Exploring one factor working against Heat, L.A. teams on Beal. And who that factor helps
Second of a two-part Heat-flavored series on Washington Wizards guard Bradley Beal, who interests the Heat but has not yet been made available by 3-11 Washington in trade talks. Here’s part 1.
The precedent set by the NBA’s two most recent megatrades aren’t a good sign for the Heat, because they demonstrate the value of a commodity Miami lacks — available first-round draft picks, and lots of them.
For James Harden, Brooklyn traded three future first-round picks, and agreed to four pick swaps, in addition to yielding two skilled veteran players (emerging but now ailing standout Caris LaVert and Jarrett Allen) and two other contributors (Taurean Prince and Rodions Kurucs).
For Jrue Holiday, Milwaukee traded three first-round picks (one to Denver, two to the Pelicans), two skilled rotation players (starter Eric Bledsoe, former starter George Hill) and agreed to two pick swaps with New Orleans.
So if Washington makes guard Bradley Beal — the NBA’s 27-year-old leading scorer — available at some point, the Heat faces the prospect of being outbid by others because Miami cannot trade any first-round picks in 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024.
And the Heat could trade first-rounders in 2025 and 2027 — or in 2026 — only if Oklahoma City agrees to allow Miami to unlock protections on the 2023 first-rounder due OKC. (And even though Miami would be doing OKC a favor, the Thunder wouldn’t necessarily look at it that way.)
Keep in mind that NBA rules prohibit teams from trading picks in consecutive drafts. Teams can trade first-round picks in consecutive years only after drafting a player in their slot.
The good news for the Heat is that Miami isn’t alone in lacking available first-round currency to trade.
Per ESPN, the Lakers, Clippers, Brooklyn, Portland, Detroit and Milwaukee don’t have any first-rounders available to trade.
Denver — which would seemingly have the assets to be a major threat to land Beal if he’s made available — can trade its own first-rounder in 2021 and 2027 but not any year in between, per ESPN.
Golden State and Utah cannot trade one of their first-round picks until 2026. Dallas and Phoenix can’t trade one of their first-round picks until 2027.
Philadelphia cannot trade its own first-rounders between 2025 and 2027 but could offer first-rounders in 2021 and 2023.
And keep in mind that teams cannot trade picks more than seven years in advance. The Heat could trade its 2028 first-round pick only beginning next fall.
Keep in mind that Beal’s 2022-23 player option gives him major say in where he ends up if he’s traded, because no team will give up a high volume of quality assets for a player who doesn’t want to be there.
So if the Wizards make Beal available and prioritize getting picks in return, what talented teams would have multiple first-round picks — beginning as early as the 2021 draft — to trade Washington?
Philadelphia, which could put together a package including Ben Simmons and first-round picks in 2021 and 2023.
Boston, which could offer three picks in the next six years and young players, though Washington likely would want Jaylen Brown (doubt Boston would do this) over say, Marcus Smart and Romeo Langford and Grant Williams and cap fillers.
Denver could offer first-round picks in 2021 and 2027 and Michael Porter Jr., who reportedly was off limits in James Harden talks.
New Orleans could trade four first-rounders in the next six years (one of those from the Lakers) and some combination of Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Jaxson Hayes.
Toronto hypothetically could offer three picks in the next six years and a player package built around Pascal Siakam and Fred Van Vleet, but that would hurt the Raptors more than help, and it’s dubious whether Beal would have interest.
Indiana could offer three picks in the next six years, but not sure why Beal would have interest in joining a potential sixth or seventh seed.
If you extend the list of options to teams that aren’t top four seed contenders but have the pieces to become one, the Hawks would have the assets to make a legitimate bid.
Atlanta could offer three picks in the next six years and a couple of its young players (DeAndre Hunter? Cam Reddish? Impending restricted free agent John Collins)?
Houston could offer a flurry of picks — its own and those acquired from Brooklyn — but not sure why the Rockets would do that after acquiring Victor Oladipo or why this situation would appeal to Beal.
And I’m not sure why San Antonio, Orlando, Cleveland or Sacramento — which have a full collection of draft picks to deal — would appeal to Beal.
So if Beal becomes available, the teams that should most concern the Heat should be Boston, Philadelphia, Denver and New Orleans because they have the currency Miami lacks — available first-round picks to trade.
The Heat could offer — at best — Tyler Herro, Precious Achiuwa, Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, cap fillers and 2025 and 2027 first-rounders (and a case could be made either way if that’s too much), but would still be at risk of being trumped by teams with more draft assets.
As for Beal, he scored 47 points tonight in Wednesday’s loss to New Orleans and has now lost an NBA-record 10 consecutive games when scoring at least 40 points.
Beal gave no indication that he has asked for a trade.
“It’s tough,” he told Wizards reporters, with Washington now 3-11. “We want to win. I want to win. This is why I stayed. I want to win (here). I figure this is the place I can get it done.”
So are you frustrated?
“Is the sky blue?” Beal said.
Beal will make $34.5 million next season with a $37.3 million player option for 2022-23.
Here’s part 1 of my Beal series.
This story was originally published January 28, 2021 at 1:02 PM.
