himself as an above-average NFL starter, there’s a decent chance they will find one elsewhere. Tua Tagovailoa might become one, but there’s not enough of a body to work to know that, and the Houston Chronicle reported the Texans aren’t interested in Tagovailoa, anyway.
It wouldn’t be surprising if a team with an above-average starting quarterback decides to offer that player and a first-round pick and perhaps a second-day pick for Watson.
What if Cleveland offered Baker Mayfield or the Raiders offered Derek Carr or the Cowboys offered Dak Prescott (whose free agency would complicate that)?
What if Arizona offered Kyler Murray, Cincinnati offered Joe Burrow or the Chargers offered Justin Herbert?
What if Atlanta offered Matt Ryan and a bunch of draft picks, including the fourth overall? (There would be major cap complications with that, and it’s dubious if Houston would want a 35-year-old starting QB, albeit a very good one.) What if Seattle surprisingly called and mentioned Russell Wilson?
Of course, none of those teams might pursue Watson. But if they did, the Dolphins would have difficulty competing with those types of offers.
And if the Texans wanted to select their favorite quarterback (not named Trevor Lawrence) in the draft, the Dolphins couldn’t guarantee Houston could get that player, either. Only the Jets, picking No. 2, could ensure Houston of that opportunity.
So what seemed like a clear bargaining chip advantage for Miami apparently isn’t that much of an advantage after all, especially with Watson reportedly opting to keep an open mind about his next destination if the Texans change their mind and trade him.
SMITH/CHASE CHATTER
What we know from Brian Flores’ media sessions at the Senior Bowl this week is that he holds Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith in high regard.
What we don’t know is what Flores and general manager Chris Grier think about LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase. And that’s every bit as important as their opinion of Smith, because both receivers are considered strong options for Miami’s pick at No. 3.
Turn on ESPN at any time, and you can find a different analyst making an impassioned case for Smith, and another making a convincing case for Chase.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky made the case for Chase this week: “I remember calling the national title game two years ago and going, ‘This is Larry Fitzgerald.’ This guy is the next Larry Fitzgerald with the body control, the contested catches, the way he runs his routes. He’s absolutely fantastic. I would take Ja’Marr.”
Among those who strongly advocate Smith to Miami: ESPN’s Todd McShay.
“If your wide receiver, DeVonta Smith from Alabama, is sitting there at No. 3, why not bring in the guy who was the most consistent weapon for [Tagovailoa] for two years? The guy that won the national championship. The guy in the biggest games that always showed up. The guy that this year, even without Tua, when Jaylen Waddle got injured, was averaging about 170 yards receiving per game.
“He’s a leader. There’s consistency there. There’s a rapport there [with Tagovailoa]. To me, that makes an awful lot of sense. Marvin Harrison didn’t have great size. He was a little lean and his lower body didn’t look the part. And he’s a Hall of Famer. And that’s exactly what DeVonta Smith is to me.
“Every week it’s 190, 220 [yards receiving]. He’s just showing up and embarrassing teams that are doubling him, that are putting bracket coverage on him. And his understanding of defensive coverages and competitiveness is what makes him special. That’s why when he steps in the league, he’s ready to go. He’s a plug and play starter and a No. 1 wide receiver in the NFL immediately.”
▪ The Dolphins and Panthers exchanged Senior Bowl teams on Friday to allow the Miami and Carolina coaching staffs to interact with the players they haven’t coached this week. The Senior Bowl typically does that.
▪ Though there has been speculation linking Buffalo Bills quarterbacks coach and former Miami Hurricanes great Ken Dorsey to the Dolphins, Miami (as ESPN noted) has not reached out to him about its vacant offensive coordinator job. According to a Dorsey associate, he would love the opportunity to be an offensive coordinator in the city where he led UM to a national championship.
Here’s my Friday Miami Hurricanes 6-pack with lots of news.
This story was originally published January 29, 2021 at 1:43 PM.
