One area — less glaring than others — the Dolphins still need to address. And draft talk
A six-pack of Miami Dolphins notes on a Wednesday:
▪ Because the Dolphins were so exceptional in several key defensive categories — best in third-down conversion defense; sixth-best in points allowed per game; first in takeaways per game — that masked an issue that isn’t a big weakness but isn’t a strength, either:
Run defense.
Miami permitted 4.5 yards per carry, which tied for 17th to 20th in the league. That’s the same average the Dolphins permitted per carry in 2019, though the 2019 team allowed more yards on the ground than the 2020 team (2,166 to 1,862).
How important is that statistic? This past season, four teams held opponents to less than 4.0 yards per carry this past season, and all four were playoff teams: Tampa Bay (3.8), Indianapolis (3.8), New Orleans (3.8) and Seattle (3.9).
One of the teams that led the league in that category won the Super Bowl, though it’s not the primary reason for the Buccaneers’ success, of course. None of the bottom six teams in that category made the playoffs.
Here’s the way to overcome allowing 4.5 per carry: Having an elite offense, like Kansas City (which also allowed 4.5 per run), Green Bay (4.6) and Buffalo (which permitted 4.7).
“I know one thing we do need to improve is — it’s not horrific, but you can always get better — is our run game,” safety Eric Rowe said. “Especially early on in the year, we started struggling against the run and from then on, once teams know what you’re weak at, they’re going to keep attacking it. So I know that’s one thing that definitely we can work on for next year.
“Obviously we’ve got to keep the takeaways high. The run game; if we can just get that nailed down from the start, it’d be a lot easier.”
Here’s the good news: Miami has found an ascending talented nose tackle, Raekwon Davis, who has the ability to be a very good run-stuffer.
Among all qualifying NFL interior linemen, Davis and Christian Wilkins both ranked in the top half against the run, per Pro Football Focus.
Among all qualifying NFL edge players, Andrew Van Ginkel (12th against the run), Shaq Lawson and Emmanuel Ogbah ranked in the top half against the run.
And among all qualifying NFL linebackers excluding aforementioned ones, Kyle Van Noy and Elandon Roberts ranked in the top half against the run. Roberts, a free agent, is coming off a serious knee injury, and his agent declined to say if he will be ready for the 2021 season.
But Dolphins front seven players Jerome Baker and safeties Bobby McCain and Rowe ranked in the bottom half against the run. And aside from Van Ginkel and Wilkins (18th), no other front seven Dolphins player ranked among the top 20 against the run in their respective position group, according to PFF’s grades.
So the Dolphins must hope that Davis and Wilkins take another step, figure out what to do with safeties who are better in coverage than against the run and add more more quality front seven defenders who can stop the run and rush the quarterback. Easier said than done.
▪ And here’s the other thing: As much as the Dolphins would love to add a great young pass rusher in the draft, they better be sure he can stop the run.
That’s the question with several of these top prospects, including UM defensive end Greg Rousseau, who would be an option for the Dolphins at No. 18. “As a run stopper, he has problems removing blockers and can get tossed around a bit,” CBS said in its draft previews.
On the flip side, Michigan defensive end Kwity Paye — also considered an option at No. 18 — is considered a strong run stuffer but has just 11.5 sacks in 28 college games, compared with Rousseau’s 15.5 sacks in 14 college games.
Wake Forest’s Carlos Basham also is considered solid against the run.
Tony Pauline, the longtime draft analyst, rates Rousseau as the best of the edge defenders in this draft but then has Basham, Paye, UM’s Jaelan Phillips and Texas’ Joseph Ossai as potential late first-/early second-round picks on his draft board.
Of the four, “Carlos Basham impresses me most on film,” Pauline wrote on profootballnetwork.com. “He’s the most consistent, the most explosive, and the most instinctive. His ability to make plays in space is as impressive as his pass-rush ability. For the record, I prefer Basham standing over tackle, as he seems to lose an edge out of a three-point stance.”
Tulsa linebacker Zaven Collins also is considered solid against the run; The Athletic’s Dane Brugler has Miami trading down from 18 to 24 (Pittsburgh’s pick) in the first round to take Collins.
▪ Pro Football Focus said Ted Karras was the best center added by any team in free agency last spring/summer and advocates the Dolphins re-signing him. Miami has conveyed to him that it wants to keep him but hasn’t yet made an offer.
“Karras was not all that impactful in the running game but was a standout in pass protection,” PFF said. “He gave up a pressure once every 57 dropbacks, the sixth-best rate among centers. He signed a one-year deal to join Miami, and the Dolphins would be wise to re-sign him this offseason.”
Karras said after the season that “I would love to be here in Miami. I got to play in 100 percent of the snaps. That’s the first I’ve ever done that in college or any time in my career.”
▪ NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah has the Dolphins taking LSU receiver Ja’Marr Chase third overall and Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith falling all the way to 14th to Minnesota.
Jeremiah has Miami taking Chase following Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville) and BYU QB Zach Wilson (Jets).
At No. 18, Jeremiah has Miami taking Alabama running back Najee Harris, adding: “After taking Chase at No. 3, the Dolphins double down on playmakers, reuniting Harris with former Alabama teammate Tua Tagovailoa. This would give Miami the makings of a dynamic, young offense.”
▪ Former Browns scout Matt Williamson, whose opinion we’ve always respected, makes the case for Miami taking Oregon tackle Penei Sewell third for this reason: “The Dolphins are an analytically-driven team and should realize that history shows that they can add great wide receiver help (and this is a deep draft at that position) later in the first round or in the second round. Offensive tackle is a much more difficult position to find, and Penei Sewell is a supreme prospect in the mold of Walter Jones.”
Williamson acknowledges that “many have a wide receiver going here to Miami with the pick they acquired from the Texans, and that very well could happen to help Tua Tagovailoa.” (My vote would be for trading down a bit to pick up a 2022 first-rounder or drafting Smith or Chase.)
▪ If Miami trades with quarterback-needy Carolina and moves down to the eighth pick, what are the odds of Alabama’s Smith or LSU’s Chase being there?
Chase seems highly unlikely. Smith is a possibility.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler could see Smith being there; he has Lawrence, BYU quarterback Zach Wilson, Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields, Oregon’s Sewell, UF tight end Kyle Pitts, Chase and North Dakota’s Trey Lance as the first seven picks in his mock draft, leaving Smith to the Dolphins at No. 8 in his trade-down scenario.
This story was originally published February 17, 2021 at 2:39 PM.
